European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The shareholder vote failed, but momentum builds: Despite only 19.35% support, institutional backing signals growing pressure on Rio Tinto’s board to revisit the dual-listed company structure in future.</li>
<li>Valuation gap widens, thesis strengthens: With RIO Ltd trading at a 23.2% premium over RIO plc, the economic case for unification — and the relative value trade — becomes increasingly compelling.</li>
<li>Not statistical arbitrage, but event-driven optionality: The long plc / short Ltd setup lacks persistent mean reversion but offers asymmetric upside if governance shifts, tax changes, or structural catalysts force convergence.</li>
</ul>


The shareholder vote failed, but momentum builds: Despite only 19.35% support, institutional backing signals growing pressure on Rio Tinto’s board to revisit the dual-listed company structure in future.
Valuation gap widens, thesis strengthens: With RIO Ltd trading at a 23.2% premium over RIO plc, the economic case for unification — and the relative value trade — becomes increasingly compelling.
Not statistical arbitrage, but event-driven optionality: The long plc / short Ltd setup lacks persistent mean reversion but offers asymmetric upside if governance shifts, tax changes, or structural catalysts force convergence.


Digging Deeper: The Vote Failed, But the Value in Rio Tinto’s Dual Listing Remains Untapped

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>Palliser Capital, which reportedly holds ~$300mn in <strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rio-tinto-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13:1" rel="noopener">Rio Tinto Ltd (RIO AU/LN)</a></strong> shares across its dual-head structure, has campaigned for near-on a year to unify the primary listing in Australia.</li>
<li>Palliser's reasonings (and others) to unify make sense, such as access to stock-based mergers and eliminating franking wastage. A recent independent assessment from Grant Thornton is also supportive of unification.</li>
<li>Shareholders will vote on the resolution on 3rd April  for UK-listed shares and 1st May for Australian-listed shares. The UK line holds the key to the vote outcome.</li>
</ul>


Palliser Capital, which reportedly holds ~$300mn in Rio Tinto Ltd (RIO AU/LN) shares across its dual-head structure, has campaigned for near-on a year to unify the primary listing in Australia.
Palliser's reasonings (and others) to unify make sense, such as access to stock-based mergers and eliminating franking wastage. A recent independent assessment from Grant Thornton is also supportive of unification.
Shareholders will vote on the resolution on 3rd April  for UK-listed shares and 1st May for Australian-listed shares. The UK line holds the key to the vote outcome.


Rio Tinto (RIO AU/LN): Shareholders To Vote On Merits Of Unification

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>Rio Tinto could remain in the FTSE 100 if it retains a premium London listing and meets FTSE Russell's UK nationality test, despite losing UK incorporation.</li>
<li>BHP's removal from the FTSE 100 in 2022 highlights the importance of maintaining a primary UK listing over UK incorporation alone.</li>
<li>FTSE 100 inclusion supports Rio Tinto’s access to UK and European capital markets, enhancing liquidity and flexibility for future share issuances.</li>
</ul>


Rio Tinto could remain in the FTSE 100 if it retains a premium London listing and meets FTSE Russell's UK nationality test, despite losing UK incorporation.
BHP's removal from the FTSE 100 in 2022 highlights the importance of maintaining a primary UK listing over UK incorporation alone.
FTSE 100 inclusion supports Rio Tinto’s access to UK and European capital markets, enhancing liquidity and flexibility for future share issuances.


Mine Over Matter: Will Rio Stay in the FTSE 100?

<ul>
<li>Unification could unlock $27-32B in value, driven by cost synergies, franking credit release, and index upweighting, enhancing Rio Tinto’s market positioning and shareholder returns.</li>
<li>$2.88B in franking credits are lost annually due to the DLC structure; unification enables full utilization via higher franked dividends and strategic off-market buybacks.</li>
<li>Increased ASX200 and FTSE100 weighting post-unification could drive $5-7B in passive fund inflows, improving liquidity, stock valuation, and institutional investor appeal.</li>
</ul>


Unification could unlock $27-32B in value, driven by cost synergies, franking credit release, and index upweighting, enhancing Rio Tinto’s market positioning and shareholder returns.
$2.88B in franking credits are lost annually due to the DLC structure; unification enables full utilization via higher franked dividends and strategic off-market buybacks.
Increased ASX200 and FTSE100 weighting post-unification could drive $5-7B in passive fund inflows, improving liquidity, stock valuation, and institutional investor appeal.


Rio Tinto Dual-Listed Company (DLC) Unification Analysis

Materials| Industrials |Commodities

Rahul Jain

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>After a blockbuster 2022 driven by lithium supercycle highs, Tianqi Lithium saw earnings swing into deep losses in 2024 amid price crashes.</li>
<li>Looking ahead, it plans to scale lithium chemical capacity to over 140,000 tons/year, deepen integration in China and Southeast Asia, and selectively invest in technologies like DLE.</li>
<li>While near-term profitability remains uncertain, current EV/EBITDA valuations below 5x suggest the downside may be priced in.</li>
</ul>


After a blockbuster 2022 driven by lithium supercycle highs, Tianqi Lithium saw earnings swing into deep losses in 2024 amid price crashes.
Looking ahead, it plans to scale lithium chemical capacity to over 140,000 tons/year, deepen integration in China and Southeast Asia, and selectively invest in technologies like DLE.
While near-term profitability remains uncertain, current EV/EBITDA valuations below 5x suggest the downside may be priced in.


Tianqi Lithium (002466.SZ / 9696.HK): Rebuilding Via Expansion, Valuations Appear Reasonable

Australia

Rio Tinto Limited is an international mining company.  The Company has interests in mining for aluminum, borax, coal, copper, gold, iron ore, lead, silver, tin, uranium, zinc, titanium dioxide feedstock, diamonds, talc and zircon. Dually-listed company with RIO LN.

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Rio Tinto Ltd (RIO AU)

Digging Deeper: The Vote Failed, But the Value in Rio Tinto’s Dual Listing Remains Untapped

Rio Tinto’s dual listing trades at a 23% gap—structurally unjustified and politically fragile. Long plc / short Ltd offers asymmetric, catalyst...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Rio Tinto (RIO AU/LN): Shareholders To Vote On Merits Of Unification

Rio Tinto Ltd (RIO AU) shareholders voted down (80.65% against, spread across two meetings in London and Perth) Palliser's proposal to review its...

David Blennerhassett

Mine Over Matter: Will Rio Stay in the FTSE 100?

Rio Tinto could remain in the FTSE 100 if it retains a premium London listing and meets FTSE Russell's UK nationality test, despite losing UK...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Rio Tinto Dual-Listed Company (DLC) Unification Analysis

Rio Tinto's unification could unlock $27-32B in value through cost synergies, franking credit release, and index upweighting, boosting market...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Tianqi Lithium (002466.SZ / 9696.HK): Rebuilding Via Expansion, Valuations Appear Reasonable

Tianqi Lithium faces deep losses in 2024 after a successful 2022, but plans to expand capacity and invest in new technologies for future growth.

Rahul Jain

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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Digging Deeper: The Vote Failed, But the Value in Rio Tinto’s Dual Listing Remains Untapped

Rio Tinto’s dual listing trades at a 23% gap—structurally unjustified and politically fragile. Long plc / short Ltd offers asymmetric, catalyst...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Rio Tinto (RIO AU/LN): Shareholders To Vote On Merits Of Unification

Rio Tinto Ltd (RIO AU) shareholders voted down (80.65% against, spread across two meetings in London and Perth) Palliser's proposal to review its...

David Blennerhassett

Mine Over Matter: Will Rio Stay in the FTSE 100?

​Rio Tinto could remain in the FTSE 100 if it retains a premium London listing and meets FTSE Russell's UK nationality test, despite losing UK...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Rio Tinto Dual-Listed Company (DLC) Unification Analysis

​Rio Tinto's unification could unlock $27-32B in value through cost synergies, franking credit release, and index upweighting, boosting market...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Tianqi Lithium (002466.SZ / 9696.HK): Rebuilding Via Expansion, Valuations Appear Reasonable

​Tianqi Lithium faces deep losses in 2024 after a successful 2022, but plans to expand capacity and invest in new technologies for future growth.

Rahul Jain

Rio Tinto could remain in the FTSE 100 if it retains a premium London listing and meets FTSE Russell's UK nationality test, despite losing UK...

Rio Tinto's unification could unlock $27-32B in value through cost synergies, franking credit release, and index upweighting, boosting market...

Tianqi Lithium faces deep losses in 2024 after a successful 2022, but plans to expand capacity and invest in new technologies for future growth.