Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>There continues to be little traction above $93 on the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), which remains the top-end of our anticipated 2023 trading range.</li>
<li>At the same time, we cannot get too bearish until there is a break below $90.50 short-term support.</li>
<li>EURO STOXX 50 pulling back to 4100-4200 buy area. TOPIX holding above 2120 support. Buy ideas within Technology, Construction Materials, gold miners, Utilities, other defensives.</li>
</ul>


There continues to be little traction above $93 on the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), which remains the top-end of our anticipated 2023 trading range.
At the same time, we cannot get too bearish until there is a break below $90.50 short-term support.
EURO STOXX 50 pulling back to 4100-4200 buy area. TOPIX holding above 2120 support. Buy ideas within Technology, Construction Materials, gold miners, Utilities, other defensives.


Japan Remains Leadership; Actionable Pullback in Europe; Downgrading China/Hong Kong

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), HDFC Securities

HDFC Securities

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

HDFC securities is the best online trading platform for stocks, IPOs, mutual fund in India. 

Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Nestle India: Nestle’s 1QCY23 earnings surprised positively, led by strong revenue performance. However, the margin saw a marginal miss</li><li>Domestic revenue grew 21% YoY while exports grew by 25%</li><li>The growth was led by a healthy balance of pricing, volume and mix (around mid-single-digit volume growth)</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Nestle India: Nestle’s 1QCY23 earnings surprised positively, led by strong revenue performance. However, the margin saw a marginal missDomestic revenue grew 21% YoY while exports grew by 25%The growth was led by a healthy balance of pricing, volume and mix (around mid-single-digit volume growth)Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

HSIE Results Daily: Nestle India, Bajaj Auto, AU Small Finance Bank, Persistent Systems

<ul><li>Nestle India: Nestle’s 1QCY23 earnings surprised positively, led by strong revenue performance</li><li>However, the margin saw a marginal miss. Domestic revenue grew 21% YoY while exports grew by 25%</li><li>The growth was led by a healthy balance of pricing, volume and mix (around mid-single-digit volume growth)</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Nestle India: Nestle’s 1QCY23 earnings surprised positively, led by strong revenue performanceHowever, the margin saw a marginal miss. Domestic revenue grew 21% YoY while exports grew by 25%The growth was led by a healthy balance of pricing, volume and mix (around mid-single-digit volume growth)Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

HSIE Results Daily - Nestle India, Bajaj Auto, AU Small Finance Bank, Persistent Systems

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Axis Direct

Axis Direct

Axis Direct is the flagship brand under Axis Securities Limited, a subsidiary of Axis Bank in India. 

Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Nestle delivered resilient all-round performance, driven by strong double-digit growth across all categories, with a healthy balance of the product mix, pricing and volume growth.</li><li>Domestic revenue grew 22% YoY while Exports grew 25% YoY led by the continued expansion in new markets and channels.</li><li>Furthermore, the management reiterated its RURBAN strategy is fueling overall rural growth.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Nestle delivered resilient all-round performance, driven by strong double-digit growth across all categories, with a healthy balance of the product mix, pricing and volume growth.Domestic revenue grew 22% YoY while Exports grew 25% YoY led by the continued expansion in new markets and channels.Furthermore, the management reiterated its RURBAN strategy is fueling overall rural growth.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Nestle India Ltd. - Robust Performance; Maintain BUY

<ul><li>Expect improvement in volume CAGR, revenue to grow by 10/9% on YoY/four-year CAGR: Our FMCG coverage universe is expected to deliver growth of 10/9% on YoY/four-year CAGR in revenue in Q4FY23 (vs 12/8% in Q4FY22 and 8/10% in Q3FY23)</li><li>Companies have started seeing a gradual recovery in demand, however, it still falls short of a full recovery</li><li>Urban markets returned to positive volume growth while rural markets still remain muted</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Expect improvement in volume CAGR, revenue to grow by 10/9% on YoY/four-year CAGR: Our FMCG coverage universe is expected to deliver growth of 10/9% on YoY/four-year CAGR in revenue in Q4FY23 (vs 12/8% in Q4FY22 and 8/10% in Q3FY23)Companies have started seeing a gradual recovery in demand, however, it still falls short of a full recoveryUrban markets returned to positive volume growth while rural markets still remain mutedContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

FMCG & Alco Bev: Respite in demand and margins pressure

India

Nestle India Ltd. manufactures brand name milk products and other food products. The Company's products include Everyday dairy whitener, milk powder and ghee, Milkmaid sweetened condensed milk and Cerelac weaning foods. Nestle's beverages include Nescafe and Sunrise coffee and Nesfit enriched glucose powder. Nestle also manufactures Maggi noodles, soups and sauces.

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Nestle India (NEST IN)

Japan Remains Leadership; Actionable Pullback in Europe; Downgrading China/Hong Kong

#Japan #Nikkei 225 and #TOPIX above base supports at 30,800 and 2120, respectively. We've discussed buying pullbacks to 1950-2000 on TOPIX, but it...

Vermilion Research

HSIE Results Daily: Nestle India, Bajaj Auto, AU Small Finance Bank, Persistent Systems

Nestle India: Nestle’s 1QCY23 earnings surprised positively, led by strong revenue performance. However, the margin saw a marginal miss

HDFC Securities

HSIE Results Daily - Nestle India, Bajaj Auto, AU Small Finance Bank, Persistent Systems

Nestle India: Nestle’s 1QCY23 earnings surprised positively, led by strong revenue performance. However, the margin saw a marginal miss. Domestic...

HDFC Securities

Nestle India Ltd. - Robust Performance; Maintain BUY

Nestle delivered resilient all-round performance, driven by strong double-digit growth across all categories, with a healthy balance of the product...

Axis Direct

FMCG & Alco Bev: Respite in demand and margins pressure

Our FMCG coverage universe is expected to deliver growth of 10/9% on YoY/four-year CAGR in revenue in Q4FY23 (vs 12/8% in Q4FY22 and 8/10% in Q3FY23)

HDFC Securities

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