Technology / Semiconductor / Internet Research

Nicolas Baratte

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Who wins the AI race is like asking ”who won the Internet?” Amazon, Google, Meta, Microsoft? Wait, maybe it’s ASML and TSMC? Do you see how dumb this question is? </li>
<li>If you trade stocks, you enjoy the “Google is back” moment. Or maybe that was last week’s trade. The market wants profits and margins. Revenue growth is no longer enough.</li>
<li>So, who wins the AI race? I will eventually buy,  hopefully early 2026: AMD, Google, LAM, Meta, Microsoft, Micron, Nvidia, TSMC. These are the category winners IMO</li>
</ul>


Who wins the AI race is like asking ”who won the Internet?” Amazon, Google, Meta, Microsoft? Wait, maybe it’s ASML and TSMC? Do you see how dumb this question is? 
If you trade stocks, you enjoy the “Google is back” moment. Or maybe that was last week’s trade. The market wants profits and margins. Revenue growth is no longer enough.
So, who wins the AI race? I will eventually buy,  hopefully early 2026: AMD, Google, LAM, Meta, Microsoft, Micron, Nvidia, TSMC. These are the category winners IMO


Semiconductor & Technology Specialist, Ingenuity

William Keating

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist

Ingenuity

Our focus is exclusively on in-depth research & consulting in the broader semiconductor industry. We focus on the key players, namely Intel, Micron, Qualcomm, Apple, Samsung, NVIDIA, AMD, TSMC & Global Foundries - as well as some of the lesser known, but nonetheless critical, companies such as ASML (for EUV), Mellanox, Cavium, Xilinx etc. We specialise in their products, roadmaps, process technologies, competitive advantages & threats etc. We also help our clients understand the implications of new and emerging technologies, e.g. 3D X-Point, 3D NAND, Carbon Nanotubes, Autonomous Driving, Graphene, Silicon Photonics, Wafer-Level Optics, Artificial Intelligence, FPGA, GPU, ASIC etc. 

Semiconductor Analysis & Research

<ul>
<li>Nanya last week announced that revenues for the month of July amounted to NT$5.3 billion, an increase of 31.4% MoM, and an increase of 95% YoY,</li>
<li>Micron this week revised upwards its guidance for the current quarter with a roughly $500 million increase in revenue, attributable primarily price increases for DDR5</li>
<li>Customisation of Micron's HBM4E base logic die is transforming their key customer relationships from commodity vendor to strategic ASIC design-like partner. That's good for Micron...   </li>
</ul>


Nanya last week announced that revenues for the month of July amounted to NT$5.3 billion, an increase of 31.4% MoM, and an increase of 95% YoY,
Micron this week revised upwards its guidance for the current quarter with a roughly $500 million increase in revenue, attributable primarily price increases for DDR5
Customisation of Micron's HBM4E base logic die is transforming their key customer relationships from commodity vendor to strategic ASIC design-like partner. That's good for Micron...   


Nanya July Revenue Soars 31% MoM As Micron Revises Current Quarter Guide Up >5%

<ul>
<li>Results and Guidance beat, driven by HBM very fast growth. HBM also generates higher margins and sucks up DRAM capacity, a secondary benefit. </li>
<li>HBM is still in year-2 of a 5-year journey. Industry revenues double in 2025 and Micron HBM revenue increase 5x in FY25. Expect Micron HBM to double in FY26. </li>
<li>Consensus is a tad too low for FY26, likely 10% too low. Consensus is very low for FY27, likely 25-30% too low. It’s hard for the sell-side to forecast hyper-growth.</li>
</ul>


Results and Guidance beat, driven by HBM very fast growth. HBM also generates higher margins and sucks up DRAM capacity, a secondary benefit. 
HBM is still in year-2 of a 5-year journey. Industry revenues double in 2025 and Micron HBM revenue increase 5x in FY25. Expect Micron HBM to double in FY26. 
Consensus is a tad too low for FY26, likely 10% too low. Consensus is very low for FY27, likely 25-30% too low. It’s hard for the sell-side to forecast hyper-growth.


Micron 3Q25 Beats by 13%, 4Q Guidance Beats by 14%. Consensus Forecasts for FY27 Too Low by 25-30%

<ul>
<li>Q325 revenues of $9.3 billion, up 15% QoQ and up 37% YoY and $500 million above the guided midpoint. This represented a new quarterly revenue record for the company</li>
<li>Micron forecasted current quarter revenues of $10.7 billion, up 15% QoQ, with gross margin of 42%, up 300 basis points sequentially</li>
<li>HBM negotiations for 2026 supply &amp; pricing still ongoing. Could Micron be holding out for a better deal?</li>
</ul>


Q325 revenues of $9.3 billion, up 15% QoQ and up 37% YoY and $500 million above the guided midpoint. This represented a new quarterly revenue record for the company
Micron forecasted current quarter revenues of $10.7 billion, up 15% QoQ, with gross margin of 42%, up 300 basis points sequentially
HBM negotiations for 2026 supply &amp; pricing still ongoing. Could Micron be holding out for a better deal?


Micron Q325 Earnings: NAND's Surprising Rebound While HBM Already @$6 Billion Annual Run Rate.

Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

<ul>
<li>Micron Results Beat Across the Board, AI Product Mix Drives Gross Margin Upside</li>
<li>No Evidence Yet of Hyperscaler Pullback, But No Significant Increase in Outlook Either</li>
<li>Conclusion: AI-Driven Strength Continues, But Divergence Across the Memory Supply Chain Persists</li>
</ul>


Micron Results Beat Across the Board, AI Product Mix Drives Gross Margin Upside
No Evidence Yet of Hyperscaler Pullback, But No Significant Increase in Outlook Either
Conclusion: AI-Driven Strength Continues, But Divergence Across the Memory Supply Chain Persists


Memory Monitor: Micron Reinforces AI Memory Tailwinds, But Broader Supply Chain Recovery Gradual

United States

Micron Technology, Inc., through its subsidiaries, manufactures and markets dynamic random access memory chips (DRAMs), very fast static random access memory chips (SRAMs), Flash Memory, other semiconductor components, and memory modules.

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Micron Technology (MU US)

Who’s Winning the AI Race?

The article questions the idea of "winning" the AI race and emphasizes the importance of profits and margins, suggesting potential category...

Nicolas Baratte

Nanya July Revenue Soars 31% MoM As Micron Revises Current Quarter Guide Up >5%

Customisation of Micron's HBM4E base logic die is transforming their key customer relationships from commodity vendor to strategic ASIC design-like...

William Keating

Micron 3Q25 Beats by 13%, 4Q Guidance Beats by 14%. Consensus Forecasts for FY27 Too Low by 25-30%

Micron's strong results and guidance driven by rapid growth of HBM, with potential for significant revenue increases in the coming years. Sell...

Nicolas Baratte

Micron Q325 Earnings: NAND's Surprising Rebound While HBM Already @$6 Billion Annual Run Rate.

Micron's HBM negotiations for 2026 supply & pricing are still ongoing. Could they be holding out for a better deal? Let's see...

William Keating

Memory Monitor: Micron Reinforces AI Memory Tailwinds, But Broader Supply Chain Recovery Gradual

Micron's strong results driven by AI products, but memory supply chain divergence persists with no significant outlook increase.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

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Who’s Winning the AI Race?

​The article questions the idea of "winning" the AI race and emphasizes the importance of profits and margins, suggesting potential category...

Nicolas Baratte

Nanya July Revenue Soars 31% MoM As Micron Revises Current Quarter Guide Up >5%

Customisation of Micron's HBM4E base logic die is transforming their key customer relationships from commodity vendor to strategic ASIC design-like...

William Keating

Micron 3Q25 Beats by 13%, 4Q Guidance Beats by 14%. Consensus Forecasts for FY27 Too Low by 25-30%

​Micron's strong results and guidance driven by rapid growth of HBM, with potential for significant revenue increases in the coming years. Sell...

Nicolas Baratte

Micron Q325 Earnings: NAND's Surprising Rebound While HBM Already @$6 Billion Annual Run Rate.

Micron's HBM negotiations for 2026 supply & pricing are still ongoing. Could they be holding out for a better deal? Let's see...

William Keating

Memory Monitor: Micron Reinforces AI Memory Tailwinds, But Broader Supply Chain Recovery Gradual

​Micron's strong results driven by AI products, but memory supply chain divergence persists with no significant outlook increase.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

The article questions the idea of "winning" the AI race and emphasizes the importance of profits and margins, suggesting potential category...

Micron's strong results and guidance driven by rapid growth of HBM, with potential for significant revenue increases in the coming years. Sell...

Micron's strong results driven by AI products, but memory supply chain divergence persists with no significant outlook increase.