Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs Specialist, Objective Analysis

Jim Handy

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs Specialist

Objective Analysis

Objective Analysis offers third-party independent market research and data for the semiconductor industry and investors in the semiconductor industry.

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Micron Technology reported very positive revenues this quarter and a return to profitability</li>
<li>A large part of this stems from the impact that HBM demand is constraining production of standard DDR5 DRAM, driving it into a shortage</li>
<li>This is good news for Micron and its DRAM competitors Samsung and SK hynix</li>
</ul>


Micron Technology reported very positive revenues this quarter and a return to profitability
A large part of this stems from the impact that HBM demand is constraining production of standard DDR5 DRAM, driving it into a shortage
This is good news for Micron and its DRAM competitors Samsung and SK hynix


Micron Earnings: HBM Driving Price Increases in Other Sectors

Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR

<ul>
<li>Massive TSMC Rises 13.8% in Just a Week; Mediatek a Top 10 Gainer for Second Week in a Row</li>
<li>TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): Sales Should Be Gradually Increasing QoQ in 2024F; IPhone 16 Is on Schedule. </li>
<li>PC Monitor: Long Dell Vs. Short Acer Update; Dell &amp; HPQ Results Indicate Opportunity in Asus </li>
</ul>


Massive TSMC Rises 13.8% in Just a Week; Mediatek a Top 10 Gainer for Second Week in a Row
TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): Sales Should Be Gradually Increasing QoQ in 2024F; IPhone 16 Is on Schedule. 
PC Monitor: Long Dell Vs. Short Acer Update; Dell &amp; HPQ Results Indicate Opportunity in Asus 


Taiwan Tech Weekly: TSMC Surge Leads Taiwan Stocks Higher; Advanced Chip Packaging in Focus

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>There are no constituent changes for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vaneck-vectors-semiconductor" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32807:1" rel="noopener">VanEck Vectors Semiconductor (SMH US)</a> ETF in March but there are a lot of float and capping changes.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taiwan-semiconductor-sp-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8587:1" rel="noopener">Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR (TSM US)</a> is the largest buy while capping results in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nvidia-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5891:1" rel="noopener">NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US)</a> being the largest sell by far.</li>
<li>Estimated one-way turnover is 8.3% resulting in a round-trip trade of nearly US$3bn. There are a few stocks with more than 0.2x ADV to trade.</li>
</ul>


There are no constituent changes for the VanEck Vectors Semiconductor (SMH US) ETF in March but there are a lot of float and capping changes.

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR (TSM US) is the largest buy while capping results in NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US) being the largest sell by far.
Estimated one-way turnover is 8.3% resulting in a round-trip trade of nearly US$3bn. There are a few stocks with more than 0.2x ADV to trade.


MV US Listed Semiconductor 25 Index Rebalance: Over US$1bn to Sell in NVIDIA

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>The AI GPU market has been exploding, and this has turned the DRAM market's downturn into a strong upturn</li>
<li>With this growth, DRAM manufacturers have seen their business turn around, thanks to increased use of HBM</li>
<li>Two questions concern us: Will AI growth last? Will increased competition in HBM DRAM create a price collapse?</li>
</ul>


The AI GPU market has been exploding, and this has turned the DRAM market's downturn into a strong upturn
With this growth, DRAM manufacturers have seen their business turn around, thanks to increased use of HBM
Two questions concern us: Will AI growth last? Will increased competition in HBM DRAM create a price collapse?


The Big Question: Can Today's AI Surge Last?

<ul>
<li>Mediatek Top Performer; Showcasing New AI Capabilities at the Mobile World Congress in Barcelona</li>
<li>Memory Monitor: Competition Is Hotting Up for Key Memory Chips Nvidia Depends On; Nanya Left Out?</li>
<li>Novatek (3034.TT): It Has Been Qualified by the IPhone 16 for OLED Driver IC</li>
</ul>


Mediatek Top Performer; Showcasing New AI Capabilities at the Mobile World Congress in Barcelona
Memory Monitor: Competition Is Hotting Up for Key Memory Chips Nvidia Depends On; Nanya Left Out?
Novatek (3034.TT): It Has Been Qualified by the IPhone 16 for OLED Driver IC


Taiwan Tech Weekly: Mediatek Surges After Showcasing Breathtaking AI Capabilities; Novatek; Nanya

United States

Micron Technology, Inc., through its subsidiaries, manufactures and markets dynamic random access memory chips (DRAMs), very fast static random access memory chips (SRAMs), Flash Memory, other semiconductor components, and memory modules.

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Micron Technology (MU US)

Micron Earnings: HBM Driving Price Increases in Other Sectors

Micron Technology sees positive revenues and profitability due to HBM demand creating a DDR5 DRAM shortage, benefiting Micron, Samsung, and SK hynix.

Jim Handy

Taiwan Tech Weekly: TSMC Surge Leads Taiwan Stocks Higher; Advanced Chip Packaging in Focus

TSMC and Mediatek see significant stock gains, with TSMC ramping advanced packaging capacity and the iPhone 16 is on schedule. Dell and HPQ...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

MV US Listed Semiconductor 25 Index Rebalance: Over US$1bn to Sell in NVIDIA

TSMC is the largest buy and NVIDIA is the largest sell at the SMH rebalance in March. Estimated one-way turnover is 8.3% resulting in a round-trip...

Brian Freitas

The Big Question: Can Today's AI Surge Last?

Today there's a surge in AI spending, and this has led to a recovery for DRAM makers. This Insight questions where this money is coming from, and...

Jim Handy

Taiwan Tech Weekly: Mediatek Surges After Showcasing Breathtaking AI Capabilities; Novatek; Nanya

Mediatek top performer as it debuts new AI capabilities at the Mobile World Congress; Competition hotting up for memory chips Nvidia depends on;...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Micron Earnings: HBM Driving Price Increases in Other Sectors

​Micron Technology sees positive revenues and profitability due to HBM demand creating a DDR5 DRAM shortage, benefiting Micron, Samsung, and SK hynix.

Jim Handy

Taiwan Tech Weekly: TSMC Surge Leads Taiwan Stocks Higher; Advanced Chip Packaging in Focus

​TSMC and Mediatek see significant stock gains, with TSMC ramping advanced packaging capacity and the iPhone 16 is on schedule. Dell and HPQ...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

MV US Listed Semiconductor 25 Index Rebalance: Over US$1bn to Sell in NVIDIA

TSMC is the largest buy and NVIDIA is the largest sell at the SMH rebalance in March. Estimated one-way turnover is 8.3% resulting in a round-trip...

Brian Freitas

The Big Question: Can Today's AI Surge Last?

Today there's a surge in AI spending, and this has led to a recovery for DRAM makers. This Insight questions where this money is coming from, and...

Jim Handy

Taiwan Tech Weekly: Mediatek Surges After Showcasing Breathtaking AI Capabilities; Novatek; Nanya

​Mediatek top performer as it debuts new AI capabilities at the Mobile World Congress; Competition hotting up for memory chips Nvidia depends on;...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Micron Technology sees positive revenues and profitability due to HBM demand creating a DDR5 DRAM shortage, benefiting Micron, Samsung, and SK hynix.

TSMC and Mediatek see significant stock gains, with TSMC ramping advanced packaging capacity and the iPhone 16 is on schedule. Dell and HPQ...

Mediatek top performer as it debuts new AI capabilities at the Mobile World Congress; Competition hotting up for memory chips Nvidia depends on;...