Technology / Semiconductor / Internet Research

Nicolas Baratte

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>2Q26 (Jul-25) revenue growth 56% YoY, despite a sharp decline in China revenue (-24% YoY). No H20 revenues from China. H20 charges normalize, margins improve, Net Income 5% above Consensus. </li>
<li>3Q26 revenue growth stable at 54% YoY, not including any H20 revenues from China. Upside from H20 at $2-5bn, max revenue growth 68% YoY. 3Q guidance ~3% above Consensus.   </li>
<li>The stock is not expensive. Trading at its average 47x trailing PEx, 33x forward. Very little risk to Consensus expectations over FY26-28. </li>
</ul>


2Q26 (Jul-25) revenue growth 56% YoY, despite a sharp decline in China revenue (-24% YoY). No H20 revenues from China. H20 charges normalize, margins improve, Net Income 5% above Consensus. 
3Q26 revenue growth stable at 54% YoY, not including any H20 revenues from China. Upside from H20 at $2-5bn, max revenue growth 68% YoY. 3Q guidance ~3% above Consensus.   
The stock is not expensive. Trading at its average 47x trailing PEx, 33x forward. Very little risk to Consensus expectations over FY26-28. 


NVDA 2Q26 (Jul-25) Small Beat. 3Q26 (Sept-25) Small Beat. Everything Is on Track, Don’t Blink.

<ul>
<li>ASML has been underperforming for 18 months. Recent downgrades are a delayed recognition of reality. ASML’s management goals for 2030 (10% revenue growth Cagr) are ok (plausible) </li>
<li>But growth is slowing fast in 2H25-1H26. Growth should re-accelerate in 2H26 as the impact of China and  Mature node lower spending, multiple delays (Intel, Samsung) is fading away. </li>
<li>The stock is getting cheaper, but lacks catalysts for another 2-3 quarters. Trading at 25x forward PEx, that’s reasonable given the firm’s intrinsic qualities.</li>
</ul>


ASML has been underperforming for 18 months. Recent downgrades are a delayed recognition of reality. ASML’s management goals for 2030 (10% revenue growth Cagr) are ok (plausible) 
But growth is slowing fast in 2H25-1H26. Growth should re-accelerate in 2H26 as the impact of China and  Mature node lower spending, multiple delays (Intel, Samsung) is fading away. 
The stock is getting cheaper, but lacks catalysts for another 2-3 quarters. Trading at 25x forward PEx, that’s reasonable given the firm’s intrinsic qualities.


ASML Downgrades, Semi Production Equipment Demand

<ul>
<li>April 2025, the US Gvt extended restrictions on Nvidia’s China-specific H20 chip. Restriction also apply to H20’s memory bandwidth. This means SK Hynix HBM and TSMC CoWoS.   </li>
<li>Nvidia new China-specific chip derive from this: a downgraded chip, half a Blackwell, without HBM-CoWoS packaging. Time to design, manufacture, could lead to ~15% downside risk to FY26 Consensus?   </li>
<li>FY26 revenues could land at US$175bn or  -12% below Consensus at 199bn. $175bn implies 35% growth YoY, Consensus expects 52%. The stock trades at “low” 30x FY26 and 24x FY27.</li>
</ul>


April 2025, the US Gvt extended restrictions on Nvidia’s China-specific H20 chip. Restriction also apply to H20’s memory bandwidth. This means SK Hynix HBM and TSMC CoWoS.   
Nvidia new China-specific chip derive from this: a downgraded chip, half a Blackwell, without HBM-CoWoS packaging. Time to design, manufacture, could lead to ~15% downside risk to FY26 Consensus?   
FY26 revenues could land at US$175bn or  -12% below Consensus at 199bn. $175bn implies 35% growth YoY, Consensus expects 52%. The stock trades at “low” 30x FY26 and 24x FY27.


Nvidia’s Jensen Complaining About Export Restrictions to China: How Much Is at Stake? Quite a Lot.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Import tariff into the US: Korea 25%, Taiwan 32%. But the White house clarified: no Reciprocal Tariff on semiconductors.  </li>
<li>There are other exemption (pharmaceuticals, lumber, certain minerals not available in the US). But then Apple or Nvidia don’t import Semis from Taiwan or Korea. </li>
<li>They import iPhones from China / India or Servers made in Taiwan. Is it a little bug to be fixed? There’s an interesting loophole: 10% tariff on Singapore.  </li>
</ul>


Import tariff into the US: Korea 25%, Taiwan 32%. But the White house clarified: no Reciprocal Tariff on semiconductors.  
There are other exemption (pharmaceuticals, lumber, certain minerals not available in the US). But then Apple or Nvidia don’t import Semis from Taiwan or Korea. 
They import iPhones from China / India or Servers made in Taiwan. Is it a little bug to be fixed? There’s an interesting loophole: 10% tariff on Singapore.  


No Tariffs on Semiconductors – but Does It Matter?

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs Specialist, Objective Analysis

Jim Handy

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs Specialist

Objective Analysis

Objective Analysis offers third-party independent market research and data for the semiconductor industry and investors in the semiconductor industry.

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs

<ul>
<li>Hyperscaler CapEx could be slowing down, based on 4Q24 spending</li>
<li>Microsoft made a significant cut in Q4, but Amazon, Facebook, and Alibaba all made big increases</li>
<li>Industry CapEx as a percent of revenue has slowed its growth</li>
</ul>


Hyperscaler CapEx could be slowing down, based on 4Q24 spending
Microsoft made a significant cut in Q4, but Amazon, Facebook, and Alibaba all made big increases
Industry CapEx as a percent of revenue has slowed its growth


United States

Micron Technology, Inc., through its subsidiaries, manufactures and markets dynamic random access memory chips (DRAMs), very fast static random access memory chips (SRAMs), Flash Memory, other semiconductor components, and memory modules.

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Micron Technology (MU US)

NVDA 2Q26 (Jul-25) Small Beat. 3Q26 (Sept-25) Small Beat. Everything Is on Track, Don’t Blink.

Nvidia strong revenue growth in 2Q26 and 3Q26 despite decline in China revenue, with upside potential from H20 and margins improving. Stock not...

Nicolas Baratte

ASML Downgrades, Semi Production Equipment Demand

ASML's underperformance is a delayed reality check, but management's 2030 goals are plausible. Growth is slowing but will re-accelerate in 2H26....

Nicolas Baratte

Nvidia’s Jensen Complaining About Export Restrictions to China: How Much Is at Stake? Quite a Lot.

Nvidia new China-specific chip GPU will take time, leading to potential downside risk for FY26 revenues. But the stock is trading at low multiples

Nicolas Baratte

No Tariffs on Semiconductors – but Does It Matter?

US import tariffs on Korea and Taiwan are high, but no reciprocal tariff on semiconductors. Apple and Nvidia don't import semis from these...

Nicolas Baratte

IS AI Spending Poised to Fall?

Hyperscaler CapEx growth may be slowing as Microsoft cuts spending in Q4 while Amazon, Facebook, and Alibaba increase theirs, leading to a...

Jim Handy

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

NVDA 2Q26 (Jul-25) Small Beat. 3Q26 (Sept-25) Small Beat. Everything Is on Track, Don’t Blink.

Nvidia strong revenue growth in 2Q26 and 3Q26 despite decline in China revenue, with upside potential from H20 and margins improving. Stock not...

Nicolas Baratte

ASML Downgrades, Semi Production Equipment Demand

​ASML's underperformance is a delayed reality check, but management's 2030 goals are plausible. Growth is slowing but will re-accelerate in 2H26....

Nicolas Baratte

Nvidia’s Jensen Complaining About Export Restrictions to China: How Much Is at Stake? Quite a Lot.

​Nvidia new China-specific chip GPU will take time, leading to potential downside risk for FY26 revenues. But the stock is trading at low multiples

Nicolas Baratte

No Tariffs on Semiconductors – but Does It Matter?

​US import tariffs on Korea and Taiwan are high, but no reciprocal tariff on semiconductors. Apple and Nvidia don't import semis from these...

Nicolas Baratte

IS AI Spending Poised to Fall?

​Hyperscaler CapEx growth may be slowing as Microsoft cuts spending in Q4 while Amazon, Facebook, and Alibaba increase theirs, leading to a...

Jim Handy

ASML's underperformance is a delayed reality check, but management's 2030 goals are plausible. Growth is slowing but will re-accelerate in 2H26....

Nvidia new China-specific chip GPU will take time, leading to potential downside risk for FY26 revenues. But the stock is trading at low multiples

US import tariffs on Korea and Taiwan are high, but no reciprocal tariff on semiconductors. Apple and Nvidia don't import semis from these...

Hyperscaler CapEx growth may be slowing as Microsoft cuts spending in Q4 while Amazon, Facebook, and Alibaba increase theirs, leading to a...