Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs Specialist, Objective Analysis

Jim Handy

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs Specialist

Objective Analysis

Objective Analysis offers third-party independent market research and data for the semiconductor industry and investors in the semiconductor industry.

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs

Equity Bottom-Up

The COVID-19 virus has undertaken a significant upturn in Korea.  Since Samsung and SK hynix dominate two of the markets that Micron is in, one would naturally anticipate that the outbreak could benefit Micron, a US-based firm.  In this SmartKarma Insight we will examine that line of thought and see why it misses key facts that must be considered.

The COVID-19 virus has undertaken a significant upturn in Korea.  Since Samsung and SK hynix dominate two of the markets that Micron is in, one would naturally anticipate that the outbreak could benefit Micron, a US-based firm.  In this SmartKarma Insight we will examine that line of thought and see why it misses key facts that must be considered.

Does COVID-19 Imply A Bonanza for Micron?

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

It's still early to understand the full implications of Wuhan's coronavirus outbreak, but we can look to the 2008 global financial collapse and current market conditions to get a good grasp of where the extremes are.  In brief, the current market oversupply limits the gap between the best-case and worst-case scenarios.  Without any coronavirus impact, the market should experience a decline of 0-5%.  If there is a serious impact from the coronavirus then a decline of no more than 10% can be expected.

It's still early to understand the full implications of Wuhan's coronavirus outbreak, but we can look to the 2008 global financial collapse and current market conditions to get a good grasp of where the extremes are.  In brief, the current market oversupply limits the gap between the best-case and worst-case scenarios.  Without any coronavirus impact, the market should experience a decline of 0-5%.  If there is a serious impact from the coronavirus then a decline of no more than 10% can be expected.

Chips Vs. Coronavirus: Best-Case & Worst-Case Scenarios

The Semiconductor Industry Association today announced that 2019 semiconductor revenues were 12.5% below those of 2018.  This number should come as no surprise to those who have been watching the market closely.  The market collapsed, as it always does, through 2019 and is likely to experience little growth, if any, in 2020.

The Semiconductor Industry Association today announced that 2019 semiconductor revenues were 12.5% below those of 2018.  This number should come as no surprise to those who have been watching the market closely.  The market collapsed, as it always does, through 2019 and is likely to experience little growth, if any, in 2020.

Semiconductor Market Year-End Tally: -12.5%

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

We believe U.S. equities remain bullish but if they are to continue their ascent we would prefer that those areas also associated with economic expansion could also grab some of the upward momentum. This includes; Energy, Materials, Industrial Manufacturing and the Transportation Sector and even Small-caps. A narrowing of breadth as we have all seen in the past does not typically end well.  Open the attached file to read our complete U.S. Strategy document, and to find links to detailed comments and recommendations for each of our 12 Sectors.

We believe U.S. equities remain bullish but if they are to continue their ascent we would prefer that those areas also associated with economic expansion could also grab some of the upward momentum. This includes; Energy, Materials, Industrial Manufacturing and the Transportation Sector and even Small-caps. A narrowing of breadth as we have all seen in the past does not typically end well.  Open the attached file to read our complete U.S. Strategy document, and to find links to detailed comments and recommendations for each of our 12 Sectors.

U.S. Equity Strategy: Bullish, but Extended

Mark Artherton, CFA

Inteqres

Samsung Electronics is a key play on the roll-out of 5G handsets and network equipment.  The impact from the 5G roll out comes from improved conditions for DRAM/NAND volume and pricing as well as network hardware and handset sales.  This catalyst has been playing out for several months and we would continue to ride this in the near future (notwithstanding concerns over coronavirus) but we struggle to see much more in the way of additional catalysts for the Samsung Electronics share price.
In the absence of significant other catalysts, we believe that the Samsung share price really will run out of steam over the next few months.  We remain positive but will look to trim overweight positions.

Samsung Electronics is a key play on the roll-out of 5G handsets and network equipment.  The impact from the 5G roll out comes from improved conditions for DRAM/NAND volume and pricing as well as network hardware and handset sales.  This catalyst has been playing out for several months and we would continue to ride this in the near future (notwithstanding concerns over coronavirus) but we struggle to see much more in the way of additional catalysts for the Samsung Electronics share price.
In the absence of significant other catalysts, we believe that the Samsung share price really will run out of steam over the next few months.  We remain positive but will look to trim overweight positions. 

Samsung Electronics Initiation - Expectations Close to Running Too High - Inteqres Practical Views

United States

Micron Technology, Inc., through its subsidiaries, manufactures and markets dynamic random access memory chips (DRAMs), very fast static random access memory chips (SRAMs), Flash Memory, other semiconductor components, and memory modules.

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Micron Technology (MU US)

Does COVID-19 Imply A Bonanza for Micron?

The COVID-19 virus has undertaken a significant upturn in Korea. Since Samsung and SK hynix dominate two of the markets that Micron is in, one...

Jim Handy

Chips Vs. Coronavirus: Best-Case & Worst-Case Scenarios

It's still early to understand the full implications of Wuhan's coronavirus outbreak, but we can look to the 2008 global financial collapse and...

Jim Handy

Semiconductor Market Year-End Tally: -12.5%

The Semiconductor Industry Association today announced that 2019 semiconductor revenues were 12.5% below those of 2018. This number should come as...

Jim Handy

U.S. Equity Strategy: Bullish, but Extended

We believe U.S. equities remain bullish but if they are to continue their ascent we would prefer that those areas also associated with economic...

Vermilion Research

Samsung Electronics Initiation - Expectations Close to Running Too High - Inteqres Practical Views

Samsung Electronics is a key play on the roll-out of 5G handsets and network equipment. The impact from the 5G roll out comes from improved...

Mark Artherton, CFA

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