Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets, JapanConsuming

Michael Causton

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets

Real Insight on Japanese Consumer Markets

JapanConsuming

JapanConsuming is a specialist research firm producing intelligence on Japanese retail and consumer markets. Founded in 2000, JapanConsuming has become the leading provider of insights on Japanese retailers and consumer trends to retailers, brands, government agencies and investors. As well as a highly regarded monthly report on the market, JapanConsuming produces in-depth reports on retail sectors, seminars on key trends and telephone consulting to investors on trends and retailers.

JapanConsuming was founded by Michael Causton and Roy Larke. 

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Core inflation rates remain stubbornly high and real wages are still falling. </li>
<li>Surveys suggest one more major round of price hikes in October but the government still thinks prices will stabilise below its 2% target by the end of the year.</li>
<li>The increases are lowering consumer confidence – bad news for most retailers, although major discount chains are making hay while the sun, well, doesn’t shine.</li>
</ul>


Core inflation rates remain stubbornly high and real wages are still falling. 
Surveys suggest one more major round of price hikes in October but the government still thinks prices will stabilise below its 2% target by the end of the year.
The increases are lowering consumer confidence – bad news for most retailers, although major discount chains are making hay while the sun, well, doesn’t shine.


Japanese Prices Rise Again; 60% of Consumers Feeling the Pinch and Looking for Better Value

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/trial-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36821:1" rel="noopener">Trial Holdings (5882 JP)</a> raised around US$259m in Mar 2024. Its IPO lockup is set to expire soon.</li>
<li>TH operates a network of retail stores in Japan that offer one-stop shopping under its everyday low price (EDLP) model.</li>
<li>In this note, we will talk about the lockup dynamics and possible placement.</li>
</ul>



Trial Holdings (5882 JP) raised around US$259m in Mar 2024. Its IPO lockup is set to expire soon.
TH operates a network of retail stores in Japan that offer one-stop shopping under its everyday low price (EDLP) model.
In this note, we will talk about the lockup dynamics and possible placement.


Trial Holdings IPO Lockup - Large Number of Small Holders Hold Around US$400m of Stock

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Despite <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/seven-i-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1041:1" rel="noopener">Seven &amp; I Holdings (3382 JP)</a>'s rejection, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alimentation-couche-tard-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25103:1" rel="noopener">Alimentation Couche-Tard (ATD CN)</a> remains prepared to enter collaborative and friendly discussions to focus on finding greater value for 7&amp;i shareholders. </li>
<li>Couche-Tard’s options are to return with a revised offer, go hostile or walk away. Couche-Tard will likely test the Board’s resolve by returning with a higher offer.</li>
<li>The Board’s options are to go through the motions (appointing IFAs), conduct a market check or launch a more aggressive action plan to placate restive shareholders. </li>
</ul>


Despite Seven &amp; I Holdings (3382 JP)'s rejection, Alimentation Couche-Tard (ATD CN) remains prepared to enter collaborative and friendly discussions to focus on finding greater value for 7&amp;i shareholders. 
Couche-Tard’s options are to return with a revised offer, go hostile or walk away. Couche-Tard will likely test the Board’s resolve by returning with a higher offer.
The Board’s options are to go through the motions (appointing IFAs), conduct a market check or launch a more aggressive action plan to placate restive shareholders. 


Seven & I Holdings (3382 JP): State of Play

Japanese Equity Specialist, Ortus Advisors

Andrew Jackson

Japanese Equity Specialist

Ortus Advisors

<ul>
<li>Not much lead from the US, although Broadcom numbers missing after hours set a slightly negative tone for tech, despite NVDA and TSLA posting gains.</li>
<li>The market should like the news that 3382 7&amp;I is engaging with ACT and asking for a higher bid, which may also indicate their failure to attain 'core' status from the JP Govt.</li>
<li>PPIH looks oversold after missing out on NKY225 inclusion yesterday, especially in comparison to Baycurrent who also missed, yet finished the day +4.5%.</li>
</ul>


Not much lead from the US, although Broadcom numbers missing after hours set a slightly negative tone for tech, despite NVDA and TSLA posting gains.
The market should like the news that 3382 7&amp;I is engaging with ACT and asking for a higher bid, which may also indicate their failure to attain 'core' status from the JP Govt.
PPIH looks oversold after missing out on NKY225 inclusion yesterday, especially in comparison to Baycurrent who also missed, yet finished the day +4.5%.


Japan Morning Connection: 7&I, PPIH, Baycurrent

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>The Sep24 Nikkei 225 Review Results are out, discussed in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/sep24-nikkei-225-review-results-a-slightly-baffling-2-in-2-out" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:157890" rel="noopener">Sep24 Nikkei 225 Review Results:  A Slightly Baffling 2 IN, 2 OUT</a>. </li>
<li>That lets us move to Mar25 Nikkei 225 Rebal predictions. For the moment, I see 2 IN and 2 OUT, again. </li>
<li>And at the moment, another Fast Retailing capping exercise looks likely, for roughly US$3bn a side to trade.</li>
</ul>


The Sep24 Nikkei 225 Review Results are out, discussed in Sep24 Nikkei 225 Review Results:  A Slightly Baffling 2 IN, 2 OUT. 
That lets us move to Mar25 Nikkei 225 Rebal predictions. For the moment, I see 2 IN and 2 OUT, again. 
And at the moment, another Fast Retailing capping exercise looks likely, for roughly US$3bn a side to trade.


Mar25 Nikkei 225 Rebal Predictions: Likely 2 IN, 2 OUT, Again; Minimal Surprise Factor

Japan

Pan Pacific International Holdings Corporation operates discount stores which sell consumer electronics, daily necessities, groceries, watches, and sporting goods. The Company mostly operates small scale stores based in Tokyo.

Pan Pacific International Holdings (7532 JP)

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Pan Pacific International Holdings (7532 JP)

Japanese Prices Rise Again; 60% of Consumers Feeling the Pinch and Looking for Better Value

Japanese consumer markets have three big trends: higher prices/squeezed incomes, doubling of single households and more people feeling the pinch....

Michael Causton

Trial Holdings IPO Lockup - Large Number of Small Holders Hold Around US$400m of Stock

Trial Holdings (5882 JP) raised around US$259m in Mar 2024. Its IPO lockup is set to expire soon which will release a large number of small...

Sumeet Singh

Seven & I Holdings (3382 JP): State of Play

Couche-Tard will likely return with a revised offer, which the Board will find a reason to reject. A binding proposal remains unlikely. The...

Arun George

Japan Morning Connection: 7&I, PPIH, Baycurrent

Slight negative tone for tech as Broadcom's earnings miss, while 7&I seeks higher bid from ACT and PPIH looks oversold post-NKY225 exclusion.

Andrew Jackson

Mar25 Nikkei 225 Rebal Predictions: Likely 2 IN, 2 OUT, Again; Minimal Surprise Factor

The Sep24 Nikkei 225 Review suggests Nikkei Index Committee "discretion" hinting at the scale of the next rebalance. The most interesting bit may...

Travis Lundy

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