Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

The risk of a pullback remains very real, however at this point the weight of the evidence suggests a meaningful pullback is not imminent. We recap important technical levels across market as well as Actionable Themes within the Consumer Staples, Health Care, and Technology sectors.

The risk of a pullback remains very real, however at this point the weight of the evidence suggests a meaningful pullback is not imminent. We recap important technical levels across market as well as Actionable Themes within the Consumer Staples, Health Care, and Technology sectors.

The global rally appears to be losing steam as the bearish rising wedge patterns we highlighted last week in the MSCI ACWI, ACWI ex-US, EM, and EAFE indexes ended up breaking down. Additionally, the aforementioned indexes and major indexes in Europe, Japan, and Hong Kong have been unable to break above longer-term resistance. While we believe global equities remain vulnerable to a pullback, some near-term consolidation is another possibility. For now we believe some consolidation makes sense as we remain in a sort of wait-and-see period as it relates to what will happen as countries and states aim to re-open.

The global rally appears to be losing steam as the bearish rising wedge patterns we highlighted last week in the MSCI ACWI, ACWI ex-US, EM, and EAFE indexes ended up breaking down. Additionally, the aforementioned indexes and major indexes in Europe, Japan, and Hong Kong have been unable to break above longer-term resistance. While we believe global equities remain vulnerable to a pullback, some near-term consolidation is another possibility. For now we believe some consolidation makes sense as we remain in a sort of wait-and-see period as it relates to what will happen as countries and states aim to re-open.

Global Equity Rally Losing Upside Momentum

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets, JapanConsuming

Michael Causton

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets

Real Insight on Japanese Consumer Markets

JapanConsuming

JapanConsuming is a specialist research firm producing intelligence on Japanese retail and consumer markets. Founded in 2000, JapanConsuming has become the leading provider of insights on Japanese retailers and consumer trends to retailers, brands, government agencies and investors. As well as a highly regarded monthly report on the market, JapanConsuming produces in-depth reports on retail sectors, seminars on key trends and telephone consulting to investors on trends and retailers.

JapanConsuming was founded by Michael Causton and Roy Larke. 

Equity Bottom-Up

Pan Pacific International Holdings / Equity Bottom-Up

Unlike the US and Europe, Japan had no off-price fashion market to speak of until last year when Geo Holdings, World and Joyful Honda launched Japanese versions of TJ Maxx.
Last month, Don Quijote operator, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pan-pacific-international-holdings-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13475:1" rel="noopener">Pan Pacific International (7532 JP)</a>, weighed in with its own chain, a move that is likely to spark a rush of stores and rapidly increasing popularity among consumers.

Unlike the US and Europe, Japan had no off-price fashion market to speak of until last year when Geo Holdings, World and Joyful Honda launched Japanese versions of TJ Maxx.
Last month, Don Quijote operator, Pan Pacific International (7532 JP), weighed in with its own chain, a move that is likely to spark a rush of stores and rapidly increasing popularity among consumers.

Donki to Ignite Off-Price Retail Market in Japan

Positive news flow surrounding COVID-19 is encouraging on many fronts. Still, despite encouraging news and the relief rally in global equities, history tells us that this is a fairly standard bear market rally in terms of its magnitude, making us believe the global equity market is not yet out of the woods. We are watching for signs of a turn of the tide. There has been significant damage inflicted and that damage is going to take time to repair. Actionable Themes in this report have representation in Staples, Health Care, Technology, and a collection of bottom-up ideas.

Positive news flow surrounding COVID-19 is encouraging on many fronts. Still, despite encouraging news and the relief rally in global equities, history tells us that this is a fairly standard bear market rally in terms of its magnitude, making us believe the global equity market is not yet out of the woods. We are watching for signs of a turn of the tide. There has been significant damage inflicted and that damage is going to take time to repair. Actionable Themes in this report have representation in Staples, Health Care, Technology, and a collection of bottom-up ideas. 

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

One month ago, illiquid small-cap TSE MOTHERS name <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/japan-asset-marketing-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20575:1" rel="noopener">Japan Asset Marketing (8922 JP)</a> announced a stock buyback tender at a 24% premium. This was discussed in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/japan-asset-marketing-8922-big-buyback" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:36389" rel="noopener">Japan Asset Marketing (8922) BIG Buyback</a>. The stock popped and traded a lot of volume. The buyback tender ended Friday. Results were announced Saturday 7 March. The stock should have fallen more on Thursday and Friday, especially as the maximum accretion (~8%) was way less than the premium (24%), and TOPIX is down 15.3% in the meantime. Float and impact discussed below.

One month ago, illiquid small-cap TSE MOTHERS name Japan Asset Marketing (8922 JP) announced a stock buyback tender at a 24% premium. This was discussed in Japan Asset Marketing (8922) BIG Buyback. The stock popped and traded a lot of volume. The buyback tender ended Friday. Results were announced Saturday 7 March. The stock should have fallen more on Thursday and Friday, especially as the maximum accretion (~8%) was way less than the premium (24%), and TOPIX is down 15.3% in the meantime. Float and impact discussed below.

Japan

Pan Pacific International Holdings Corporation operates discount stores which sell consumer electronics, daily necessities, groceries, watches, and sporting goods. The Company mostly operates small scale stores based in Tokyo.

Pan Pacific International Holdings (7532 JP)

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Pan Pacific International Holdings (7532 JP)

Battleground Spot For Global Equities

The risk of a pullback remains very real, however at this point the weight of the evidence suggests a meaningful pullback is not imminent. We recap...

Vermilion Research

Global Equity Rally Losing Upside Momentum

The global rally appears to be losing steam as the bearish rising wedge patterns we highlighted last week in the MSCI ACWI, ACWI ex-US, EM, and...

Vermilion Research

Donki to Ignite Off-Price Retail Market in Japan

Unlike the US and Europe, Japan had no off-price fashion market to speak of until last year when Geo Holdings, World and Joyful Honda launched...

Michael Causton

Major Indexes Testing Resistance

Positive news flow surrounding COVID-19 is encouraging on many fronts. Still, despite encouraging news and the relief rally in global equities,...

Vermilion Research

Japan Asset Marketing Buyback Complete

One month ago, illiquid small-cap TSE MOTHERS name Japan Asset Marketing (8922 JP) announced a stock buyback tender at a 24% premium. This was...

Travis Lundy

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