Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The review period for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225 Index</a> March rebalance ends in 3 weeks. There could be one outright change and one or two others driven by sector balance.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shift-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7266:1" rel="noopener">Shift Inc (3697 JP)</a> will have a 15:1 stock split next week and that puts the stock in the list of potential inclusions over the next couple of rebalances.</li>
<li>The recent drop in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fast-retailing-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:751:1" rel="noopener">Fast Retailing (9983 JP)</a>'s stock price will lead to a single step drop in the PAF. That means less passive selling and a smaller funding buy.</li>
</ul>


The review period for the Nikkei 225 Index March rebalance ends in 3 weeks. There could be one outright change and one or two others driven by sector balance.

Shift Inc (3697 JP) will have a 15:1 stock split next week and that puts the stock in the list of potential inclusions over the next couple of rebalances.
The recent drop in Fast Retailing (9983 JP)'s stock price will lead to a single step drop in the PAF. That means less passive selling and a smaller funding buy.


Nikkei 225 Index Rebalance Preview (Mar 2025): SHIFT Splits; Updated Ranking, Capping & Funding

Japanese Equity Specialist, Ortus Advisors

Andrew Jackson

Japanese Equity Specialist

Ortus Advisors

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Tech and Semi's rebounding sharply which should see related names in JP trade better after yesterdays persistent weakness.</li>
<li>Da Vinci procedures seeing strong growth...will Sysmex's Hinotori also fly? </li>
<li>Tourist numbers surging in JP should see YTD losers back in the spotlight.</li>
</ul>


Tech and Semi's rebounding sharply which should see related names in JP trade better after yesterdays persistent weakness.
Da Vinci procedures seeing strong growth...will Sysmex's Hinotori also fly? 
Tourist numbers surging in JP should see YTD losers back in the spotlight.


Japan Morning Connection: CPI to the Rescue for Risk-On Growth Style Plays

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>On 10 January, Bloomberg reported that Apollo is considering an equity commitment of JPY1.5 trillion in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/seven-i-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1041:1" rel="noopener">Seven &amp; I Holdings (3382 JP)</a> MBO. </li>
<li>Securing financing is a key challenge for the MBO. Apollo’s involvement suggests a shift to a higher mix of equity vs debt, which should ease concerns about securing debt financing. </li>
<li>The article suggests that the MBO valuation could be lower than previously reported. However, 7&amp;i's underlying value supports a JPY8 trillion MBO valuation (market cap). </li>
</ul>


On 10 January, Bloomberg reported that Apollo is considering an equity commitment of JPY1.5 trillion in the Seven &amp; I Holdings (3382 JP) MBO. 
Securing financing is a key challenge for the MBO. Apollo’s involvement suggests a shift to a higher mix of equity vs debt, which should ease concerns about securing debt financing. 
The article suggests that the MBO valuation could be lower than previously reported. However, 7&amp;i's underlying value supports a JPY8 trillion MBO valuation (market cap). 


Seven & I Holdings (3382 JP): The MBO Is Still Alive and Kicking

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>In December, I thought the March 2025 Nikkei 225 Rebalance was going to be 2 ADDs 2 DELETEs and a double-capping for Fast Retailing. </li>
<li>Fast Retailing has fallen sharply vs Nikkei 225, and another stock has announced a large-multiple share split, making it a strong candidate for Nikkei 225 ADDITION in March 2025.</li>
<li>There is short-term path risk on all three ADDs, but they are definitely worth watching. Keep an eye out for separate insights on two of these names.</li>
</ul>


In December, I thought the March 2025 Nikkei 225 Rebalance was going to be 2 ADDs 2 DELETEs and a double-capping for Fast Retailing. 
Fast Retailing has fallen sharply vs Nikkei 225, and another stock has announced a large-multiple share split, making it a strong candidate for Nikkei 225 ADDITION in March 2025.
There is short-term path risk on all three ADDs, but they are definitely worth watching. Keep an eye out for separate insights on two of these names.


[Quiddity Index Jan25] Nikkei 225 Mar Rebal: 3 IN, 3 OUT, $3bn One Way

<ul>
<li>The Sep24 Nikkei 225 Rebal was odd. They could have done 3. They did 2. For now, I still see 2 IN and 2 OUT for the Mar25 Nikkei225 Rebal.</li>
<li>There is also a DOUBLE-capping event for Fast Retailing which on 8% outperformance could become a TRIPLE-capping event. For now, the trade is shaping up to be US$7bn a side.</li>
<li>There is still a tech bent to potential ADDs. Some Consumer Goods stocks need stock splits to get in. Longer-term, the TOPIX Methodology Rejig is an interesting problem set.</li>
</ul>


The Sep24 Nikkei 225 Rebal was odd. They could have done 3. They did 2. For now, I still see 2 IN and 2 OUT for the Mar25 Nikkei225 Rebal.
There is also a DOUBLE-capping event for Fast Retailing which on 8% outperformance could become a TRIPLE-capping event. For now, the trade is shaping up to be US$7bn a side.
There is still a tech bent to potential ADDs. Some Consumer Goods stocks need stock splits to get in. Longer-term, the TOPIX Methodology Rejig is an interesting problem set.


Quiddity Leaderboard Mar25 Nikkei 225 Rebal: 2 IN, 2 OUT, $5.5bn+ Fastie to Sell, $7bn a Side

Japan

Pan Pacific International Holdings Corporation operates discount stores which sell consumer electronics, daily necessities, groceries, watches, and sporting goods. The Company mostly operates small scale stores based in Tokyo.

Pan Pacific International Holdings (7532 JP)

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Pan Pacific International Holdings (7532 JP)

Nikkei 225 Index Rebalance Preview (Mar 2025): SHIFT Splits; Updated Ranking, Capping & Funding

With 4 days left in the review period, Fast Retailing is now in double capping zone which would require passives to sell 13.3m shares in March. If...

Brian Freitas

Japan Morning Connection: CPI to the Rescue for Risk-On Growth Style Plays

Tech and Semi's rebounding should be positive for related JP names. Da Vinci procedures show strong numbers - what of Hinotori? JP tourist numbers...

Andrew Jackson

Seven & I Holdings (3382 JP): The MBO Is Still Alive and Kicking

Apollo’s involvement strongly signals the viability of the Ito family MBO. 7&i's underlying value supports a JPY8 trillion MBO valuation.

Arun George

[Quiddity Index Jan25] Nikkei 225 Mar Rebal: 3 IN, 3 OUT, $3bn One Way

Nikkei 225 March 2025 Rebalance could easily be three ADDs and three DELETEs this time. Last time it could have been too, but they only went for...

Travis Lundy

Quiddity Leaderboard Mar25 Nikkei 225 Rebal: 2 IN, 2 OUT, $5.5bn+ Fastie to Sell, $7bn a Side

The March 2025 Nikkei 225 rebal has <8 weeks to go before it is set. ADDs and DELETEs are mostly decided. The bigger question is the capping of...

Travis Lundy

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Nikkei 225 Index Rebalance Preview (Mar 2025): SHIFT Splits; Updated Ranking, Capping & Funding

With 4 days left in the review period, Fast Retailing is now in double capping zone which would require passives to sell 13.3m shares in March. If...

Brian Freitas

Japan Morning Connection: CPI to the Rescue for Risk-On Growth Style Plays

​Tech and Semi's rebounding should be positive for related JP names. Da Vinci procedures show strong numbers - what of Hinotori? JP tourist numbers...

Andrew Jackson

Seven & I Holdings (3382 JP): The MBO Is Still Alive and Kicking

Apollo’s involvement strongly signals the viability of the Ito family MBO. 7&i's underlying value supports a JPY8 trillion MBO valuation.

Arun George

[Quiddity Index Jan25] Nikkei 225 Mar Rebal: 3 IN, 3 OUT, $3bn One Way

Nikkei 225 March 2025 Rebalance could easily be three ADDs and three DELETEs this time. Last time it could have been too, but they only went for...

Travis Lundy

Quiddity Leaderboard Mar25 Nikkei 225 Rebal: 2 IN, 2 OUT, $5.5bn+ Fastie to Sell, $7bn a Side

The March 2025 Nikkei 225 rebal has <8 weeks to go before it is set. ADDs and DELETEs are mostly decided. The bigger question is the capping of...

Travis Lundy

Tech and Semi's rebounding should be positive for related JP names. Da Vinci procedures show strong numbers - what of Hinotori? JP tourist numbers...