Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Despite conservative 2023 guidance last quarter, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/japan-tobacco-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13498:1" rel="noopener">Japan Tobacco (2914 JP)</a> is primed to exceed expectations in the 3rd quarter of 2023.</li>
<li>Despite no new domestic price hikes, Japan Tobacco's volume recovery post-hikes is expected to help sustain the revenue and profit growth momentum.</li>
<li>New price increases in the Philippines and the UK, coupled with last year's hikes spillover, are expected to boost Japan Tobacco's earnings; and the yen's depreciation amplifies these gains.</li>
</ul>


Despite conservative 2023 guidance last quarter, Japan Tobacco (2914 JP) is primed to exceed expectations in the 3rd quarter of 2023.
Despite no new domestic price hikes, Japan Tobacco's volume recovery post-hikes is expected to help sustain the revenue and profit growth momentum.
New price increases in the Philippines and the UK, coupled with last year's hikes spillover, are expected to boost Japan Tobacco's earnings; and the yen's depreciation amplifies these gains.


Japan Tobacco High Conviction Call: Could Leave 2023 Guidance in the Dust

<ul>
<li>Just eight months into Russia’s Ukraine invasion, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/japan-tobacco-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13498:1" rel="noopener">Japan Tobacco (2914 JP)</a>’s share price has moved back above the pre-Ukraine invasion level suggesting that investors are over with Russia exposure fears.</li>
<li>Based on the company’s guidance upgrade trend historically and YTD financial performance, we are expecting around ¥70bn upside to 2022 OP guidance in 3Q22.</li>
<li>With earnings back on a growth trajectory, we are expecting a reversal of the 2017-21 share price to earnings trend to take Japan Tobacco shares over ¥3,500 in the short-term.</li>
</ul>


Just eight months into Russia’s Ukraine invasion, Japan Tobacco (2914 JP)’s share price has moved back above the pre-Ukraine invasion level suggesting that investors are over with Russia exposure fears.
Based on the company’s guidance upgrade trend historically and YTD financial performance, we are expecting around ¥70bn upside to 2022 OP guidance in 3Q22.
With earnings back on a growth trajectory, we are expecting a reversal of the 2017-21 share price to earnings trend to take Japan Tobacco shares over ¥3,500 in the short-term.


Japan Tobacco High Conviction Update: Guidance Has Upside Potential, The Market Is Pass Russia Fears

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>At the October rebalance, there are 970 stocks that will have a lower FFW while 114 stocks will have a higher FFW. 493 stocks will undergo a Phased Weight Reduction.</li>
<li>Estimated one-way turnover is 2.54% resulting in a one-way trade of ¥1.815tn. 500 stocks have over 4 days ADV to trade, 100 stocks have over 9 days ADV to trade.</li>
<li>Setting the threshold at +/-US$50m to trade, the stocks with inflows have outperformed the stocks with outflows by 6.5% over the last four months.</li>
</ul>


At the October rebalance, there are 970 stocks that will have a lower FFW while 114 stocks will have a higher FFW. 493 stocks will undergo a Phased Weight Reduction.
Estimated one-way turnover is 2.54% resulting in a one-way trade of ¥1.815tn. 500 stocks have over 4 days ADV to trade, 100 stocks have over 9 days ADV to trade.
Setting the threshold at +/-US$50m to trade, the stocks with inflows have outperformed the stocks with outflows by 6.5% over the last four months.


TOPIX October Rebalance: BIG One With ¥1.8tn a Side to Trade

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in margin trading positions of JPX stocks as of Jun 6th. The aggregated net margin trading position is USD17,477m.</li>
<li>We tabulate league tables for top/bottom net long/short of margin trading by value, net margin buy as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight net margin buy/sell changes in Advantest, Sbi Sumishin Net Bank, Toyota Industries, Mitsubishi Ufj Financial, Softbank, Toyota Motor, Skylark, Keyence, Nippon Yusen Kabushiki Kaisha, Mitsubishi Heavy Industries.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in margin trading positions of JPX stocks as of Jun 6th. The aggregated net margin trading position is USD17,477m.
We tabulate league tables for top/bottom net long/short of margin trading by value, net margin buy as multiple of ADT.
We highlight net margin buy/sell changes in Advantest, Sbi Sumishin Net Bank, Toyota Industries, Mitsubishi Ufj Financial, Softbank, Toyota Motor, Skylark, Keyence, Nippon Yusen Kabushiki Kaisha, Mitsubishi Heavy Industries.


JPX Margin Trading Weekly (Jun 6th): Advantest, Sbi Sumishin Net Bank, Toyota Industries

Global Healthcare Analyst

Tina Banerjee

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shionogi-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19535:1" rel="noopener">Shionogi &amp; Co (4507 JP)</a> revenue up 1% YoY in FY25 as royalty income from HIV franchise compensates for lower sales from infectious disease drugs.</li>
<li>Torii pharma and JT’s pharma division acquisition augurs well in terms of products category diversification.</li>
<li>NDA for zuranolone, a treatment in development for major depressive disorder (MDD) submitted. JTE-061 (tapinarof) and TO-208 from Torii opens up opportunities in Japan market.</li>
</ul>



Shionogi &amp; Co (4507 JP) revenue up 1% YoY in FY25 as royalty income from HIV franchise compensates for lower sales from infectious disease drugs.
Torii pharma and JT’s pharma division acquisition augurs well in terms of products category diversification.
NDA for zuranolone, a treatment in development for major depressive disorder (MDD) submitted. JTE-061 (tapinarof) and TO-208 from Torii opens up opportunities in Japan market.


Shionogi & Co (4507 JP): Change Of Gears Likely From FY26, Torii Acquisition Augurs Well

Japan

Japan Tobacco, Inc. operates as an tobacco product company. The Company manufactures, markets and sells cigarettes and other tobacco products internationally. Japan Tobacco is also engaged in pharmaceutical and food businesses.

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Japan Tobacco (2914 JP)

Japan Tobacco High Conviction Call: Could Leave 2023 Guidance in the Dust

JT has exceeded expectations, reporting a revenue of ¥764bn (consensus: ¥707.5bn) and an OP of ¥218bn (consensus: ¥178.2bn). Additionally, the...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Japan Tobacco High Conviction Update: Guidance Has Upside Potential, The Market Is Pass Russia Fears

Just eight months into Russia’s Ukraine invasion, Japan Tobacco’s share price has moved back above the pre-Ukraine invasion level suggesting that...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

TOPIX October Rebalance: BIG One With ¥1.8tn a Side to Trade

Lower FFWs on 970 stocks and higher FFWs on 114 stocks will result in one-way turnover of 2.52% leading to a one-way trade of ¥1.8tn at the close...

Brian Freitas

JPX Margin Trading Weekly (Jun 6th): Advantest, Sbi Sumishin Net Bank, Toyota Industries

We analyzed JPX margin trading positions report for the past week and highlighted Advantest (6857 JP), Sbi Sumishin Net Bank (7163 JP), Toyota...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Shionogi & Co (4507 JP): Change Of Gears Likely From FY26, Torii Acquisition Augurs Well

Shionogi sees revenue rise in FY25 as royalties offset lower infectious disease drug sales. Acquisition and new drug submissions signal product...

Tina Banerjee

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Japan Tobacco High Conviction Call: Could Leave 2023 Guidance in the Dust

JT has exceeded expectations, reporting a revenue of ¥764bn (consensus: ¥707.5bn) and an OP of ¥218bn (consensus: ¥178.2bn). Additionally, the...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Japan Tobacco High Conviction Update: Guidance Has Upside Potential, The Market Is Pass Russia Fears

Just eight months into Russia’s Ukraine invasion, Japan Tobacco’s share price has moved back above the pre-Ukraine invasion level suggesting that...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

TOPIX October Rebalance: BIG One With ¥1.8tn a Side to Trade

Lower FFWs on 970 stocks and higher FFWs on 114 stocks will result in one-way turnover of 2.52% leading to a one-way trade of ¥1.8tn at the close...

Brian Freitas

JPX Margin Trading Weekly (Jun 6th): Advantest, Sbi Sumishin Net Bank, Toyota Industries

We analyzed JPX margin trading positions report for the past week and highlighted Advantest (6857 JP), Sbi Sumishin Net Bank (7163 JP), Toyota...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Shionogi & Co (4507 JP): Change Of Gears Likely From FY26, Torii Acquisition Augurs Well

​Shionogi sees revenue rise in FY25 as royalties offset lower infectious disease drug sales. Acquisition and new drug submissions signal product...

Tina Banerjee

Shionogi sees revenue rise in FY25 as royalties offset lower infectious disease drug sales. Acquisition and new drug submissions signal product...