Asia biased macro & technical analysis, Untying The Gordian Knot

Untying The Gordian Knot

Asia biased macro & technical analysis

A differentiated process with a primary focus on Asia. Technical Analysis as core and Macro drivers that could bring the view to fruition & changes that could make the idea fall apart. The objective is to be the best in class, hence corner shop.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>It all went a bit potty in 2021-2022, and the market went from overextended lack of common sense to some mean reversion.</li><li>The need for QE and negative yields for sustaining innovation and maintaining valuation VC investments, Marked to Myth investments, are finally being called out.   </li><li>In short, Head Fakes are red herrings that divert attention from what is already happening.  </li></ul>

It all went a bit potty in 2021-2022, and the market went from overextended lack of common sense to some mean reversion.The need for QE and negative yields for sustaining innovation and maintaining valuation VC investments, Marked to Myth investments, are finally being called out.   In short, Head Fakes are red herrings that divert attention from what is already happening.  

Equity Analyst - Asia Consumer Sector, Investory

Devi Subhakesan

Equity Analyst - Asia Consumer Sector

ASIA CONSUMER: INSIGHTS AND INVESTMENT IDEAS

Investory

Investory is a Singapore-based boutique independent equity research firm founded in January 2017 with a primary focus on consumption themes across Asia-Pacific.

We aim to generate investible ideas based on consumption trends and outlook. We screen our ideas on several parameters - product potential, long-term growth and management commitment being the most critical.  We follow a fundamental analysis approach in our stock selection process and are not restricted by market cap.

We aspire to grow into a leading source of unbiased research, free of conflict of interest, for investors yearning for independent and disciplined analysis. 

We also undertake bespoke research mandates to support our Institutional clients’ investment needs.

Our team comprises of professionals with extensive experience in the Asian equity markets, in areas ranging from research, servicing institutional clients and investment management.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Despite a strong surge in sales in the Sept. quarter, most Indian consumer companies reported weak profit growth given negative impact of inflation, currency and interest rates.</li>
<li>Inflationary pressures from higher raw material costs, rise in fuel costs and higher wages have affected volume growth as companies attempted to effect price hikes to mitigate margin impact.</li>
<li>Leading FMCG companies have temporarily cut back on marketing spend during the quarter to offset the impact of cost pressures on operating margins.</li>
</ul>


Despite a strong surge in sales in the Sept. quarter, most Indian consumer companies reported weak profit growth given negative impact of inflation, currency and interest rates.
Inflationary pressures from higher raw material costs, rise in fuel costs and higher wages have affected volume growth as companies attempted to effect price hikes to mitigate margin impact.
Leading FMCG companies have temporarily cut back on marketing spend during the quarter to offset the impact of cost pressures on operating margins.


Inflation Bites: India Consumer Sector - Rising Revenues, Dipping Margins in Sept. Quarter

APAC IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Akshat Shah

APAC IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/meesho-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35872:1" rel="noopener">Meesho (MEESHO IN)</a> raised about US$600m in its Dec 2025 India IPO. The lockup on a part of stake of its promoters and pre-IPO investors is set to expire soon.</li>
<li>Meesho is an e-commerce marketplace, offering a wide assortment of products ranging from low cost unbranded products, regional and national brands at affordable prices to consumers.</li>
<li>In this note, we will talk about the lockup dynamics and possible placement.</li>
</ul>



Meesho (MEESHO IN) raised about US$600m in its Dec 2025 India IPO. The lockup on a part of stake of its promoters and pre-IPO investors is set to expire soon.
Meesho is an e-commerce marketplace, offering a wide assortment of products ranging from low cost unbranded products, regional and national brands at affordable prices to consumers.
In this note, we will talk about the lockup dynamics and possible placement.


Aequitas: Meesho Ltd IPO Lockup Expiry - US$5.7bn Lockup Release with PE Investors Well in The Money

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), HDFC Securities

HDFC Securities

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

HDFC securities is the best online trading platform for stocks, IPOs, mutual fund in India. 

Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

<ul><li>Hindustan Unilever: HUL reported higher-than-expected revenue and volume growth; however, volume growth saw sequential deceleration on three-year CAGR</li><li>Domestic revenue (ex-GSK) was up 9% on a three-year CAGR (8% in Q4), with volume CAGR seeing slight deceleration at 1.7% (6% YoY) vs ~3% CAGR in the previous three quarters</li><li>The volume growth was broad-based despite the industry declining 6% YoY</li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

Hindustan Unilever: HUL reported higher-than-expected revenue and volume growth; however, volume growth saw sequential deceleration on three-year CAGRDomestic revenue (ex-GSK) was up 9% on a three-year CAGR (8% in Q4), with volume CAGR seeing slight deceleration at 1.7% (6% YoY) vs ~3% CAGR in the previous three quartersThe volume growth was broad-based despite the industry declining 6% YoYContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

HSIE Results Daily: Hindustan Unilever, Ambuja Cement, ICICI Lombard, Heidelberg Cement

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/indo-mim-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45956:1" rel="noopener">Indo-MIM Ltd (1666551D IN)</a> is looking to raise about US$395m in its India IPO. The deal has been downsized from its earlier estimated size of US$750m.</li>
<li>IML provides end-to-end solutions for the manufacture of precision engineering components using metal injection molding technology. Its capabilities include mold designing and tooling, coupled with finishing and assembly operations.</li>
<li>In our earlier notes, we have looked at the company’s past performance. In this note, we talk about the RHP updates, peer comp and implied valuations in the price range.</li>
</ul>



Indo-MIM Ltd (1666551D IN) is looking to raise about US$395m in its India IPO. The deal has been downsized from its earlier estimated size of US$750m.
IML provides end-to-end solutions for the manufacture of precision engineering components using metal injection molding technology. Its capabilities include mold designing and tooling, coupled with finishing and assembly operations.
In our earlier notes, we have looked at the company’s past performance. In this note, we talk about the RHP updates, peer comp and implied valuations in the price range.


Aequitas: Indo-MIM IPO - RHP Updates, Peer Comp and Thoughts on Valuation

India

Hindustan Unilever Limited (HUL) is an Indian fast-moving consumer goods company that manufactures and sells a wide range of products, including foods, beverages, cleaning agents, and personal care items. It is a subsidiary of the Anglo-Dutch company Unilever, with leading brands like Surf Excel, Dove, Lifebuoy, and Lakmé. The company is headquartered in Mumbai, India, and was founded in 1933.

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Hindustan Unilever (HUVR IN)

Head Fakes

The need for QE and negative yields for sustaining innovation and maintaining valuation VC investments, Marked to Myth investments, are finally...

Untying The Gordian Knot

Inflation Bites: India Consumer Sector - Rising Revenues, Dipping Margins in Sept. Quarter

Cost pressures could continue to impact volume and margins for most India consumer stocks. Impact of Inflation, currency and interest rates are key...

Devi Subhakesan

Aequitas: Meesho Ltd IPO Lockup Expiry - US$5.7bn Lockup Release with PE Investors Well in The Money

A group of investors (Elevation Capital and Peak XV) have launched an INR19bn (US$199m) selldown at a floor price of INR182.08/share, a 5% discount...

Akshat Shah

HSIE Results Daily: Hindustan Unilever, Ambuja Cement, ICICI Lombard, Heidelberg Cement

Hindustan Unilever: HUL reported higher-than-expected revenue and volume growth; however, volume growth saw sequential deceleration on three-year CAGR

HDFC Securities

Aequitas: Indo-MIM IPO - RHP Updates, Peer Comp and Thoughts on Valuation

Indo-MIM Ltd (IML) is looking to raise about US$395m in its India IPO, downsized from its earlier estimated size of US$750m. In this note, we talk...

Akshat Shah

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