Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>In past 2 quarters <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/oversea-chinese-banking-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:114:1" rel="noopener">OCBC (OCBC SP)</a> saw its credit costs rise 150% YoY and then 250% YoY. For almost all of the preceding 8 quarters YoY growth was negative. </li>
<li>It holds 3.8% of total loans in Greater China CRE, a sector that has seen visible deterioration in some banks, like <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/standard-chartered-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:193:1" rel="noopener">Standard Chartered (STAN LN)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hsbc-holdings-plc-a723bd63-0890-486f-aaa0-3bb9ad2b95ce" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21976:1" rel="noopener">HSBC Holdings (HSBA LN)</a>. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/great-eastern-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13993:1" rel="noopener">Great Eastern Holdings (GE SP)</a> is seeing weakness in main revenue lines, with worsening policy claims. Its profit delta this year is distorted from the base effect. </li>
</ul>


In past 2 quarters OCBC (OCBC SP) saw its credit costs rise 150% YoY and then 250% YoY. For almost all of the preceding 8 quarters YoY growth was negative. 
It holds 3.8% of total loans in Greater China CRE, a sector that has seen visible deterioration in some banks, like Standard Chartered (STAN LN) and HSBC Holdings (HSBA LN). 

Great Eastern Holdings (GE SP) is seeing weakness in main revenue lines, with worsening policy claims. Its profit delta this year is distorted from the base effect. 


OCBC - 10 Nov Results | Credit Costs +150% Then +250% | ~4% Loans Greater China CRE | Insurance Risk

SGX Market Strategist, Equity & Fixed Income, Singapore Exchange Ltd (SGX)

Geoff Howie

SGX Market Strategist, Equity & Fixed Income

Asia’s leading multi-asset exchange

Singapore Exchange Ltd (SGX)

Singapore Exchange is Asia’s leading and trusted market infrastructure, facilitating the exchange of capital and ideas to create value for people, businesses and economies. As a multi-asset exchange operating equity, fixed income and derivatives markets to the highest regulatory standards, SGX is a vertically integrated business that provides listing, trading, clearing, settlement, depository and data services.

With about 40% of listed companies and over 80% of listed bonds originating outside of Singapore as well as established linkages across the region and in Europe, SGX is Asia’s most international and connected exchange. Offering a full suite of derivatives products across Asian equity indices, commodities and currencies, SGX is the world’s most liquid international market for the benchmark equity indices of China, India, Japan and ASEAN.

As Asia’s pioneering central counterparty, SGX is globally recognised for its risk management and clearing capabilities, and was one of the first globally to adopt the Principles for Financial Market Infrastructure.

Headquartered in AAA-rated Singapore, SGX has over 800 employees including offices in Beijing, Chicago, Hong Kong, London, New York, Mumbai, San Francisco, Shanghai and Tokyo.

<ul><li>Last week, the trio of DBS, UOB and OCBC averaged 3.4% gains, bringing their average 3Q23-to-date total return to 8.7%.</li><li>The 3Q23-to-date has seen the trio of DBS, UOB & OCBC report combined 2Q23 Net Interest Income (NII) of S$8.26 billion, marking the third-consecutive quarter that combined quarterly NII has been above the S$8.0 billion mark.</li><li>DBS Group Holdings (DBS), United Overseas Bank (UOB) and Oversea-Chinese Banking Corporation (OCBC) also moved in tandem averaging a 4% gain on the week.</li></ul>

Last week, the trio of DBS, UOB and OCBC averaged 3.4% gains, bringing their average 3Q23-to-date total return to 8.7%.The 3Q23-to-date has seen the trio of DBS, UOB & OCBC report combined 2Q23 Net Interest Income (NII) of S$8.26 billion, marking the third-consecutive quarter that combined quarterly NII has been above the S$8.0 billion mark.DBS Group Holdings (DBS), United Overseas Bank (UOB) and Oversea-Chinese Banking Corporation (OCBC) also moved in tandem averaging a 4% gain on the week.

Global Banks Led Stocks on the Week with Arm IPO & Growth Outlook

Great Eastern Holdings / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Share buybacks by primary listed companies 16 - 22 Jun 2023 UOB, OCBC, Keppel Corporation, ST Engineering and Singtel led the net institutional outflow for the five sessions.</li><li>On Jun 19, OCBC acquired 2,345,800 shares of Great Eastern Holdings at S$16.99 per share.</li></ul>

Share buybacks by primary listed companies 16 - 22 Jun 2023 UOB, OCBC, Keppel Corporation, ST Engineering and Singtel led the net institutional outflow for the five sessions.On Jun 19, OCBC acquired 2,345,800 shares of Great Eastern Holdings at S$16.99 per share.

Nio enters share subscription agreement with CYVN Holdings; OCBC ups Great Eastern stake

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

Thai Life Insurance  / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Thai Life Insurance is looking to raise up to US$1bn in its upcoming Thailand IPO.</li>
<li>Thai Life Insurance is one of the largest life insurance companies in Thailand, third by assets. As of Mar 2022, it had 64,000 insurance agents.</li>
<li>In this note, we will talk about valuations and undertake a peer comparison versus its international peers.</li>
</ul>


Thai Life Insurance is looking to raise up to US$1bn in its upcoming Thailand IPO.
Thai Life Insurance is one of the largest life insurance companies in Thailand, third by assets. As of Mar 2022, it had 64,000 insurance agents.
In this note, we will talk about valuations and undertake a peer comparison versus its international peers.


Thai Life Insurance Pre-IPO - Thoughts on Valuation and International Peer Comparison

Silver Point

Thomas J. Monaco

Silver Point is a boutique research firm that focuses on the broader financial services sector, with a particular focus on troubled institutions globally. 

Asia Ex Japan

<ul>
<li>OCBC reported 4Q21 net profit of SGD 973 mn, declining 20.5% linked quarter, as a result of an increase in loss provisions and higher costs; </li>
<li>Were it not for the 51.8% decline in Singapore NPLs, credit quality would have been disastrous for OCBC with credit falling off of a cliff regionally; and </li>
<li>Given the increase in net new NPLs, reserves would appear to now be wanting by SGD 2.8 bn plus or nearly three quarters of bottom-line results. </li>
</ul>


OCBC reported 4Q21 net profit of SGD 973 mn, declining 20.5% linked quarter, as a result of an increase in loss provisions and higher costs; 
Were it not for the 51.8% decline in Singapore NPLs, credit quality would have been disastrous for OCBC with credit falling off of a cliff regionally; and 
Given the increase in net new NPLs, reserves would appear to now be wanting by SGD 2.8 bn plus or nearly three quarters of bottom-line results. 


Oversea Chinese Banking Corp.- Another Weak Print

Singapore

Great Eastern Holdings Limited operates in the life insurance business. The Company provides fund management services including retirement plans and endowments as well as life and health insurance, personal accident insurance, and general insurance

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Great Eastern Holdings (GE SP)

OCBC - 10 Nov Results | Credit Costs +150% Then +250% | ~4% Loans Greater China CRE | Insurance Risk

OCBC releases results on 10 Nov. We believe the figures can underwhelm due largely to credit metrics. Insurance operations have also shown core...

Daniel Tabbush

Global Banks Led Stocks on the Week with Arm IPO & Growth Outlook

Last week, the trio of DBS, UOB and OCBC averaged 3.4% gains, bringing their average 3Q23-to-date total return to 8.7%. The 3Q23-to-date has seen...

Singapore Exchange Ltd (SGX)

Thai Life Insurance Pre-IPO - Thoughts on Valuation and International Peer Comparison

Thai Life Insurance is looking to raise up to US$1bn in its upcoming Thailand IPO. In this note, we talk about valuations.

Sumeet Singh

Oversea Chinese Banking Corp.- Another Weak Print

OCBC: OCBC reported 4Q21 net profit decline of 20.5% QOQ due to increases in loss provisions and costs. Were it not for the improvement in...

Thomas J. Monaco

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

OCBC - 10 Nov Results | Credit Costs +150% Then +250% | ~4% Loans Greater China CRE | Insurance Risk

OCBC releases results on 10 Nov. We believe the figures can underwhelm due largely to credit metrics. Insurance operations have also shown core...

Daniel Tabbush

Global Banks Led Stocks on the Week with Arm IPO & Growth Outlook

Last week, the trio of DBS, UOB and OCBC averaged 3.4% gains, bringing their average 3Q23-to-date total return to 8.7%. The 3Q23-to-date has seen...

Singapore Exchange Ltd (SGX)

Nio enters share subscription agreement with CYVN Holdings; OCBC ups Great Eastern stake

Share buybacks by primary listed companies 16 - 22 Jun 2023 UOB, OCBC, Keppel Corporation, ST Engineering and Singtel led the net institutional...

Singapore Exchange Ltd (SGX)

Thai Life Insurance Pre-IPO - Thoughts on Valuation and International Peer Comparison

Thai Life Insurance is looking to raise up to US$1bn in its upcoming Thailand IPO. In this note, we talk about valuations.

Sumeet Singh

Oversea Chinese Banking Corp.- Another Weak Print

OCBC: OCBC reported 4Q21 net profit decline of 20.5% QOQ due to increases in loss provisions and costs. Were it not for the improvement in...

Thomas J. Monaco