HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Equity Capital Markets

Jiangsu Hengrui Medicine / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Hengrui plans to IPO in Hong Kong, but it hasn't yet completed the business transformation from generic drugs to innovative drugs, and is still facing the negative impact of VBP.</li>
<li>The key point is whether the innovative drug business has sustained high enough growth rate to offset the decline in generic drug business so as to support the high valuation.</li>
<li>Hengrui is overvalued in A-Share. We think Hengrui’s valuation should be lower than that of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/beigene-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27352:1" rel="noopener">BeiGene (6160 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hansoh-pharmaceutical-group-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23675:1" rel="noopener">Hansoh Pharmaceutical Group (3692 HK)</a> in Hong Kong stock market.</li>
</ul>


Hengrui plans to IPO in Hong Kong, but it hasn't yet completed the business transformation from generic drugs to innovative drugs, and is still facing the negative impact of VBP.
The key point is whether the innovative drug business has sustained high enough growth rate to offset the decline in generic drug business so as to support the high valuation.
Hengrui is overvalued in A-Share. We think Hengrui’s valuation should be lower than that of BeiGene (6160 HK) and Hansoh Pharmaceutical Group (3692 HK) in Hong Kong stock market.


Pre-IPO Jiangsu Hengrui Medicine - High Valuation Cannot Be Justified

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jiangsu-hengrui-medicine-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14128:1" rel="noopener">Jiangsu Hengrui Medicine (600276 CH)</a> has filed for a listing on the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-exchanges-clearing" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:490:1" rel="noopener">HKEX (388 HK)</a> and reports indicate that the raise will be at least US$2bn.</li>
<li>In line with the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/midea-group-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:43993:1" rel="noopener">Midea Group (300 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-f-holding" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:44093:1" rel="noopener">S.F. Holding (6936 HK)</a> H-share listings, the discount on the H-shares could be in the 20-25% range.</li>
<li>There will be no Fast Entry in any indices but there will be index inclusions in multiple indices if the raise is larger or once the cornerstone investor lock-up ends.</li>
</ul>



Jiangsu Hengrui Medicine (600276 CH) has filed for a listing on the HKEX (388 HK) and reports indicate that the raise will be at least US$2bn.
In line with the Midea Group (300 HK) and S.F. Holding (6936 HK) H-share listings, the discount on the H-shares could be in the 20-25% range.
There will be no Fast Entry in any indices but there will be index inclusions in multiple indices if the raise is larger or once the cornerstone investor lock-up ends.


Jiangsu Hengrui Pharma (600276 CH): Index Inclusion Post H-Share Listing

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning, Copley Fund Research

Steven Holden

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning

Copley Fund Research

Copley Fund Research provide research and data on asset allocation among Global and Emerging Market equity funds.  The analysis details absolute and relative positioning across countries, sectors and industries together with highly granular data on single stock and single fund allocations.  The data is updated monthly with time series going back to January 2011.

Global Research - Analysis of 165 prominent Global equity funds, combined AUM $335bn
GEM Research - Analysis of 127 prominent global EM equity funds, combined AUM $250bn

Asset Allocation - Global and GEM Equity

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Industrials and Consumer Staples Remain Top Overweights, Though Sentiment Fragile for Both.</li>
<li>Energy sector shows signs of a turnaround from long-term decline, whilst Financials remain unloved by China investors.</li>
<li>Real Estate allocations have hit record lows, with average holdings at just 2.93%, while Consumer Discretionary sector approaches all-time highs.</li>
</ul>


Industrials and Consumer Staples Remain Top Overweights, Though Sentiment Fragile for Both.
Energy sector shows signs of a turnaround from long-term decline, whilst Financials remain unloved by China investors.
Real Estate allocations have hit record lows, with average holdings at just 2.93%, while Consumer Discretionary sector approaches all-time highs.


Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Due to the popularity of GLP-1 target, the entire GLP-1 upstream and downstream industry chain has received great enthusiasm. We analyzed related investment opportunities but also concerns in this market.  </li>
<li>Domestic CXOs should focus on securing orders for overseas weight loss drugs. The market value increment brought by weight loss drugs to CXO should be higher than that of APIs.</li>
<li>Due to increasing competition/potential price war, how big the real market space is uncertain. So, the market value increment of weight loss drugs business for pharmaceutical companies could be lower-than-expected.</li>
</ul>


Due to the popularity of GLP-1 target, the entire GLP-1 upstream and downstream industry chain has received great enthusiasm. We analyzed related investment opportunities but also concerns in this market.  
Domestic CXOs should focus on securing orders for overseas weight loss drugs. The market value increment brought by weight loss drugs to CXO should be higher than that of APIs.
Due to increasing competition/potential price war, how big the real market space is uncertain. So, the market value increment of weight loss drugs business for pharmaceutical companies could be lower-than-expected.


China's Weight Loss Drug Market – The Investment Opportunities and the Risks Behind

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Suzhou Novosense Microelectron / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/suzhou-novosense-microelectron" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36368:1" rel="noopener">Suzhou Novosense Microelectron (688052 CH)</a>, an analog chips producer, raised around US$285m in its H-share listing.</li>
<li>According to Frost &amp; Sullivan, in terms of revenue from analog chips in 2024, SNM ranked fifth among Chinese analog chip companies in the Chinese analog chip market</li>
<li>We have covered various aspects of the deal in our previous note. In this note, we will talk about the demand and trading dynamics.</li>
</ul>



Suzhou Novosense Microelectron (688052 CH), an analog chips producer, raised around US$285m in its H-share listing.
According to Frost &amp; Sullivan, in terms of revenue from analog chips in 2024, SNM ranked fifth among Chinese analog chip companies in the Chinese analog chip market
We have covered various aspects of the deal in our previous note. In this note, we will talk about the demand and trading dynamics.


Suzhou Novosense A/H Trading - Weakest Demand but Highest Concentration

China

Jiangsu Hengrui Medicine Co., Ltd. develops, manufactures, and markets a variety of medicines and medicine packing materials. The Company's products include anti-tumor medicines, pain-killers, anti-infection medicines, aluminum foil, and other related products.

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Jiangsu Hengrui Medicine (600276 CH)

Pre-IPO Jiangsu Hengrui Medicine - High Valuation Cannot Be Justified

Hengrui plans to IPO in HK but face challenges in business transformation, with doubts on sustaining growth to support high valuation compared to...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

China Macro: Sector Positioning Update

Sector positioning among active China Funds. Industrials and Consumer Staples Remain Top Overweights, Energy shows signs of a turnaround, whilst...

Steven Holden

China's Weight Loss Drug Market – The Investment Opportunities and the Risks Behind

The GLP-1 target has been recognized as a blockbuster target, which has attracted great enthusiasm from investors.We analyzed related investment...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Suzhou Novosense A/H Trading - Weakest Demand but Highest Concentration

Suzhou Novosense Microelectron (688052 CH), an analog chips producer, raised around US$285m in its H-share listing. In this note, we talk about the...

Sumeet Singh

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Pre-IPO Jiangsu Hengrui Medicine - High Valuation Cannot Be Justified

​Hengrui plans to IPO in HK but face challenges in business transformation, with doubts on sustaining growth to support high valuation compared to...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Jiangsu Hengrui Pharma (600276 CH): Index Inclusion Post H-Share Listing

Jiangsu Hengrui has filed an application proof for an HKEX listing. Reports indicate a US$2bn raise. There will be no index Fast Entry but...

Brian Freitas

China Macro: Sector Positioning Update

Sector positioning among active China Funds. Industrials and Consumer Staples Remain Top Overweights, Energy shows signs of a turnaround, whilst...

Steven Holden

China's Weight Loss Drug Market – The Investment Opportunities and the Risks Behind

The GLP-1 target has been recognized as a blockbuster target, which has attracted great enthusiasm from investors.We analyzed related investment...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Suzhou Novosense A/H Trading - Weakest Demand but Highest Concentration

Suzhou Novosense Microelectron (688052 CH), an analog chips producer, raised around US$285m in its H-share listing. In this note, we talk about the...

Sumeet Singh

Hengrui plans to IPO in HK but face challenges in business transformation, with doubts on sustaining growth to support high valuation compared to...