Japanese Equity Specialist, Ortus Advisors

Andrew Jackson

Japanese Equity Specialist

Ortus Advisors

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>SMCI -33% after federal prosecutors accused officials of smuggling Nvidia chips into China. Bad for Nidec Corp (6594 JP) who makes server cooling modules for SMCI.</li>
<li>Chiyoda looks interesting on Qatar LNG reconstruction given its direct tie-up with Technip once conflict stabilises.</li>
<li>Sumi Forestry looking increasingly ill-timed on its Tri Pointe acquisition as US homebuilder rates hit highest since mid-2026.</li>
</ul>


SMCI -33% after federal prosecutors accused officials of smuggling Nvidia chips into China. Bad for Nidec Corp (6594 JP) who makes server cooling modules for SMCI.
Chiyoda looks interesting on Qatar LNG reconstruction given its direct tie-up with Technip once conflict stabilises.
Sumi Forestry looking increasingly ill-timed on its Tri Pointe acquisition as US homebuilder rates hit highest since mid-2026.


Japan Morning Connection: SMCI's Chip Smuggling Scandal Drags Server and Memory Down

<ul>
<li>News that chipmakers plan to relax the standard that determines the thickness of next-gen 20-layer HBM4 memory chips sent hybrid-bonding play BESI -17%.</li>
<li>This sent Teradyne -10.6%, Lam Research -7.2%, and AMAT -6.3%, and while the impact is more nuanced in Japan it will be indiscriminate risk-off across SPE to start.</li>
<li>Software bounced so this may see a defense bid, and I would be looking to be long JP utilities with nuclear restarts vs those still dependent on oil/gas fired plants.</li>
</ul>


News that chipmakers plan to relax the standard that determines the thickness of next-gen 20-layer HBM4 memory chips sent hybrid-bonding play BESI -17%.
This sent Teradyne -10.6%, Lam Research -7.2%, and AMAT -6.3%, and while the impact is more nuanced in Japan it will be indiscriminate risk-off across SPE to start.
Software bounced so this may see a defense bid, and I would be looking to be long JP utilities with nuclear restarts vs those still dependent on oil/gas fired plants.


Japan Morning Connection: Brent Surges as Mojtaba Khamenei Is Voted in as Iran's Next Supreme Leader

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Beginning December 2024, a consortium comprising CPP, ADIA, Sumant Sinha, and Masdar, thrice bid for <strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/renew-energy-global-plc-class-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:37038:1" rel="noopener">ReNew Energy Global (RNW US)</a></strong>, before mysteriously walking away in December 2025.</li>
<li>On the 29th May, CPP and Sumant Sinha, collectively holding ~50%, returned with a US$6.75/share NBIO, then bumping to US$7.02/share. The prior consortium had bid up to US$8.15/share.</li>
<li>Terms appeared underwhelming. (Not?) Surprisingly Renew Energy opted to enter into a "definitive transaction agreement". Form 6-K has been issued. The IFA says fair. No EGM date currently tabled.</li>
</ul>


Beginning December 2024, a consortium comprising CPP, ADIA, Sumant Sinha, and Masdar, thrice bid for ReNew Energy Global (RNW US), before mysteriously walking away in December 2025.
On the 29th May, CPP and Sumant Sinha, collectively holding ~50%, returned with a US$6.75/share NBIO, then bumping to US$7.02/share. The prior consortium had bid up to US$8.15/share.
Terms appeared underwhelming. (Not?) Surprisingly Renew Energy opted to enter into a "definitive transaction agreement". Form 6-K has been issued. The IFA says fair. No EGM date currently tabled.


ReNew Energy (RNW US): Tight Spread As IFA, Key Shareholders, And SC Support Terms

<ul>
<li>No BOJ hike means bonds, banks, yen and insurance down, while defense and nuclear will do well.</li>
<li>She is seen as a China-hawk so watch for weakness in China related plays.</li>
<li>Overall expect a big leg higher for markets including in yen sensitive SPE and AI related.</li>
</ul>


No BOJ hike means bonds, banks, yen and insurance down, while defense and nuclear will do well.
She is seen as a China-hawk so watch for weakness in China related plays.
Overall expect a big leg higher for markets including in yen sensitive SPE and AI related.


Japan Morning Connection: Sakae Takaichi Win Pulls Japan to the Right

Japanese Turnaround Situations, Short-Ideas, Azabu Research

Michael Allen

Japanese Turnaround Situations, Short-Ideas

Azabu Research

Azabu Research is a publishing and consulting firm focused on distressed equities in the Japanese market. We specialize in turnaround strategies, corporate combinations, divestitures, and restructuring.

Publisher of the Tokyo Turnaround Letter, which conducts the most thorough research possible of publicly available information, including forensic tests for fraudulent overstatement of assets and understatement of liabilities, as well as rigorous market and industry analysis to assess the underlying strengths of the company’s products or services, the appropriateness of the company’s turnaround strategy, and the skill of its current management team. The average length of a report exceeds 25 pages of text and tables, excluding any disclosures or executive summaries.

We have more than 30 years of experience in applying this process to distressed equities in Japan. Additionally, subscribers have free access to detailed, yet easily navigated earnings models for the target company as well as the top five comparable companies, and unlimited access to the analyst for follow-up questions.

Azabu Research also conducts be-spoke research on a project basis, and provides consulting services to companies looking to restructure, divest, make acquisitions, go public, or improve investor sentiment toward their stock.

Independent Research and Consulting Firm

<ul>
<li>Buying the worst-performing stocks of the previous 12 months has outperformed Japan’s Topix index by an average of 7% annually for 9 straight years</li>
<li>For most of 2024, the strategy didn’t work, but an uptick in TOBs, MBOs, and merger talks is suddenly making it unsafe to short low-PBR companies indiscriminately.</li>
<li>Suddenly, dozens of previously complacent companies have the fear of God and are taking action to up their profitability and the market is taking notice. </li>
</ul>


Buying the worst-performing stocks of the previous 12 months has outperformed Japan’s Topix index by an average of 7% annually for 9 straight years
For most of 2024, the strategy didn’t work, but an uptick in TOBs, MBOs, and merger talks is suddenly making it unsafe to short low-PBR companies indiscriminately.
Suddenly, dozens of previously complacent companies have the fear of God and are taking action to up their profitability and the market is taking notice. 


2024 Was Ugly for Turnarounds, 2025 Should Be Awesome!

Japan

Chubu Electric Power Company, Incorporated generates, transmits, distributes, and sells electricity in Chubu area.  The Company's service area includes Aichi, Gifu, Mie, Nagano, and part of Shizuoka Prefecture.

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Chubu Electric Power Co (9502 JP)

Japan Morning Connection: SMCI's Chip Smuggling Scandal Drags Server and Memory Down

SMCI Nvidia chip smuggling charges hit server and memory names. Japan's SPE names likely muted at open after missing Thursday's US rebound during...

Andrew Jackson

Japan Morning Connection: Brent Surges as Mojtaba Khamenei Is Voted in as Iran's Next Supreme Leader

Brent surges as high as $111 this morning as hardliner Mojtaba Khamenei in voted in as Iran's next supreme leader. After the dust settles SPE will...

Andrew Jackson

ReNew Energy (RNW US): Tight Spread As IFA, Key Shareholders, And SC Support Terms

The Special Committee and the IFA are supportive. Shareholders with 51% (incl. Jera) of the Scheme vote are also supportive. The risk is the timing...

David Blennerhassett

Japan Morning Connection: Sakae Takaichi Win Pulls Japan to the Right

Takaichi's right wing political views support a more aggressive millitary, making the heavies likely early buys. Expect utilities to do well,...

Andrew Jackson

2024 Was Ugly for Turnarounds, 2025 Should Be Awesome!

2025 could be a banner year for turnarounds and value stocks as a spate of recent TOBs, MBOs and merger discussions have suddenly made it unsafe to...

Michael Allen

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