'Quantamental' Japan Specialist, LightStream Research

Campbell Gunn

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<p style="text-align: center;"><strong>• FORWARD NET INCOME &lt;¥20 TRILLION •</strong></p><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/168/639/original/2020-11-01_11-41-42.png?1604198522" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="168639"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source for all charts &amp; tables: Japan Analytics</div></section><p><strong>&lt;¥20T</strong> - Aggregate earnings for Japan's listed companies are in their eighth successive quarter of decline. Forecast net income for the year ended December-to-March is now below ¥20 trillion and 60% lower than the 2019 peak of ¥48.5 trillion.  Despite the recent correction, the forward market multiple is at a new post-GFC high. On a more optimistic note, for many larger capitalisation companies, there has been a quarter-on-quarter improvement in sales and operating income although the year-on-year changes are still negative. As a result, our momentum-based Results Score and Forecast/Revision Score have both turned upwards.</p><section class="figure"><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/168/640/original/2020-11-01_13-06-28.png?1604203602" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="168640"></figure></section><p><strong>CAVEATS</strong> - Curbing any enthusiasm embedded in the previous sentence, would however note:-</p>
<ul>
<li>The upturn in momentum is concentrated mainly in large-cap companies which are over-represented in our data series due to cap-weighting. Significant cost-cutting has helped improve margins but has also reduced the revenues of smaller companies further down the supply chain. This divergence will be covered in an upcoming Insight.</li>
<li>The resurgence of COVID-19 and the daily new peaks in confirmed cases has not yet spread to Japan. However, with much of Europe re-entering 'lockdown', we expect the current quarter will not repeat the upturn seen in the second, and therefore, many companies will not meet their full-year targets many of which were recently revised up.</li>
<li>As a result of central bank liquidity creation, much of the recovery in earning that will occur over the next several years has already been discounted in share prices. Although the policy prescriptions that we noted in<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/japan-in-the-suga-era-policy-priorities-suga-stocks" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:43773" rel="noopener"> Japan in the Suga Era</a> will benefit many areas of the economy, Japan remains overweighted in industries that face significant disruption and disintermediation.</li>
</ul>
<section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/168/670/original/2020-11-01_14-52-47.png?1604209987" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="168670"></figure></section><section class="figure"></section><p><strong>BoJ</strong> -  Although the amounts are 30% smaller, this week was the first time since the second week of May that the Bank of Japan has purchased ETFs three days in a row. Despite growing <a href="http://www.asahi.com/ajw/articles/13863217" target="_blank" rel="noopener">attention</a> being paid to the scale and breadth of public sector ownership of Japanese equities, BoJ Governor Kuroda has PM Suga's support for continued interventions. We expect the cumulative total purchases to reach 6% of Total Market Value before the end of the fiscal year. </p></section><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/168/672/original/2020-11-01_15-05-07.png?1604210720" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="168672"></figure></section><hr><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>• MARKET TECHNICALS •</strong></p><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/168/678/original/2020-11-01_15-15-20.png?1604211336" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="168678"></figure></section><p><strong>14-DAY RSI</strong> - The Relative Strength Index is close to a new eight-month low but is yet to reach the 'buying-zone' of less than 25.</p><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/168/681/original/2020-11-01_15-58-15.png?1604213912" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="168681"></figure></section><p><strong>25-DAY TORAKU</strong> - This advance/decline indicator is suggesting that a selling climax is likely to occur this month. Panic lows are at levels below 70 - the COVID-19 low of 45 was the lowest level in over twenty years.</p><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/168/682/original/2020-11-01_16-09-21.png?1604214610" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="168682"></figure></section><p><strong>HIGH-LOW %</strong> - Having only just turned negative, this ratio is a long way from the 10-15% level needed to form a buy signal.</p><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/168/683/original/2020-11-01_16-12-30.png?1604214765" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="168683"></figure></section><p><strong>MCCLELLAN SUMMATION</strong> - Similarly, the McClellan A/D Summation is neutral and well above the -4,000 buying zone.</p><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/168/684/original/2020-11-01_16-15-15.png?1604214933" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="168684"></figure></section><p><a href="https://www.dropbox.com/s/kwe54zk9yrxmtan/2020-11-01_16-15-15.png?dl=0" target="_blank" rel="noopener">MOVING AVERAGES</a> -  Lastly, the Total Market Value is approaching the support level of the 200-Day moving average. If breached, a 50-Day/200-Day negative crossover is likely, extending this correction to below ¥600 trillion.</p><hr><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>• SECTOR RESULTS &amp; REVISION SCORES TIMELINE •</strong></p><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/168/686/original/2020-11-01_16-26-10.png?1604215582" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="168686"></figure></section><section class="figure"></section><p><strong>TIMELINE</strong> - The results 'season' is now in full 'swing'. To date, the Sectors with the strongest earnings momentum are <strong>Machinery</strong>, <strong>Retail</strong>,<strong> Electrical Equipmen</strong>t, and <strong>Other Materials</strong>. The weakest are <strong>Other Commerical Products</strong>,<strong> Information Technology</strong>, <strong>Real Estate</strong>, and <strong>Energy</strong>. Only four Sectors have a positive Score, lead by<strong> Internet Content &amp; Services</strong>. </p><hr><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>• BEST &amp; WORST •</strong></p><div><p>Our best and worst pairings from Friday's announcements are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/m3-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13316:1" rel="noopener">M3 Inc (2413 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lasertec-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4126:1" rel="noopener">Lasertec (6920 JP)</a> for the best and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pola-orbis-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2287:1" rel="noopener">Pola Orbis (4927 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mitsui-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20799:1" rel="noopener">Mitsui (8031 JP)</a> for the worst. </p></div><section class="figure"><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/168/688/original/2020-11-01_16-47-56.png?1604216889" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="168688"></figure></section><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/168/689/original/2020-11-01_16-53-04.png?1604217196" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="168689"></figure></section><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/168/690/original/2020-11-01_16-58-22.png?1604217564" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="168690"></figure></section><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/168/691/original/2020-11-01_16-59-54.png?1604217609" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="168691"></figure></section><div>
<hr>
<p style="text-align: center;"><strong>DAILY STATS</strong></p>
<p style="text-align: left;">Results are evenly split between positive and neutral, however, TTM revenues are still falling by 5% and operating margins are on average 1.5 points lower. 60% of annual revisions are negative and the average change in score is a decline of 4 points.</p>
</div>
<hr>
<div><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>407 Quarterly Results</strong></p></div>
<div><ul style="list-style-type: disc;">
<li><p><strong>Results Score:</strong> 42% Positive / 6% Neutral / 42% Negative</p></li>
<li><p><strong>Average Results Score Change:</strong> -1.2 points</p></li>
<li><p><strong>Average % Change in Revenue:</strong> -7.9% Quarter YoY / -5.2% Rolling TTM YoY </p></li>
<li><p><strong>Average Operating Profit Margin Change</strong>: -1.5ppt</p></li>
<li><p><strong>Percentage Making Quarterly Losses:</strong> 20%</p></li>
</ul></div>
<hr>
<div><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>197 Annual • 45 Interim Forecasts/Revisions</strong></p></div>
<div><ul style="list-style-type: disc;">
<li><p><strong>Annual Forecast/Revision Score:</strong> 31% Positive / 9% Neutral / 59% Negative</p></li>
<li><p><strong>Interim Forecast/Revision Score Change:</strong> 47% Positive / 11% Neutral / 42% Negative</p></li>
<li><p><strong>Average Forecast/Revision Score Change:</strong> -4.0 points</p></li>
</ul></div></section>

• FORWARD NET INCOME &lt;¥20 TRILLION •Source for all charts &amp; tables: Japan Analytics&lt;¥20T - Aggregate earnings for Japan's listed companies are in their eighth successive quarter of decline. Forecast net income for the year ended December-to-March is now below ¥20 trillion and 60% lower than the 2019 peak of ¥48.5 trillion.  Despite the recent correction, the forward market multiple is at a new post-GFC high. On a more optimistic note, for many larger capitalisation companies, there has been a quarter-on-quarter improvement in sales and operating income although the year-on-year changes are still negative. As a result, our momentum-based Results Score and Forecast/Revision Score have both turned upwards.CAVEATS - Curbing any enthusiasm embedded in the previous sentence, would however note:-

The upturn in momentum is concentrated mainly in large-cap companies which are over-represented in our data series due to cap-weighting. Significant cost-cutting has helped improve margins but has also reduced the revenues of smaller companies further down the supply chain. This divergence will be covered in an upcoming Insight.
The resurgence of COVID-19 and the daily new peaks in confirmed cases has not yet spread to Japan. However, with much of Europe re-entering 'lockdown', we expect the current quarter will not repeat the upturn seen in the second, and therefore, many companies will not meet their full-year targets many of which were recently revised up.
As a result of central bank liquidity creation, much of the recovery in earning that will occur over the next several years has already been discounted in share prices. Although the policy prescriptions that we noted in Japan in the Suga Era will benefit many areas of the economy, Japan remains overweighted in industries that face significant disruption and disintermediation.

BoJ -  Although the amounts are 30% smaller, this week was the first time since the second week of May that the Bank of Japan has purchased ETFs three days in a row. Despite growing attention being paid to the scale and breadth of public sector ownership of Japanese equities, BoJ Governor Kuroda has PM Suga's support for continued interventions. We expect the cumulative total purchases to reach 6% of Total Market Value before the end of the fiscal year. • MARKET TECHNICALS •14-DAY RSI - The Relative Strength Index is close to a new eight-month low but is yet to reach the 'buying-zone' of less than 25.25-DAY TORAKU - This advance/decline indicator is suggesting that a selling climax is likely to occur this month. Panic lows are at levels below 70 - the COVID-19 low of 45 was the lowest level in over twenty years.HIGH-LOW % - Having only just turned negative, this ratio is a long way from the 10-15% level needed to form a buy signal.MCCLELLAN SUMMATION - Similarly, the McClellan A/D Summation is neutral and well above the -4,000 buying zone.MOVING AVERAGES -  Lastly, the Total Market Value is approaching the support level of the 200-Day moving average. If breached, a 50-Day/200-Day negative crossover is likely, extending this correction to below ¥600 trillion.• SECTOR RESULTS &amp; REVISION SCORES TIMELINE •TIMELINE - The results 'season' is now in full 'swing'. To date, the Sectors with the strongest earnings momentum are Machinery, Retail, Electrical Equipment, and Other Materials. The weakest are Other Commerical Products, Information Technology, Real Estate, and Energy. Only four Sectors have a positive Score, lead by Internet Content &amp; Services. • BEST &amp; WORST •Our best and worst pairings from Friday's announcements are M3 Inc (2413 JP) and Lasertec (6920 JP) for the best and Pola Orbis (4927 JP) and Mitsui (8031 JP) for the worst. 

DAILY STATS
Results are evenly split between positive and neutral, however, TTM revenues are still falling by 5% and operating margins are on average 1.5 points lower. 60% of annual revisions are negative and the average change in score is a decline of 4 points.


407 Quarterly Results

Results Score: 42% Positive / 6% Neutral / 42% Negative
Average Results Score Change: -1.2 points
Average % Change in Revenue: -7.9% Quarter YoY / -5.2% Rolling TTM YoY 
Average Operating Profit Margin Change: -1.5ppt
Percentage Making Quarterly Losses: 20%


197 Annual • 45 Interim Forecasts/Revisions

Annual Forecast/Revision Score: 31% Positive / 9% Neutral / 59% Negative
Interim Forecast/Revision Score Change: 47% Positive / 11% Neutral / 42% Negative
Average Forecast/Revision Score Change: -4.0 points


🇯🇵 JAPAN • Market Update & Results & Revisions 10/​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​30

<p><strong>FROM FREE CASH FLOW TO CHANGE IN CASH</strong> - In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/japan-stress-tests-part-2-operating-cash-flow-accruals" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:40321" rel="noopener">Parts 2 </a>and<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/japan-stress-tests-part-3-inventory-fixed-asset-free-cash-flows" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:40544" rel="noopener"> 3</a> of this series, we covered Operating Cash Flow, Fixed Asset Cash Flow and Inventory Cash Flow, which sum to<strong> Free Cash Flow</strong>. Between<strong> Free Cash Flow</strong> and the bottom line of our reformulated Cash Flow Statement - <strong>Change in Cash</strong> - are <strong>Financing Cash Flows</strong>,<strong> Shareholder Cash Flows</strong> and cash flows related to minorities and adjustments. In the <strong>DETAIL</strong> below, we shall focus on the first of these flows<strong> </strong>for our universe of large-cap companies and summarise by looking at outliers in terms of <strong>Change in Cash</strong>. Firstly, and to recap, let us reconcile the operating side of the income and cash flow statements with the balance sheet.</p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/141/836/original/2020-06-24_07-28-23.png?1592951321" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="141836"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/141/837/original/2020-06-24_07-47-54.png?1592952495" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="141837"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source: Japan Analytics</div><div class="content-caption"></div><p><strong>OPERATING RECONCILIATION</strong> - In a clean-surplus reconciliation of operating activities, Free Cash Flow is also the sum of <strong>Net Operating Income After Tax (NOPAT)</strong> and the <strong>Change in Net Operating Assets</strong>. For the aggregate the 3,639 listed non-financial companies (excluding the quasi-financials Z Holdings, Rakuten, Japan Post, Sony and Softbank Group), NOPAT was -¥2.65 trillion in the past quarter, the worst quarterly result since 2009. As noted in Part 3, an ¥11 trillion (or 11.1% annualised) reduction in Net Operating Assets resulted in a realised Free Cash Flow of <strong>¥8.4 trillion</strong> for the quarter. Over the last seven years, Japanese non-financial companies have re-invested only 40% of NOPAT in incremental Net Operating Assets. One of the key drivers of Japan's excess cash has been a reluctance to invest. </p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/141/727/original/2020-06-23_15-25-53.png?1592893570" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="141727"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source: Japan Analytics</div><p><strong>FINANCING CASH FLOW</strong> - With above-average Free Cash Flow, the aggregate funding requirement was limited. Financing Cash Flow comprises <strong>Debt &amp; Lease Cash Flow</strong> and<strong> Financial Investment Cash Flow</strong> and often 'move' in opposite directions. For the most recent quarter, debt repayments totalled ¥1.9 trillion, while ¥2.6 trillion was divested from Financial Investments, resulting in a net Financing Cash Flow of ¥0.7 trillion.</p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/141/855/original/2020-06-24_10-08-29.png?1592960926" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="141855"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source: Japan Analytics</div><p><strong>SHAREHOLDER CASH FLOW</strong> - The fourth fiscal quarter has lower dividend payments; however, a record ¥2 trillion in buybacks was conducted. Overall, in aggregate in last three reported months, shareholders in our non-financial universe received ¥3.2 trillion. The twelve-month total is also a record ¥16.8 trillion - a yield of 3.2%. A reluctance to invest has become a boon for shareholders and has provided additional and welcome support for the market.</p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/141/888/original/2020-06-24_10-17-44.png?1592961481" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="141888"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/141/893/original/2020-06-24_10-37-39.png?1592962675" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="141893"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source: Japan Analytics</div><p><strong>CHANGE IN CASH</strong> - The 'bottom-line' of the cash flow statement - Change in Cash - peaks in the fiscal fourth quarter and 2020-Q4 saw an increase of ¥5.2 trillion, the most significant quarterly increase since 2016-Q4. Since 2014, two-thirds of Free Cash Flow has been paid out by way of dividend or share repurchases, leaving an incremental ¥38 trillion in cash.</p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/141/894/original/2020-06-24_10-46-21.png?1592963209" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="141894"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/141/895/original/2020-06-24_10-47-07.png?1592963254" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="141895"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source: Japan Analytics</div><p><strong>FINANCING RECONCILIATION</strong> - The clean-surplus reconciliation of financial activities nets off Free Cash Flow, Shareholder Cash Flow, Net Non-Operating Income/Expenses After Tax (NONOPAT), and Minorites and Adjustments to sum to the <strong>Change in Net Financial Assets</strong>. FY2020-Q4's ¥8.4 trillion Free Cash Flow surplus was more than absorbed by Shareholder Cash Flow, Minorities and a hefty ¥5.4 trillion in Non-Operating Expenses, mostly driven by the Valuation Differences and Currency Translation items in Other Comprehensive Income. The 'downside' of excessive cash levels is the temptation to invest in market-related instruments whose volatility is now directly reflected in Shareholders' Equity. </p><div class="content-highlight">
<p>In the <strong>DETAIL</strong> below, we shall examine the 'top' or 'bottom' thirty large-cap non-financial companies by the following metrics, all scaled by current market capitalisation and make some company-specific comments and recommendations:-</p>
<p style="text-align: center;"><strong>Financing Cash Flow</strong></p>
<p style="text-align: center;"><strong>Change in Cash</strong></p>
<p style="text-align: center;"><strong>Change in Net Financial Assets</strong></p>
<p style="text-align: center;"></p>
</div>

FROM FREE CASH FLOW TO CHANGE IN CASH - In Parts 2 and 3 of this series, we covered Operating Cash Flow, Fixed Asset Cash Flow and Inventory Cash Flow, which sum to Free Cash Flow. Between Free Cash Flow and the bottom line of our reformulated Cash Flow Statement - Change in Cash - are Financing Cash Flows, Shareholder Cash Flows and cash flows related to minorities and adjustments. In the DETAIL below, we shall focus on the first of these flows for our universe of large-cap companies and summarise by looking at outliers in terms of Change in Cash. Firstly, and to recap, let us reconcile the operating side of the income and cash flow statements with the balance sheet.Source: Japan AnalyticsOPERATING RECONCILIATION - In a clean-surplus reconciliation of operating activities, Free Cash Flow is also the sum of Net Operating Income After Tax (NOPAT) and the Change in Net Operating Assets. For the aggregate the 3,639 listed non-financial companies (excluding the quasi-financials Z Holdings, Rakuten, Japan Post, Sony and Softbank Group), NOPAT was -¥2.65 trillion in the past quarter, the worst quarterly result since 2009. As noted in Part 3, an ¥11 trillion (or 11.1% annualised) reduction in Net Operating Assets resulted in a realised Free Cash Flow of ¥8.4 trillion for the quarter. Over the last seven years, Japanese non-financial companies have re-invested only 40% of NOPAT in incremental Net Operating Assets. One of the key drivers of Japan's excess cash has been a reluctance to invest. Source: Japan AnalyticsFINANCING CASH FLOW - With above-average Free Cash Flow, the aggregate funding requirement was limited. Financing Cash Flow comprises Debt &amp; Lease Cash Flow and Financial Investment Cash Flow and often 'move' in opposite directions. For the most recent quarter, debt repayments totalled ¥1.9 trillion, while ¥2.6 trillion was divested from Financial Investments, resulting in a net Financing Cash Flow of ¥0.7 trillion.Source: Japan AnalyticsSHAREHOLDER CASH FLOW - The fourth fiscal quarter has lower dividend payments; however, a record ¥2 trillion in buybacks was conducted. Overall, in aggregate in last three reported months, shareholders in our non-financial universe received ¥3.2 trillion. The twelve-month total is also a record ¥16.8 trillion - a yield of 3.2%. A reluctance to invest has become a boon for shareholders and has provided additional and welcome support for the market.Source: Japan AnalyticsCHANGE IN CASH - The 'bottom-line' of the cash flow statement - Change in Cash - peaks in the fiscal fourth quarter and 2020-Q4 saw an increase of ¥5.2 trillion, the most significant quarterly increase since 2016-Q4. Since 2014, two-thirds of Free Cash Flow has been paid out by way of dividend or share repurchases, leaving an incremental ¥38 trillion in cash.Source: Japan AnalyticsFINANCING RECONCILIATION - The clean-surplus reconciliation of financial activities nets off Free Cash Flow, Shareholder Cash Flow, Net Non-Operating Income/Expenses After Tax (NONOPAT), and Minorites and Adjustments to sum to the Change in Net Financial Assets. FY2020-Q4's ¥8.4 trillion Free Cash Flow surplus was more than absorbed by Shareholder Cash Flow, Minorities and a hefty ¥5.4 trillion in Non-Operating Expenses, mostly driven by the Valuation Differences and Currency Translation items in Other Comprehensive Income. The 'downside' of excessive cash levels is the temptation to invest in market-related instruments whose volatility is now directly reflected in Shareholders' Equity. 
In the DETAIL below, we shall examine the 'top' or 'bottom' thirty large-cap non-financial companies by the following metrics, all scaled by current market capitalisation and make some company-specific comments and recommendations:-
Financing Cash Flow
Change in Cash
Change in Net Financial Assets



🇯🇵 JAPAN - Stress Tests Part 4 - From Free Cash Flow to Change in Cash

<p><strong>FROM OPERATING TO FINANCING CASH FLOWS</strong> -  Having examined Operating Cash Flow in our previous <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/japan-stress-tests-part-2-operating-cash-flow-accruals" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:40321" rel="noopener">Insight</a>, we shall look into the 'stressors' between Operating Cash Flow and Financing Cash Flow. In our reformulated Cash Flow Statements, cash flows relating to operating activities are divided into Operating Cash Flows and Investing Cash Flows, which comprise Fixed Asset and Inventory Cash Flows.  Free Cash Flow is the sum of Operating Cash Flow, Fixed Asset Cash Flow and Inventory Cash Flow. Inventories are not included in Operating Cash Flow as they are considered discretionary, are often related to Fixed asset Cash Flows, and can be highly seasonal.</p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/141/225/original/2020-06-21_08-34-07.png?1592698079" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="141225"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source: Japan Analytics</div><p><strong>JAPAN WAS FCF POSITIVE IN Q4..</strong> - Despite the decline in Operating Cash Flow in the last quarter (the final quarter of the Fiscal Year for most Japanese companies), Investing Cash Flow was more positive than in any quarter since FY2016-Q4, which also coincided with the last business cycle low. As a result, the aggregate Free Cash Flow for the 3,639 listed non-financial companies (excluding<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rakuten-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31:1" rel="noopener"> Rakuten (4755 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/z-holdings-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19603:1" rel="noopener">Z Holdings (4689 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/japan-post-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:359:1" rel="noopener">Japan Post (6178 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/softbank-group-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:315:1" rel="noopener">Softbank Group (9984 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sony-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:563:1" rel="noopener">Sony (6758 JP)</a>) was an impressive ¥8.4 trillion or an annualised yield of 6.4%.</p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/141/223/original/2020-06-21_08-51-12.png?1592697088" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="141223"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source: Japan Analytics</div><p><strong>..AS CAPEX WAS PUT ON HOLD</strong> - Seasonally Japanese companies capital expenditures are higher in the second half of the fiscal year- in FY2019, ¥21trillion was added to Operating Assets. In contrast, FY2020 saw a 79% decline in capex to ¥4.4 trillion, all of which was spent in the third quarter. This decline is the most substantial second-half quarter-on-quarter contraction in fixed asset outflows since 2009.   </p><p>In the <strong>DETAIL</strong> below, we shall highlight those 'outlier' large-cap companies which are either end of the capex, inventory and Free Cash Flow tables, and focus on those with the greatest intimations of business 'stress'. We have excluded the Real Estate Sector from this analysis due to the inherent volatility of fixed assets and inventory cash flows fo these companies.</p>

FROM OPERATING TO FINANCING CASH FLOWS -  Having examined Operating Cash Flow in our previous Insight, we shall look into the 'stressors' between Operating Cash Flow and Financing Cash Flow. In our reformulated Cash Flow Statements, cash flows relating to operating activities are divided into Operating Cash Flows and Investing Cash Flows, which comprise Fixed Asset and Inventory Cash Flows.  Free Cash Flow is the sum of Operating Cash Flow, Fixed Asset Cash Flow and Inventory Cash Flow. Inventories are not included in Operating Cash Flow as they are considered discretionary, are often related to Fixed asset Cash Flows, and can be highly seasonal.Source: Japan AnalyticsJAPAN WAS FCF POSITIVE IN Q4.. - Despite the decline in Operating Cash Flow in the last quarter (the final quarter of the Fiscal Year for most Japanese companies), Investing Cash Flow was more positive than in any quarter since FY2016-Q4, which also coincided with the last business cycle low. As a result, the aggregate Free Cash Flow for the 3,639 listed non-financial companies (excluding Rakuten (4755 JP), Z Holdings (4689 JP), Japan Post (6178 JP), Softbank Group (9984 JP) and Sony (6758 JP)) was an impressive ¥8.4 trillion or an annualised yield of 6.4%.Source: Japan Analytics..AS CAPEX WAS PUT ON HOLD - Seasonally Japanese companies capital expenditures are higher in the second half of the fiscal year- in FY2019, ¥21trillion was added to Operating Assets. In contrast, FY2020 saw a 79% decline in capex to ¥4.4 trillion, all of which was spent in the third quarter. This decline is the most substantial second-half quarter-on-quarter contraction in fixed asset outflows since 2009.   In the DETAIL below, we shall highlight those 'outlier' large-cap companies which are either end of the capex, inventory and Free Cash Flow tables, and focus on those with the greatest intimations of business 'stress'. We have excluded the Real Estate Sector from this analysis due to the inherent volatility of fixed assets and inventory cash flows fo these companies.

🇯🇵 JAPAN - Stress Tests Part 3 - Inventory, Fixed Asset & Free Cash Flows

<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/139/255/original/2020-06-11_08-36-54.png?1591832240" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="139255"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source: Japan Analytics</div><p><strong>STRESS TESTS</strong> - This Insight is the first in a series that will use a variety of standard and less-frequently used 'stress-tests' to look through the current euphoria and assess where business risk is concentrated among larger Japanese companies. According to Tokyo Shoko Research, 171 listed Japanese firms have raised nearly ¥10 trillion in new funds to weather COVID-19.</p><p><strong>ALTMAN Z-SCORES</strong> - The first Insight will update our earlier Who's<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/japan-who-s-swimming-naked-part-2-altman-z-score" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:37316" rel="noopener"> Swimming Naked?</a> Insight and focus on the Altman Z-Score as updated for the most recent quarterly results for both manufacturing and non-manufacturing companies.  In each category, ee will look at both the companies that are below Altman's 'distress' levels and those companies that have the most significant negative deviation from their seven-year average score. Only six of the bottom-thirty manufacturing and five of the bottom-thirty manufacturing companies have outperformed over one year. Many are already Oversold and offer potential value opportunities -as with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nissan-motor-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:72:1" rel="noopener">Nissan Motor (7201 JP)</a> which is now as distressed as when Carlos Ghosn first arrived.  </p><p><strong>QUASI-FINANCIAL FIRMS</strong> - The Z-Score methodology does not work for financial firms. Accordingly, five non-financial companies which have significant financial subsidiaries - <strong> <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rakuten-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31:1" rel="noopener">Rakuten (4755 JP)</a></strong>,<strong> <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/z-holdings-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19603:1" rel="noopener">Z Holdings (4689 JP)</a></strong>, <strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/japan-post-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:359:1" rel="noopener">Japan Post (6178 JP)</a></strong>, <strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/softbank-group-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:315:1" rel="noopener">Softbank Group (9984 JP)</a></strong> and <strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sony-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:563:1" rel="noopener">Sony (6758 JP)</a></strong>- have been excluded from this analysis. </p>

Source: Japan AnalyticsSTRESS TESTS - This Insight is the first in a series that will use a variety of standard and less-frequently used 'stress-tests' to look through the current euphoria and assess where business risk is concentrated among larger Japanese companies. According to Tokyo Shoko Research, 171 listed Japanese firms have raised nearly ¥10 trillion in new funds to weather COVID-19.ALTMAN Z-SCORES - The first Insight will update our earlier Who's Swimming Naked? Insight and focus on the Altman Z-Score as updated for the most recent quarterly results for both manufacturing and non-manufacturing companies.  In each category, ee will look at both the companies that are below Altman's 'distress' levels and those companies that have the most significant negative deviation from their seven-year average score. Only six of the bottom-thirty manufacturing and five of the bottom-thirty manufacturing companies have outperformed over one year. Many are already Oversold and offer potential value opportunities -as with Nissan Motor (7201 JP) which is now as distressed as when Carlos Ghosn first arrived.  QUASI-FINANCIAL FIRMS - The Z-Score methodology does not work for financial firms. Accordingly, five non-financial companies which have significant financial subsidiaries -  Rakuten (4755 JP), Z Holdings (4689 JP), Japan Post (6178 JP), Softbank Group (9984 JP) and Sony (6758 JP)- have been excluded from this analysis. 

🇯🇵 JAPAN - Stress Tests Part 1 - Altman Z-Scores

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>On 19 May 2026 I wrote <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/japan-navel-gazing-thinking-about-the-value-of-toshiba" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:238776" rel="noopener">[Japan Navel-Gazing] Thinking About The Value of Toshiba</a>. I pointed out that it was a fair bit more than people might think. </li>
<li>Since then, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kioxia-holdings-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29243:1" rel="noopener">Kioxia Holdings (285A JP)</a> shares are up 95% and the value of Toshiba's shares in Kioxia are up an additional ¥4trln.</li>
<li>That has repercussions. Since I wrote, one company told investors the impact on their results. There are read-throughs.</li>
</ul>


On 19 May 2026 I wrote [Japan Navel-Gazing] Thinking About The Value of Toshiba. I pointed out that it was a fair bit more than people might think. 
Since then, Kioxia Holdings (285A JP) shares are up 95% and the value of Toshiba's shares in Kioxia are up an additional ¥4trln.
That has repercussions. Since I wrote, one company told investors the impact on their results. There are read-throughs.


[More Japan Navel-Gazing] Thinking About The Value of Toshiba with Kioxia at ¥96k

Japan

Chubu Electric Power Company, Incorporated generates, transmits, distributes, and sells electricity in Chubu area.  The Company's service area includes Aichi, Gifu, Mie, Nagano, and part of Shizuoka Prefecture.

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Chubu Electric Power Co (9502 JP)

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🇯🇵 JAPAN • Market Update & Results & Revisions 10/​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​30

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FROM FREE CASH FLOW TO CHANGE IN CASH - In Parts 2 and 3 of this series, we covered Operating Cash Flow, Fixed Asset Cash Flow and Inventory Cash...

Campbell Gunn

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FROM OPERATING TO FINANCING CASH FLOWS - Having examined Operating Cash Flow in our previous Insight, we shall look into the 'stressors' between...

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STRESS TESTS - This Insight is the first in a series that will use a variety of standard and less-frequently used 'stress-tests' to look through...

Campbell Gunn

[More Japan Navel-Gazing] Thinking About The Value of Toshiba with Kioxia at ¥96k

Kioxia is up 95% in less than a month. That means my navel-gazing about Toshiba four weeks ago is now outdated. So now it is UPdated. It's still...

Travis Lundy

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