Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jardine-cycle-carriage-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:347:1" rel="noopener">Jardine Cycle &amp; Carriage (JCNC SP)</a>'s implied stub value is around its highest-ever level, dating back to 2004. </li>
<li>The simple ratio of JCNC/ <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/astra-international-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:46:1" rel="noopener">Astra International (ASII IJ)</a> is also the highest level outside the brief spikes post-Covid and during the 2008 GFC.</li>
<li>There is no apparent justification for the current valuation. And a takeover from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jardine-matheson-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19718:1" rel="noopener">Jardine Matheson Holdings (JM SP)</a> at these levels appears unrealistic. </li>
</ul>



Jardine Cycle &amp; Carriage (JCNC SP)'s implied stub value is around its highest-ever level, dating back to 2004. 
The simple ratio of JCNC/ Astra International (ASII IJ) is also the highest level outside the brief spikes post-Covid and during the 2008 GFC.
There is no apparent justification for the current valuation. And a takeover from Jardine Matheson Holdings (JM SP) at these levels appears unrealistic. 


Equity Bottom-Up

Mandarin Oriental International / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Hong Kong is - very gradually - rolling back Covid restrictions</li>
<li>That's a welcome relief for tourists, and for hospitality companies dependent on tourism. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mandarin-oriental-international-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4773:1" rel="noopener">Mandarin Oriental International (MAND SP)</a> is trading cheap at 0.7x P/B against 1.8x on average (five years) pre-Covid.</li>
</ul>


Hong Kong is - very gradually - rolling back Covid restrictions
That's a welcome relief for tourists, and for hospitality companies dependent on tourism. 

Mandarin Oriental International (MAND SP) is trading cheap at 0.7x P/B against 1.8x on average (five years) pre-Covid.


Mandarin Oriental (MAND SP): Life Is Suite

<ul>
<li>And eagle-eyed reader spotted <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-lung-properties-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:49:1" rel="noopener">Hang Lung Properties (101 HK)</a>'s scrip dividend option for the FY23 final dividend. That's the first time I've seen HLP provide this alternative. </li>
<li>Over the years, the Chan family and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-lung-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:50:1" rel="noopener">Hang Lung (10 HK)</a> have chipped away at HLG's and HLP's minorities. HLP and HLG are currently trading at all-time low P/Bs. </li>
<li>This scrip dividend, which takes a page out of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jardine-matheson-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19718:1" rel="noopener">Jardine Matheson (JM SP)</a>'s playbook, would boost HLG's stake in HLP to ~63% from 61.24% currently; if opting only for scrip.</li>
</ul>


And eagle-eyed reader spotted Hang Lung Properties (101 HK)'s scrip dividend option for the FY23 final dividend. That's the first time I've seen HLP provide this alternative. 
Over the years, the Chan family and Hang Lung (10 HK) have chipped away at HLG's and HLP's minorities. HLP and HLG are currently trading at all-time low P/Bs. 
This scrip dividend, which takes a page out of Jardine Matheson (JM SP)'s playbook, would boost HLG's stake in HLP to ~63% from 61.24% currently; if opting only for scrip.


Hang Lung Group: Thoughts On HLP's Scrip Dividend

<ul>
<li>According to Sing Tao, two PRC firms and a mainland bank have formed a consortium to acquire <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hongkong-land-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15465:1" rel="noopener">Hongkong Land (HKL SP)</a>'s 33-storey Three Exchange Square.</li>
<li>This "news" is straight out of left field. For its part, HKL said the market rumour is pure speculation.</li>
<li>HKL's P/B of 0.24x is closing in on its all-time low of 0.21x during the depths of Covid. </li>
</ul>


According to Sing Tao, two PRC firms and a mainland bank have formed a consortium to acquire Hongkong Land (HKL SP)'s 33-storey Three Exchange Square.
This "news" is straight out of left field. For its part, HKL said the market rumour is pure speculation.
HKL's P/B of 0.24x is closing in on its all-time low of 0.21x during the depths of Covid. 


Hongkong Land: Exchange Square Sale Would Be BIG News. (If True)

<ul>
<li>They are rumours doing the rounds that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jardine-matheson-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19718:1" rel="noopener">Jardine Matheson Holdings (JM SP)</a> could see potential inflow from a free float upweight in the MSCI May review.</li>
<li>The inflow is reportedly predicated on a reassessment of the 59% stake held in Matheson by the privatised <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jardine-strategic-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15081:1" rel="noopener">Jardine Strategic Holdings (JS SP)</a>, that was subsequently cancelled in May 2022.</li>
<li>Elsewhere, Matheson's NAV discount is toward the wide end of its one-year range. </li>
</ul>


They are rumours doing the rounds that Jardine Matheson Holdings (JM SP) could see potential inflow from a free float upweight in the MSCI May review.
The inflow is reportedly predicated on a reassessment of the 59% stake held in Matheson by the privatised Jardine Strategic Holdings (JS SP), that was subsequently cancelled in May 2022.
Elsewhere, Matheson's NAV discount is toward the wide end of its one-year range. 


Singapore

Jardine Strategic Holdings Limited is a holding company with principal interests in Jardine Matheson, Dairy Farm, Hongkong Land, Mandarin Oriental, and Cycle and Carriage.  The Company, through its subsidiaries, operates auto distribution, food and retailing, property investment, property development, and hotel operations.

Jardine Strategic Holdings (JS SP)

JCNC's Logic-Defying Valuation

There is no apparent justification for the current level. Expect Matheson to chip away at minorities. But a full-blown Offer appears unrealistic....

David Blennerhassett

Mandarin Oriental (MAND SP): Life Is Suite

Mandarin Oriental is trading cheap at 0.7x P/B against 1.8x on average (5 years) pre-Covid. Business will continue to improve from here. The...

David Blennerhassett

Hang Lung Group: Thoughts On HLP's Scrip Dividend

At 0.13x and 027x P/B - both all-time lows - HLG and HLP are super cheap. I'd still be cautious jumping into either HLG or HLP in a major way

David Blennerhassett

Hongkong Land: Exchange Square Sale Would Be BIG News. (If True)

Reportedly two PRC firms and a mainland bank intend to acquire Hongkong Land''s Three Exchange Square. HKL said the rumor is pure speculation....

David Blennerhassett

Jardine Matheson: MSCI Upweight Musings

Some readers place a 50% probability of an MSCI upweight. Of more interest is Matheson's ongoing buyback program. They have recently, and...

David Blennerhassett