Index Rebal/Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Index Rebal/Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes for ASX 200, 100, 50, and 20 in the run-up to the June 2025 index rebal event.</li>
<li>We expect one change for ASX 20, one change for ASX 50, two changes for ASX 100, and one change for ASX 200. </li>
<li>The official index changes will be announced after the close on Friday 6th June 2025.</li>
</ul>


In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes for ASX 200, 100, 50, and 20 in the run-up to the June 2025 index rebal event.
We expect one change for ASX 20, one change for ASX 50, two changes for ASX 100, and one change for ASX 200. 
The official index changes will be announced after the close on Friday 6th June 2025.


Quiddity Leaderboard ASX Jun25: LONGs up 6% Vs SHORTs; Strong Alpha; Reference Period Ending Soon

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

<ul>
<li>With the review period nearly complete, there could be one change each for the S&amp;P/ASX20 Index, S&amp;P/ASX50 Index and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX200 INDEX</a> and two changes for the S&amp;P/ASX100 Index in June.</li>
<li>Passive trackers will need to buy between 1-12.5 days of ADV in the forecast adds and sell between 0.6-9.8 days of ADV in the forecast deletes.</li>
<li>While cumulative excess volume has increased in the forecast adds and deletes, there could be underpositioning relative to the estimated passive flow in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/perseus-mining-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15306:1" rel="noopener">Perseus Mining</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/viva-energy-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27220:1" rel="noopener">Viva Energy</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nick-scali-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20803:1" rel="noopener">Nick Scali</a>.</li>
</ul>


With the review period nearly complete, there could be one change each for the S&amp;P/ASX20 Index, S&amp;P/ASX50 Index and S&amp;P/ASX200 INDEX and two changes for the S&amp;P/ASX100 Index in June.
Passive trackers will need to buy between 1-12.5 days of ADV in the forecast adds and sell between 0.6-9.8 days of ADV in the forecast deletes.
While cumulative excess volume has increased in the forecast adds and deletes, there could be underpositioning relative to the estimated passive flow in Perseus Mining, Viva Energy and Nick Scali.


S&P/ASX Index Rebalance Preview (June 2025): 10 Potential Changes Across Indices

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Back on 27th March, the family trust of the Widjaja Family made a voluntary unconditional general Offer for the 29.7% in <strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sinarmas-land-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1144:1" rel="noopener">Sinarmas Land (SML SP)</a></strong> not held.</li>
<li>Pricing was uninspiring: the S$0.31 cash Offer (not final) for the (mainly) Indo property play was a 12.9% premium to undisturbed; and a 73.9% discount to the 1H24 S$1.19/share NAV.</li>
<li>The IFA agreed and said "<strong>Not Fair but Reasonable"</strong>, with an estimated fair value range of S$0.350 to S$0.361/share. This (still) needs a bump. But that is looking less likely.</li>
</ul>


Back on 27th March, the family trust of the Widjaja Family made a voluntary unconditional general Offer for the 29.7% in Sinarmas Land (SML SP) not held.
Pricing was uninspiring: the S$0.31 cash Offer (not final) for the (mainly) Indo property play was a 12.9% premium to undisturbed; and a 73.9% discount to the 1H24 S$1.19/share NAV.
The IFA agreed and said "Not Fair but Reasonable", with an estimated fair value range of S$0.350 to S$0.361/share. This (still) needs a bump. But that is looking less likely.


Sinarmas Land: Bumping Fades Despite IFA Opining Not Fair

<ul>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes for ASX 200, 100, 50, and 20 in the run-up to the June 2025 index rebal event.</li>
<li>We expect one change for ASX 20, one change for ASX 50, two changes for ASX 100, and one change for ASX 200. One month left in the reference period.</li>
<li>Our long basket is up 14% vs shorts in a month. Index Rebal is coming back. ASX Index final index changes will be announced publicly on 6th June 2025.</li>
</ul>


In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes for ASX 200, 100, 50, and 20 in the run-up to the June 2025 index rebal event.
We expect one change for ASX 20, one change for ASX 50, two changes for ASX 100, and one change for ASX 200. One month left in the reference period.
Our long basket is up 14% vs shorts in a month. Index Rebal is coming back. ASX Index final index changes will be announced publicly on 6th June 2025.


Quiddity Leaderboard ASX Jun25: LONGs up +14% Vs SHORTs in a Month; Some Changes to Expectations

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

DZT Research

DZT Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of Apr 11th (reported today) which has an aggregated short interest worth USD23.5bn.</li>
<li>We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight short interest changes in Northern Star Resources, Bluescope Steel, Westpac, CSL, Santos, Goodman, Coles.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of Apr 11th (reported today) which has an aggregated short interest worth USD23.5bn.
We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
We highlight short interest changes in Northern Star Resources, Bluescope Steel, Westpac, CSL, Santos, Goodman, Coles.


ASX Short Interest Weekly (Apr 11th): Northern Star Resources, Bluescope Steel, Westpac, CSL, Santos

Australia

Stanmore Coal Ltd. explores for coal in Australia. The Company's interests include a portfolio of coal assets within Queensland's Bowen and Surat Basin coal provinces.

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Stanmore Coal (SMR AU)

Quiddity Leaderboard ASX Jun25: LONGs up 6% Vs SHORTs; Strong Alpha; Reference Period Ending Soon

These are our final expectations for the ASX index family for the June 2025 index review. The reference period ended on Friday 23rd May 2025. The...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

S&P/ASX Index Rebalance Preview (June 2025): 10 Potential Changes Across Indices

There could be 10 changes for the ASX index family in June. Shorts have picked up in a few names. There is positioning in the forecast adds and...

Brian Freitas

Sinarmas Land: Bumping Fades Despite IFA Opining Not Fair

This deserved a bump. But that scenario appears increasingly less likely. If illiquid arbs are your thing, and already in, I'd hit the bid. If not...

David Blennerhassett

Quiddity Leaderboard ASX Jun25: LONGs up +14% Vs SHORTs in a Month; Some Changes to Expectations

Collectively, there could be US$416mn one-way flow for the ASX index family in June 2025. Most of the expected index changes could have multiple...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

ASX Short Interest Weekly (Apr 11th): Northern Star Resources, Bluescope Steel, Westpac, CSL, Santos

We analyzed ASX short interest report for the past week and highlight short interest changes in Northern Star Resources, Bluescope Steel, Westpac,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

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