Japanese Turnaround Situations, Short-Ideas, Azabu Research

Michael Allen

Japanese Turnaround Situations, Short-Ideas

Azabu Research

Azabu Research is a publishing and consulting firm focused on distressed equities in the Japanese market. We specialize in turnaround strategies, corporate combinations, divestitures, and restructuring.

Publisher of the Tokyo Turnaround Letter, which conducts the most thorough research possible of publicly available information, including forensic tests for fraudulent overstatement of assets and understatement of liabilities, as well as rigorous market and industry analysis to assess the underlying strengths of the company’s products or services, the appropriateness of the company’s turnaround strategy, and the skill of its current management team. The average length of a report exceeds 25 pages of text and tables, excluding any disclosures or executive summaries.

We have more than 30 years of experience in applying this process to distressed equities in Japan. Additionally, subscribers have free access to detailed, yet easily navigated earnings models for the target company as well as the top five comparable companies, and unlimited access to the analyst for follow-up questions.

Azabu Research also conducts be-spoke research on a project basis, and provides consulting services to companies looking to restructure, divest, make acquisitions, go public, or improve investor sentiment toward their stock.

Independent Research and Consulting Firm

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>2025 will start with more attractive turnaround opportunities than we have seen in a long time. </li>
<li>An uptick in TOBs, MBOs and merger discussions makes it suddenly no longer safe to short low-PBR companies indiscriminately.</li>
<li>Investors are noticing. More than two-dozen large- and medium-cap stocks with deep discounts to the benchmark began to bounce off well-defined support levels in late December.</li>
</ul>


2025 will start with more attractive turnaround opportunities than we have seen in a long time. 
An uptick in TOBs, MBOs and merger discussions makes it suddenly no longer safe to short low-PBR companies indiscriminately.
Investors are noticing. More than two-dozen large- and medium-cap stocks with deep discounts to the benchmark began to bounce off well-defined support levels in late December.


Unloved Japan Round Up Jan. 3: Set Up for A Banner Year?

Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

Honda Motor Co Ltd (Adr) / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Honda Motor Co., Ltd.'s financial performance in the first quarter of FY 2025 presented a complex picture with both strengths and challenges noted.</li><li>On the positive side, Honda achieved its highest ever quarterly operating profit of JPY 484.7 billion, up JPY 90.2 billion year-over-year, translating into a robust operating profit margin of 9%.</li><li>The growth was largely driven by an increase in unit sales in the Motorcycle Business, particularly in India and Brazil, and a strong performance in the Automobile Business, especially with hybrid models in Japan and the U.S. Baptista Research looks to evaluate the different factors that could influence the company's price in the near future and attempts to carry out an independent valuation of the company using a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) methodology.</li></ul>

Honda Motor Co., Ltd.'s financial performance in the first quarter of FY 2025 presented a complex picture with both strengths and challenges noted.On the positive side, Honda achieved its highest ever quarterly operating profit of JPY 484.7 billion, up JPY 90.2 billion year-over-year, translating into a robust operating profit margin of 9%.The growth was largely driven by an increase in unit sales in the Motorcycle Business, particularly in India and Brazil, and a strong performance in the Automobile Business, especially with hybrid models in Japan and the U.S. Baptista Research looks to evaluate the different factors that could influence the company's price in the near future and attempts to carry out an independent valuation of the company using a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) methodology.

Honda Motor Co.: How Is It Adapting To The Shifting Global Vehicle Mix & Regional Market Dynamics?

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analysed the earning revision of component stocks of MSCI Japan in the past month.</li>
<li>We tabulated stocks with the top impact on index's EPS, stocks' EPS revision, and revenue revision.</li>
<li>We highlighted EPS revision on Toyota Motor, SoftBank, Rakuten, Kioxia, Sony Financial, Ebara, Honda Motor, Softbank, Ebara, Kioxia, Toyota Motor, Honda Motor, Sony Financial, Rakuten.</li>
</ul>


We analysed the earning revision of component stocks of MSCI Japan in the past month.
We tabulated stocks with the top impact on index's EPS, stocks' EPS revision, and revenue revision.
We highlighted EPS revision on Toyota Motor, SoftBank, Rakuten, Kioxia, Sony Financial, Ebara, Honda Motor, Softbank, Ebara, Kioxia, Toyota Motor, Honda Motor, Sony Financial, Rakuten.


MSCI Japan Index Earning Revision (Nov): Toyota Motor, SoftBank, Rakuten, Kioxia, Sony Financial

Tracking developments across tech supply chains, Tech Supply Chain Tracker

Tech Supply Chain Tracker

Tracking developments across tech supply chains

<ul><li>Honda and Nissan merger talks hit a roadblock as Nissan rejects becoming a subsidiary, stalling negotiations between the automakers.</li><li>Resistance from automakers to Apple's CarPlay 2.0 upgrades is causing challenges in integration, potentially impacting the future of in-car technology.</li><li>SoftBank ends DeepSeek usage in partnership with OpenAI, while Alphabet commends DeepSeek's progress and emphasizes AI efficiency for competitive advantage.</li></ul>

Honda and Nissan merger talks hit a roadblock as Nissan rejects becoming a subsidiary, stalling negotiations between the automakers.Resistance from automakers to Apple's CarPlay 2.0 upgrades is causing challenges in integration, potentially impacting the future of in-car technology.SoftBank ends DeepSeek usage in partnership with OpenAI, while Alphabet commends DeepSeek's progress and emphasizes AI efficiency for competitive advantage.

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (06-Feb-2025): Honda-Nissan merger talks fail as Nissan rejects subsidiary.

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/honda-motor-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:154:1" rel="noopener">Honda (7267 JP) </a> announced a HUGE ¥1.1trln buyback. At ~¥1500/share, this would increase EPS by 17+%.  Buy the shares in the low ¥1,400s. Expect this to be a range trade.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-henlius-biotech-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27888:1" rel="noopener">Shanghai Henlius Biotech (2696 HK)</a>'s Circular is now out. Hoome straight and done deal. </li>
<li>Murakami-San has started selling <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/exedy-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6516:1" rel="noopener">Exedy Corp (7278 JP)</a>, earlier than expected. Best to get out first, ask questions later.</li>
</ul>



Honda (7267 JP)  announced a HUGE ¥1.1trln buyback. At ~¥1500/share, this would increase EPS by 17+%.  Buy the shares in the low ¥1,400s. Expect this to be a range trade.

Shanghai Henlius Biotech (2696 HK)'s Circular is now out. Hoome straight and done deal. 
Murakami-San has started selling Exedy Corp (7278 JP), earlier than expected. Best to get out first, ask questions later.


Last Week in Event SPACE: Honda, Shanghai Henlius, Exedy, Arcadium Lithium

Japan

Honda Motor Co., Ltd. develops, manufactures, and distributes motorcycles, automobiles, and power products such as generators and farm machinery. The Company also operates a financial credit business. Honda Motor has manufacturing facilities in the US, Canada, the UK, France, Italy, Spain, Brazil, Mexico, India, and Thailand.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Honda Motor (7267 JP)

Unloved Japan Round Up Jan. 3: Set Up for A Banner Year?

An uptick in TOBs, MBOs, and mergers creating the best environment for deep value turnarounds in a long time. Dozens of discounted stocks started...

Michael Allen

Honda Motor Co.: How Is It Adapting To The Shifting Global Vehicle Mix & Regional Market Dynamics?

Honda Motor Co., Ltd.'s financial performance in the first quarter of FY 2025 presented a complex picture with both strengths and challenges...

Baptista Research

MSCI Japan Index Earning Revision (Nov): Toyota Motor, SoftBank, Rakuten, Kioxia, Sony Financial

We analyzed MSCI Japan's consensus for Nov 2025 and highlighted changes of EPS in Toyota Motor (7203 JP), SoftBank (9984 JP), Rakuten (4755 JP),...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (06-Feb-2025): Honda-Nissan merger talks fail as Nissan rejects subsidiary.

Honda and Nissan merger talks stall over subsidiary refusal, automakers resist Apple CarPlay 2.0, SoftBank halts DeepSeek, China smartphone...

Tech Supply Chain Tracker

Last Week in Event SPACE: Honda, Shanghai Henlius, Exedy, Arcadium Lithium

It’s Sunday! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed during the...

David Blennerhassett

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Unloved Japan Round Up Jan. 3: Set Up for A Banner Year?

An uptick in TOBs, MBOs, and mergers​ creating the best environment for deep value turnarounds in a long time. Dozens of discounted stocks started...

Michael Allen

Honda Motor Co.: How Is It Adapting To The Shifting Global Vehicle Mix & Regional Market Dynamics?

Honda Motor Co., Ltd.'s financial performance in the first quarter of FY 2025 presented a complex picture with both strengths and challenges...

Baptista Research

MSCI Japan Index Earning Revision (Nov): Toyota Motor, SoftBank, Rakuten, Kioxia, Sony Financial

We analyzed MSCI Japan's consensus for Nov 2025 and highlighted changes of EPS in Toyota Motor (7203 JP), SoftBank (9984 JP), Rakuten (4755 JP),...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (06-Feb-2025): Honda-Nissan merger talks fail as Nissan rejects subsidiary.

Honda and Nissan merger talks stall over subsidiary refusal, automakers resist Apple CarPlay 2.0, SoftBank halts DeepSeek, China smartphone...

Tech Supply Chain Tracker

Last Week in Event SPACE: Honda, Shanghai Henlius, Exedy, Arcadium Lithium

It’s Sunday! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed during the...

David Blennerhassett

An uptick in TOBs, MBOs, and mergers creating the best environment for deep value turnarounds in a long time. Dozens of discounted stocks started...