Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

Mandarin Oriental International / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Concurrent with the sale of 13 floors of OCB to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group-holding-ltd-d7b798e2-202d-4e01-9a1e-799e2ae8f0c7" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28434:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jardine-matheson-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19718:1" rel="noopener">Jardine Matheson (JM SP)</a> is seeking to privatise <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mandarin-oriental-international-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4773:1" rel="noopener">Mandarin Oriental (MAND SP)</a> at US$3.35/share by way of a Scheme.</li>
<li>The Offer Price is a 52.3% premium to undisturbed, and a 53.7% premium to NAV. Clean deal. And MAND has consistently traded tight to terms. </li>
<li>The <a href="https://links.sgx.com/FileOpen/Shareholder%20Circular.ashx?App=Announcement&amp;FileID=867134" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Scheme Doc is now out</a> for MAND. The Court Meeting is the 8th December. As with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jardine-strategic-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15081:1" rel="noopener">Jardine Strategic Holdings (JS SP)</a>'s 2021 takeover, there is no independent assessment report. </li>
</ul>


Concurrent with the sale of 13 floors of OCB to Alibaba, Jardine Matheson (JM SP) is seeking to privatise Mandarin Oriental (MAND SP) at US$3.35/share by way of a Scheme.
The Offer Price is a 52.3% premium to undisturbed, and a 53.7% premium to NAV. Clean deal. And MAND has consistently traded tight to terms. 
The Scheme Doc is now out for MAND. The Court Meeting is the 8th December. As with Jardine Strategic Holdings (JS SP)'s 2021 takeover, there is no independent assessment report. 


Mandarin Oriental (MAND SP): 8th Dec Vote On Matheson's Offer

<ul>
<li>Concurrent with the sale of 13 floors of OCB to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group-holding-ltd-d7b798e2-202d-4e01-9a1e-799e2ae8f0c7" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28434:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jardine-matheson-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19718:1" rel="noopener">Jardine Matheson (JM SP)</a> announced on the 17th October an Offer for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mandarin-oriental-international-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4773:1" rel="noopener">Mandarin Oriental (MAND SP)</a>'s minorities at US$3.35/share.</li>
<li>This is a clean, full, "dull" Offer. And MAND is trading super tight to terms at ~2.1% gross, with possible payment (my estimate) late Feb 2026.</li>
<li>Proceeds from the OCB sale will be US$925mn. And taking out MAND's minorities will set Matheson back ~US$1bn. Yet the market is now assigning US$2.1bn less for Matheson's stub ops. </li>
</ul>


Concurrent with the sale of 13 floors of OCB to Alibaba, Jardine Matheson (JM SP) announced on the 17th October an Offer for Mandarin Oriental (MAND SP)'s minorities at US$3.35/share.
This is a clean, full, "dull" Offer. And MAND is trading super tight to terms at ~2.1% gross, with possible payment (my estimate) late Feb 2026.
Proceeds from the OCB sale will be US$925mn. And taking out MAND's minorities will set Matheson back ~US$1bn. Yet the market is now assigning US$2.1bn less for Matheson's stub ops. 


Jardine Matheson's Underperformance Post Mandarin Offer

<ul>
<li>The prior MO for the Jardines group was never sell your commercial buildings. This year marks a paradigm shift in that line of thinking. </li>
<li>First <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hongkong-land-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15465:1" rel="noopener">Hongkong Land (HKL SP)</a> sold nine floors of One Exchange Square to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-exchanges-clearing" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:490:1" rel="noopener">HKEX (388 HK)</a>. The first such sale since 1988.</li>
<li>Now <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mandarin-oriental-international-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4773:1" rel="noopener">Mandarin Oriental (MAND SP)</a> is negotiating the sale of "certain office space" at One Causeway Bay. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jardine-matheson-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19718:1" rel="noopener">Jardine Matheson (JM SP)</a>'s NAV discount and implied stub are at 12-month lows/highs.</li>
</ul>


The prior MO for the Jardines group was never sell your commercial buildings. This year marks a paradigm shift in that line of thinking. 
First Hongkong Land (HKL SP) sold nine floors of One Exchange Square to HKEX (388 HK). The first such sale since 1988.
Now Mandarin Oriental (MAND SP) is negotiating the sale of "certain office space" at One Causeway Bay. Jardine Matheson (JM SP)'s NAV discount and implied stub are at 12-month lows/highs.


Jardine Matheson (JML SP): Additional Office Recycling Speculated

<ul>
<li>The Labubu craze has resulted in a ~200% increase in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pop-mart-international-group-l" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29016:1" rel="noopener">Pop Mart (9992 HK)</a>’s shares YTD. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/miniso-group-holding-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36659:1" rel="noopener">MINISO (9896 HK)</a>'s TOP TOY will be wanting to cash in on this exuberance.</li>
<li>Those who want to buy <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sony-financial-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:564:1" rel="noopener">Sony Financial (8729 JP)</a> may wait until earnings. If shares stayed flat for a month until earnings came out, don't short the eve of earnings.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zijin-mining-group-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6358:1" rel="noopener">Zijin Mining Group (2899 HK)</a> is fully valued as <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zijin-gold-international" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45448:1" rel="noopener">Zijin Gold (2259 HK) </a> trades at a 100% premium to peers on forward PER and EV/EBITDA multiples. </li>
</ul>


The Labubu craze has resulted in a ~200% increase in Pop Mart (9992 HK)’s shares YTD. MINISO (9896 HK)'s TOP TOY will be wanting to cash in on this exuberance.
Those who want to buy Sony Financial (8729 JP) may wait until earnings. If shares stayed flat for a month until earnings came out, don't short the eve of earnings.

Zijin Mining Group (2899 HK) is fully valued as Zijin Gold (2259 HK)  trades at a 100% premium to peers on forward PER and EV/EBITDA multiples. 


Last Week In Event SPACE: MINISO, Sony Financial, Zijin Mining/Gold, Jardines/Mandarin Oriental

Equity Bottom-Up

Jardine Matheson Holdings / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jardine-matheson-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19718:1" rel="noopener">Jardine Matheson Holdings (JM SP)</a> is up ~10% this week and ~30% YTD. 53.3%-held <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hongkong-land-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15465:1" rel="noopener">Hongkong Land (HKL SP)</a>, JMH's largest holding, is up 41% YTD and 85% over the year. </li>
<li>HKL has been on a tear since CEO Michael Smith started on the 1st April 2024, as HKL focused on capital allocation and portfolio management - read deleveraging.</li>
<li>The recent appointment of PAG's Lincoln Pan at the helm of JMH, has the street upbeat he will bring about similar positive developments. That's not unreasonable.</li>
</ul>



Jardine Matheson Holdings (JM SP) is up ~10% this week and ~30% YTD. 53.3%-held Hongkong Land (HKL SP), JMH's largest holding, is up 41% YTD and 85% over the year. 
HKL has been on a tear since CEO Michael Smith started on the 1st April 2024, as HKL focused on capital allocation and portfolio management - read deleveraging.
The recent appointment of PAG's Lincoln Pan at the helm of JMH, has the street upbeat he will bring about similar positive developments. That's not unreasonable.


Jardine Matheson (JM SP) On A Roll As The Street Turns (More) Positive

Hong Kong

Hongkong Land is a major listed property investment, management and development group. 

The Group owns and manages more than 850,000 sq. m. of prime office and luxury retail property in key Asian cities, principally in Hong Kong, Singapore, Beijing and Jakarta.  The Group also has a number of high quality residential, commercial, and mixed-use projects under development in cities across Greater China and Southeast Asia.  In Singapore, its subsidiary, MCL Land, is a well-established residential developer.  

Hongkong Land Holdings Limited is incorporated in Bermuda and has a standard listing on the London Stock Exchange, with secondary listings in Bermuda and Singapore.  The Group’s assets and investments are managed from Hong Kong by Hongkong Land Limited.  Hongkong Land is a member of the Jardine Matheson Group.

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Hongkong Land (HKL SP)

Mandarin Oriental (MAND SP): 8th Dec Vote On Matheson's Offer

Clean, full Offer. MAND is trading around ~2.1%/10.8% gross/annualised, assuming late Jan 2026 payment. Expect more accretion/recycling to come in...

David Blennerhassett

Jardine Matheson's Underperformance Post Mandarin Offer

Proceeds from the OCB sale will be US$925mn. And taking out MAND minorities will cost Matheson ~US$1bn. Yet the market is now assigning US$2.1bn...

David Blennerhassett

Jardine Matheson (JML SP): Additional Office Recycling Speculated

MAND announced that it is selling thirteen floors of One Causeway Bay (OCB) to Alibaba (BABA US) for US$925mn. That's ~US$0.73/share. ...

David Blennerhassett

Last Week In Event SPACE: MINISO, Sony Financial, Zijin Mining/Gold, Jardines/Mandarin Oriental

It’s Sunday! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed during the...

David Blennerhassett

Jardine Matheson (JM SP) On A Roll As The Street Turns (More) Positive

MAND has confirmed it's in discussions to sell some office space in One Causeway Bay (previously the Excelsior Hotel). Alibaba is rumoured to be...

David Blennerhassett

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