Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

Max Healthcare Institute / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/interglobe-aviation-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24877:1" rel="noopener">InterGlobe Aviation Ltd (INDIGO IN)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/max-healthcare-institute-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35275:1" rel="noopener">Max Healthcare Institute (MAXHEALT IN)</a> replace <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hero-motocorp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2391:1" rel="noopener">Hero Motocorp (HMCL IN)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/indusind-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1558:1" rel="noopener">Indusind Bank (IIB IN)</a> in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nifty-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23617:1" rel="noopener">NIFTY Index (NIFTY INDEX)</a> in September.</li>
<li>There are 5 constituent changes to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nifty-100-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36051:1" rel="noopener">Nifty 100 Index (NSE100 INDEX)</a> leading to 4 changes for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nse-nifty-next-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36053:1" rel="noopener">NSE Nifty Next 50 Index (NIFTYJR INDEX)</a>. </li>
<li>There will be global passive buying in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/swiggy-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35630:1" rel="noopener">Swiggy (SWIGGY IN)</a> on Tuesday. Then there will be net selling in the stock at the close on 29 September.</li>
</ul>



InterGlobe Aviation Ltd (INDIGO IN) and Max Healthcare Institute (MAXHEALT IN) replace Hero Motocorp (HMCL IN) and Indusind Bank (IIB IN) in the NIFTY Index (NIFTY INDEX) in September.
There are 5 constituent changes to the Nifty 100 Index (NSE100 INDEX) leading to 4 changes for the NSE Nifty Next 50 Index (NIFTYJR INDEX). 
There will be global passive buying in Swiggy (SWIGGY IN) on Tuesday. Then there will be net selling in the stock at the close on 29 September.


NIFTY50/NEXT50 Index Rebalance: Bunch Of (Mostly) Expected Changes; Positioning Increases

<ul>
<li>There are 13 changes a side for the NIFTY Midcap 150 Index at the September rebalance. There are many stocks with flows from passive trackers of other indices.</li>
<li>Estimated one-way turnover is 7.8% resulting in a round-trip trade of INR 18.23bn (US$209m). With over US$43bn tracking the index actively, the impact on the stocks will be much larger.</li>
<li>The adds to the index have outperformed the deletes over the last 5 months and there has been noticeable outperformance in the last couple of weeks.</li>
</ul>


There are 13 changes a side for the NIFTY Midcap 150 Index at the September rebalance. There are many stocks with flows from passive trackers of other indices.
Estimated one-way turnover is 7.8% resulting in a round-trip trade of INR 18.23bn (US$209m). With over US$43bn tracking the index actively, the impact on the stocks will be much larger.
The adds to the index have outperformed the deletes over the last 5 months and there has been noticeable outperformance in the last couple of weeks.


NIFTY MIDCAP150 Index Rebalance: 13 Changes a Side; Lots of Overlap with Other Index Flow

Financials & FinTech research, Galliano’s Financials Research

Victor Galliano

Financials & FinTech research

Financials & FinTech, EM & Developed Markets

Galliano’s Financials Research

Galliano's Financials Research provides fundamental research in Emerging Markets financials, including FinTech, as well as financials in select Developed Markets.

The investment style applied is generally value oriented, although Growth At Reasonable Price (GARP) strategies can also be used where appropriate. 

Our investment research approach aim is often contrarian, looking to capitalise on overly sceptical or optimistic consensus views. In terms of valuation techniques, the focus is on PBV ratio to ROE, PE multiples and dividend yield, as well as the application of PEG ratios and, where appropriate, Sum of the Parts (SOTP) valuations.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>We take profits on our Canara Bank buy recommendation, due to adverse credit quality trends, and we stick with our two high conviction buy names UBI and Bank of Baroda</li>
<li>UBI ranks top in our proprietary scorecard, replacing Canara Bank; UBI has high earnings and dividend yields; it ranks highly on NPL coverage and it has a well-controlled write-off ratio</li>
<li>Baroda remains our core value pick; it has attractive valuations and potential to expand returns which we expect to emerge over the medium term, especially given its control of write-offs</li>
</ul>


We take profits on our Canara Bank buy recommendation, due to adverse credit quality trends, and we stick with our two high conviction buy names UBI and Bank of Baroda
UBI ranks top in our proprietary scorecard, replacing Canara Bank; UBI has high earnings and dividend yields; it ranks highly on NPL coverage and it has a well-controlled write-off ratio
Baroda remains our core value pick; it has attractive valuations and potential to expand returns which we expect to emerge over the medium term, especially given its control of write-offs


Indian Banks: Stick with Baroda and UBI on the Buy List, Downgrading Canara

<ul>
<li>With the review period now complete, there could be 11 changes for the NIFTY Midcap 150 Index at the September rebalance.</li>
<li>Estimated one-way turnover is 7.7% resulting in a round-trip trade of INR 17.6bn (US$201m). With over US$43bn tracking the index actively, the impact on the stocks will be much larger.</li>
<li>The outright forecast adds have outperformed the forecast deletes over the last 4 months and there has been a jump in the last week.</li>
</ul>


With the review period now complete, there could be 11 changes for the NIFTY Midcap 150 Index at the September rebalance.
Estimated one-way turnover is 7.7% resulting in a round-trip trade of INR 17.6bn (US$201m). With over US$43bn tracking the index actively, the impact on the stocks will be much larger.
The outright forecast adds have outperformed the forecast deletes over the last 4 months and there has been a jump in the last week.


NIFTY MIDCAP150 Index Rebalance Preview: 11 Potential Changes in September

<ul>
<li>In May, SEBI recommended changes to the minimum number of constituents for non-benchmark indices and the capping for those indices. The recommendations have to be implemented by 3 November.</li>
<li>There is a high probability that NSE Indices implements the changes for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nse-nifty-bank-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26811:1" rel="noopener">NSE Nifty Bank Index (NSEBANK INDEX)</a> at the September rebalance. Nothing has been announced yet though.</li>
<li>If implemented in September, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yes-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:767:1" rel="noopener">Yes Bank</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/union-bank-of-india" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:546:1" rel="noopener">Union Bank Of India</a> could be added to the index. Estimated one-way turnover is 22.35% and the round-trip trade is INR 149bn (US$1.7bn). </li>
</ul>


In May, SEBI recommended changes to the minimum number of constituents for non-benchmark indices and the capping for those indices. The recommendations have to be implemented by 3 November.
There is a high probability that NSE Indices implements the changes for the NSE Nifty Bank Index (NSEBANK INDEX) at the September rebalance. Nothing has been announced yet though.
If implemented in September, Yes Bank and Union Bank Of India could be added to the index. Estimated one-way turnover is 22.35% and the round-trip trade is INR 149bn (US$1.7bn). 


NIFTY Bank Index: Big Flows & The Upcoming Methodology Change

India

IndusInd Bank Limited is a Mumbai-based Indian new generation bank established in 1994. The Bank provides a range of banking and financial services including  wholesale banking, credit monitoring, risk management, tele-banking, investment banking and commercial lending. IndusInd Bank operates branches throughout India as well as an office in Dubai and London.

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Indusind Bank (IIB IN)

NIFTY50/NEXT50 Index Rebalance: Bunch Of (Mostly) Expected Changes; Positioning Increases

The changes to the NIFTY/NIFTYJR indices are mostly on expected lines. The inclusion of HZ could be a surprise. There is positioning in the changes...

Brian Freitas

NIFTY MIDCAP150 Index Rebalance: 13 Changes a Side; Lots of Overlap with Other Index Flow

There are 13 changes for the index in Sep. Estimated one-way turnover is 7.8% and the round-trip trade is INR 18.2bn. There are many stocks with...

Brian Freitas

Indian Banks: Stick with Baroda and UBI on the Buy List, Downgrading Canara

We downgrade Canara Bank to neutral due to credit quality concerns, focusing on our conviction buys UBI and Bank of Baroda with their attractive...

Victor Galliano

NIFTY MIDCAP150 Index Rebalance Preview: 11 Potential Changes in September

There could be 11 changes in Sep. Estimated one-way turnover is 7.7% and round-trip trade is INR 17.6bn. With over US$43bn tracking the index...

Brian Freitas

NIFTY Bank Index: Big Flows & The Upcoming Methodology Change

SEBI recommended changes need to be implemented by 3 Nov. That could be done at the Sep rebal. YES Bank, Union Bank are potential adds. HDFCB,...

Brian Freitas

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

NIFTY50/NEXT50 Index Rebalance: Bunch Of (Mostly) Expected Changes; Positioning Increases

The changes to the NIFTY/NIFTYJR indices are mostly on expected lines. The inclusion of HZ could be a surprise. There is positioning in the changes...

Brian Freitas

NIFTY MIDCAP150 Index Rebalance: 13 Changes a Side; Lots of Overlap with Other Index Flow

There are 13 changes for the index in Sep. Estimated one-way turnover is 7.8% and the round-trip trade is INR 18.2bn. There are many stocks with...

Brian Freitas

Indian Banks: Stick with Baroda and UBI on the Buy List, Downgrading Canara

​We downgrade Canara Bank to neutral due to credit quality concerns, focusing on our conviction buys UBI and Bank of Baroda with their attractive...

Victor Galliano

NIFTY MIDCAP150 Index Rebalance Preview: 11 Potential Changes in September

There could be 11 changes in Sep. Estimated one-way turnover is 7.7% and round-trip trade is INR 17.6bn. With over US$43bn tracking the index...

Brian Freitas

NIFTY Bank Index: Big Flows & The Upcoming Methodology Change

SEBI recommended changes need to be implemented by 3 Nov. That could be done at the Sep rebal. YES Bank, Union Bank are potential adds. HDFCB,...

Brian Freitas

We downgrade Canara Bank to neutral due to credit quality concerns, focusing on our conviction buys UBI and Bank of Baroda with their attractive...