Asian Insight Provider - Actionable ideas, CrossASEAN Research

Henry Soediarko

Asian Insight Provider - Actionable ideas

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/minor-international-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2154:1" rel="noopener">Minor International (MINT TB)</a> is trading at 2.4x PBR, slightly higher than during the pre-COVID level at 2x.</li>
<li>Most of its hotels are in Europe (77%) and only half of the food business is in Thailand. </li>
<li>Other Thai stocks have higher exposure to Thai tourism-related activities.</li>
</ul>



Minor International (MINT TB) is trading at 2.4x PBR, slightly higher than during the pre-COVID level at 2x.
Most of its hotels are in Europe (77%) and only half of the food business is in Thailand. 
Other Thai stocks have higher exposure to Thai tourism-related activities.


Minor International (MINT): The Best Stock for Thai Tourism Recovery?

Thai Equity - Bottom-up - Equities, Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

Pi Research

Thai Equity - Bottom-up - Equities

Leading, full-service investment firm in Thailand

Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

Pi Securities is a well known securities company with 40 years experience in the industry, serving more than 60,000 clients. We offer one - stop service providing full range of financial products and services including extensive Brokerage, Proprietary Trading (Equities and Bonds), Advisory Services, Structured Products.

Moreover, our new research team tailored for institutional clients to focus on mid to small cap of Thai equities and trading strategies. Our services offered to our premium clients also include arrangement of company or site visits to with the managements of Thai listed companies.

Note: Effective on 1 March 2022, Country Group Securities PCL changed its name to Pi Securities

<ul>
<li>We expect core earnings recovery in 2HFY23 (Oct’22-Mar’23) to come at slower pace than we previously expected given;1.)heavy marketing and set-up costs needed to be allocate for digital and financial </li>
<li>2QFY23 (July-Sept’22) core profit fell to four-quarter low The company reported 2QFY23 net profit at Bt474m. Excluding extra items, core earnings should be at Bt336m,(+6%YoY-45%QoQ),which is lower than market estimate.</li>
<li>QoQ contraction was due to equity income that turned to loss worth Bt116m compared with Bt213m shared-profit in in 1QFY23 mainly dragged down by disappointed performance from U-city (35% stake)</li>
</ul>


We expect core earnings recovery in 2HFY23 (Oct’22-Mar’23) to come at slower pace than we previously expected given;1.)heavy marketing and set-up costs needed to be allocate for digital and financial 
2QFY23 (July-Sept’22) core profit fell to four-quarter low The company reported 2QFY23 net profit at Bt474m. Excluding extra items, core earnings should be at Bt336m,(+6%YoY-45%QoQ),which is lower than market estimate.
QoQ contraction was due to equity income that turned to loss worth Bt116m compared with Bt213m shared-profit in in 1QFY23 mainly dragged down by disappointed performance from U-city (35% stake)


BTS : ’Core Earnings Should Recover Gradually in 2HFY23

<ul>
<li>We have a slight positive view on the company’s new investment in Thanulux PCL (TNL)as it expected to expand loan portfolio and strengthening synergy among business entities under financial service</li>
<li>Bonding with leading consumer products conglomerate ‘SPI’ The company announced to acquire newly issued ordinary shares under private placement of TNL,the ready-made clothes and leather ware manufacturers and the subsidiary</li>
<li>After the transaction complete by end of 2022, TNL will invest in the secured lending business (land as a collateral) called ‘Oxygen’ worth around Bt4.3bn (90% stake). Currently</li>
</ul>


We have a slight positive view on the company’s new investment in Thanulux PCL (TNL)as it expected to expand loan portfolio and strengthening synergy among business entities under financial service
Bonding with leading consumer products conglomerate ‘SPI’ The company announced to acquire newly issued ordinary shares under private placement of TNL,the ready-made clothes and leather ware manufacturers and the subsidiary
After the transaction complete by end of 2022, TNL will invest in the secured lending business (land as a collateral) called ‘Oxygen’ worth around Bt4.3bn (90% stake). Currently


BTS : Expect Long-Term Synergy with SPI PCL

<ul>
<li>We cut BTS target price to Bt10.20 (Previous TP:Bt11.0)after we trim target price of VGI (52% stake) to Bt4.60 as we factor in weaker-than-expected recovery in ad revenue and damage </li>
<li>1QFY23 (April-June’22) fell to three-quarter low The company reported 1QFY23 net profit at Bt536m. Excluding extra items, core earnings would be at Bt610m, (-49%YoY -28%QoQ).</li>
<li>A QoQ and YoY contraction pressured by revenue that drop to 16-quarter low at Bt4.0bn dragged down by construction revenue to Bt1.1bn (-80%YoY -30%QoQ) amid nearly completion of MRT pink </li>
</ul>


We cut BTS target price to Bt10.20 (Previous TP:Bt11.0)after we trim target price of VGI (52% stake) to Bt4.60 as we factor in weaker-than-expected recovery in ad revenue and damage 
1QFY23 (April-June’22) fell to three-quarter low The company reported 1QFY23 net profit at Bt536m. Excluding extra items, core earnings would be at Bt610m, (-49%YoY -28%QoQ).
A QoQ and YoY contraction pressured by revenue that drop to 16-quarter low at Bt4.0bn dragged down by construction revenue to Bt1.1bn (-80%YoY -30%QoQ) amid nearly completion of MRT pink 


BTS : Concern over Concession Extension Remain an Overhang on Stock

Bangkok Expressway and Metro / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Q2 22 result was healthy derived from both increase in ridership as well as ASP in both expressway and rail. </li>
<li>Cost increase but not as high as revenue increase therefore margin expanded while net profit went up 3x YoY. 2H 2022 will be even better. </li>
<li>Compared to AOT, BEM's PBR is 63% cheaper while its share price still underperformed AOT this year by 11%. </li>
</ul>


Q2 22 result was healthy derived from both increase in ridership as well as ASP in both expressway and rail. 
Cost increase but not as high as revenue increase therefore margin expanded while net profit went up 3x YoY. 2H 2022 will be even better. 
Compared to AOT, BEM's PBR is 63% cheaper while its share price still underperformed AOT this year by 11%. 


Bangkok Express and Metro (BEM): Marching On

Thailand

BTS Group Holdings Public Company Limited is a Thai multi-industry conglomerate with core businesses in mass transit, media, property development, and services. It operates the BTS Skytrain and Bus Rapid Transit systems in Bangkok, offers comprehensive offline-to-online marketing solutions, and invests in various synergistic ventures, including hotels and real estate. The company was founded in Bangkok, Thailand, in 1968.

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BTS Group (BTS TB)

Minor International (MINT): The Best Stock for Thai Tourism Recovery?

Minor is wrongly dubbed as the best stock for Thai tourism recovery and there are others with higher exposure to tourism in Thailand. Minor has...

Henry Soediarko

BTS : ’Core Earnings Should Recover Gradually in 2HFY23

We expect core earnings recovery in 2HFY23 (Oct’22-Mar’23) to come at slower pace than we previously expected given; 1.) heavy marketing and set-up...

Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

BTS : Expect Long-Term Synergy with SPI PCL

We have a slight positive view on the company’s new investment in Thanulux PCL (TNL) as it expected to expand loan portfolio and strengthening...

Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

BTS : Concern over Concession Extension Remain an Overhang on Stock

We cut BTS target price to Bt10.20 (Previous TP: Bt11.0) after we trim target price of VGI (52% stake) to Bt4.60 as we factor in weaker-than...

Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

Bangkok Express and Metro (BEM): Marching On

The early sign of recovery is there and BEM has proven that it participates and does not lag behind the improvement in the ridership recovery as...

Henry Soediarko

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