Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>With the review period complete, we take a look at the potential index changes at the June rebalance as well as potential index inclusions due to M&amp;A.</li>
<li>Timing is key for the ad hoc inclusions to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX)</a> with an ad hoc inclusion being announced prior to the regular announcement.</li>
<li>Passive trackers will need to buy 1.3-27x ADV on the expected adds and have 0.8-4.7x ADV to sell on the expected deletes. Shorts have built up on the potential deletes.</li>
</ul>


With the review period complete, we take a look at the potential index changes at the June rebalance as well as potential index inclusions due to M&amp;A.
Timing is key for the ad hoc inclusions to the S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) with an ad hoc inclusion being announced prior to the regular announcement.
Passive trackers will need to buy 1.3-27x ADV on the expected adds and have 0.8-4.7x ADV to sell on the expected deletes. Shorts have built up on the potential deletes.


S&P/​​​​​​​​​ASX Index Rebalance Preview: Regular & Ad Hoc Changes in June

Index Rebal Trades & Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Index Rebal Trades & Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

<ul>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes for ASX 200, 100, 50, and 20 in the run-up to the June 2024 index rebal event.</li>
<li>We expect one ASX 20 change and two ASX 100 changes during the regular rebalance event.</li>
<li>For the ASX 200 index, there could be two intra-review changes in the month of June 2024 and one of those names could be a surprise.</li>
</ul>


In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes for ASX 200, 100, 50, and 20 in the run-up to the June 2024 index rebal event.
We expect one ASX 20 change and two ASX 100 changes during the regular rebalance event.
For the ASX 200 index, there could be two intra-review changes in the month of June 2024 and one of those names could be a surprise.


Quiddity Leaderboard ASX Jun 24: Intra-Review Replacement Surprise Possible

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>KKR's Offer for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alps-logistics-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3935:1" rel="noopener">Alps Logistics (9055 JP)</a> is a knock-out price. HUGE MINORITY WIN. This trades a little wide because the "gap risk" is so large, but it's still safe.</li>
<li>It's reasonable to expect the listing of various components of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/l-occitane-international-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6772:1" rel="noopener">L'Occitane (973 HK)</a> other than in HK, would (should) be hugely accretive; for those investors who can (or may) participate.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hankook-tire-technology" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20031:1" rel="noopener">Hankook Tire &amp; Technology (161390 KS)</a> seeks a controlling stake in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hanon-systems" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11506:1" rel="noopener">Hanon Systems (018880 KS)</a>.</li>
</ul>


KKR's Offer for Alps Logistics (9055 JP) is a knock-out price. HUGE MINORITY WIN. This trades a little wide because the "gap risk" is so large, but it's still safe.
It's reasonable to expect the listing of various components of L'Occitane (973 HK) other than in HK, would (should) be hugely accretive; for those investors who can (or may) participate.

Hankook Tire &amp; Technology (161390 KS) seeks a controlling stake in Hanon Systems (018880 KS).


Last Week in Event SPACE: Alps Logistics, L'Occitane, Hanon Systems, Perpetual Ltd

Travis Lundy

<ul>
<li>In early December, pharmacy distributor <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sigma-healthcare-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15966:1" rel="noopener">Sigma Healthcare (SIG AU)</a> arranged a "transformational merger" with mega chain Chemist Warehouse (CWG). Effectively a reverse takeover designed to get CWG listed.</li>
<li>SIG issued shares, raising cash, enabling it so NEWCO had high enough minimum float upon merging. Financial engineering for the win. SIG popped - a kind of IPO premium trade.</li>
<li>But plenty of people are against the deal, and ACCC hasn't yet opined (13 June is the provisional date), but on Thursday, S&amp;P announced SIG would join ASX200 despite risks.</li>
</ul>


In early December, pharmacy distributor Sigma Healthcare (SIG AU) arranged a "transformational merger" with mega chain Chemist Warehouse (CWG). Effectively a reverse takeover designed to get CWG listed.
SIG issued shares, raising cash, enabling it so NEWCO had high enough minimum float upon merging. Financial engineering for the win. SIG popped - a kind of IPO premium trade.
But plenty of people are against the deal, and ACCC hasn't yet opined (13 June is the provisional date), but on Thursday, S&amp;P announced SIG would join ASX200 despite risks.


Sigma Healthcare (SIG AU): ASX200 Inclusion Now, MUCH More Squeezy Fun Later. Maybe...

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/seven-group-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:803:1" rel="noopener">Seven Group Holdings (SVW AU)</a> now holds 85.8% of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/boral-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1487:1" rel="noopener">Boral Ltd (BLD AU)</a> and that will lead to deletion of Boral from the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX)</a>. </li>
<li>As expected, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sigma-healthcare-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15966:1" rel="noopener">Sigma Healthcare (SIG AU)</a> will be added to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX)</a> at the close on 9 May.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sigma-healthcare-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15966:1" rel="noopener">Sigma Healthcare (SIG AU)</a> price movements will be largely influenced by its pending merger with Chemist Warehouse Group (CWG).</li>
</ul>



Seven Group Holdings (SVW AU) now holds 85.8% of Boral Ltd (BLD AU) and that will lead to deletion of Boral from the S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX). 
As expected, Sigma Healthcare (SIG AU) will be added to the S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) at the close on 9 May.

Sigma Healthcare (SIG AU) price movements will be largely influenced by its pending merger with Chemist Warehouse Group (CWG).


ASX200 Index Adhoc Rebalance: Sigma Healthcare (SIG) Replaces Boral (BLD)

Australia

Sigma Healthcare Limited wholesales and distributes pharmaceutical products. The Company offers prescription, over-the-counter, and generic drugs. Sigma Healthcare serves customers in Australia.

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Sigma Healthcare (SIG AU)

S&P/ASX Index Rebalance Preview: Regular & Ad Hoc Changes in June

There should be changes for the ASX20, ASX100, ASX200 in June. Timing of the ASX200 inclusions is key with 2 M&A events leading to ad hoc...

Brian Freitas

Quiddity Leaderboard ASX Jun 24: Intra-Review Replacement Surprise Possible

There is an important correction to the expectations presented in this insight. Please see the discussion point below for the details and the...

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Last Week in Event SPACE: Alps Logistics, L'Occitane, Hanon Systems, Perpetual Ltd

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett