'Quantamental' Japan Specialist, LightStream Research

Campbell Gunn

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist

ja research

ja research is an independent research platform focused exclusively on Japanese equities. Leveraging data and graphic analysis provided by Japan Analytics, we provide insights on small and medium-sized companies that have been ignored by the sell-side as well as challenging conventional wisdom on larger companies. We also offer analyst and corporate access, the latter with translation if required. 

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/116/740/original/2020-02-07_03-39-22.png?1581019080" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="116740"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div><p><strong>INTO THE 'RED'</strong> - As predicted, our Results Score dipped into negative territory yesterday, declining by 56 basis points to -0.21. Of the 65 large-cap results, only ten companies had positive qoq changes in Results Score, while seventeen saw double-digit declines. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toyota-motor-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:73:1" rel="noopener">Toyota Motor (7203 JP)</a> did well to limit its quarterly year-on-year changes in Revenue and OP to -3%, and they are forecasting similar declines against TTM numbers for the full year. The Forecast/Revision Score added six basis points driven primarily by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shiseido-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5718:1" rel="noopener">Shiseido (4911 JP)</a> overly optimistic initial forecast for FY2020. 'Mr Market' meanwhile is content to bid up share prices to close to the recent highs, and 8% below the January 2018 peak, when the Results Score was 7.54. </p><hr><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>• SECTOR TIMELINE •</strong></p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/116/741/original/2020-02-07_03-45-05.png?1581019946" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="116741"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div><p><strong>SECTOR TIMELINE</strong> - The majority of Sectors saw lower Results &amp; Revision Scores yesterday, with <strong>Food, Beverages &amp; Tobacco</strong> being the exception due to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/japan-tobacco-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13498:1" rel="noopener">Japan Tobacco (2914 JP)</a>'s stable topline performance and better-than-expected 2020 forecast. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mitsubishi-heavy-industries" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13613:1" rel="noopener">Mitsubishi Heavy Industries (7011 JP)</a> decline into the red at the OP level and full-year downward revision took the <strong>Machinery</strong> Sector lower, while <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/seibu-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:458:1" rel="noopener">Seibu (9024 JP)</a> was the negative driver for <strong>Multi-Industry</strong>. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/terumo-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6708:1" rel="noopener">Terumo (4543 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/olympus-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:356:1" rel="noopener">Olympus (7733 JP)</a> fuelled the decline in <strong>Healthcare</strong> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fujifilm-holdings-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16353:1" rel="noopener">Fujifilm (4901 JP)</a> did the same for <strong>Technology Hardware</strong>. </p>

Source • Japan AnalyticsINTO THE 'RED' - As predicted, our Results Score dipped into negative territory yesterday, declining by 56 basis points to -0.21. Of the 65 large-cap results, only ten companies had positive qoq changes in Results Score, while seventeen saw double-digit declines. Toyota Motor (7203 JP) did well to limit its quarterly year-on-year changes in Revenue and OP to -3%, and they are forecasting similar declines against TTM numbers for the full year. The Forecast/Revision Score added six basis points driven primarily by Shiseido (4911 JP) overly optimistic initial forecast for FY2020. 'Mr Market' meanwhile is content to bid up share prices to close to the recent highs, and 8% below the January 2018 peak, when the Results Score was 7.54. • SECTOR TIMELINE •Source • Japan AnalyticsSECTOR TIMELINE - The majority of Sectors saw lower Results &amp; Revision Scores yesterday, with Food, Beverages &amp; Tobacco being the exception due to Japan Tobacco (2914 JP)'s stable topline performance and better-than-expected 2020 forecast. Mitsubishi Heavy Industries (7011 JP) decline into the red at the OP level and full-year downward revision took the Machinery Sector lower, while Seibu (9024 JP) was the negative driver for Multi-Industry. Terumo (4543 JP) and Olympus (7733 JP) fuelled the decline in Healthcare and Fujifilm (4901 JP) did the same for Technology Hardware. 

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions Daily Roundup - 6th February ▲ 2914 4911 6406 ▼ 9024 4901 7951

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<p>Despite several indexes recently touching new 52+ week highs, broad global indexes (MSCI ACWI, ACWI ex-US, EAFE, and EM) remain near logical resistance, and indicators continue to send mixed signals. As a result we are hesitant to get too bullish or bearish. Instead we want to focus on Sector/Group/industry themes where we bottoming price and RS, or attractive pullback opportunities within established price and RS uptrends.  In this report we highlight such opportunities, within the Technology, Consumer Staples and Services Sectors.</p>

Despite several indexes recently touching new 52+ week highs, broad global indexes (MSCI ACWI, ACWI ex-US, EAFE, and EM) remain near logical resistance, and indicators continue to send mixed signals. As a result we are hesitant to get too bullish or bearish. Instead we want to focus on Sector/Group/industry themes where we bottoming price and RS, or attractive pullback opportunities within established price and RS uptrends.  In this report we highlight such opportunities, within the Technology, Consumer Staples and Services Sectors.

Global Equity Strategy: Not Too Bullish, Not Too Bearish

TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX / Technical Analysis

<p>The current pullback within Japan’s TOPIX and Nikkei 225 indexes is offering an opportunity to add exposure to attractive constituents.<em> </em>Consumer electronics manufacturers are particularly attractive. Today we direct your attention to four stocks with the best setups in the group: Sony (6758-JP), Nintendo (7974-JP), FUJIFILM (4901-JP), and Zenrin (9474-JP). Add exposure.</p>

The current pullback within Japan’s TOPIX and Nikkei 225 indexes is offering an opportunity to add exposure to attractive constituents. Consumer electronics manufacturers are particularly attractive. Today we direct your attention to four stocks with the best setups in the group: Sony (6758-JP), Nintendo (7974-JP), FUJIFILM (4901-JP), and Zenrin (9474-JP). Add exposure.

Amid the Turmoil, Buy Opportunities in Japan: Sony, Nintendo, FUJIFILM, Zenrin

Chief Investment Officer, KIS Capital Partners

Josh Best

Chief Investment Officer

Boutique absolute return fund manager

KIS Capital Partners

KIS Capital Partners is a boutique absolute return fund manager based in Sydney, Australia with an Asia ex Japan trading focus. We believe that an absolute return fund should be risk and performance focused with strong attention to investment differentiation. Absolute return funds should not be asset gatherers. We invest alongside our clients in liquid and transparent markets with a focus on pragmatic and vigilant risk management.

<p>At KIS capital we try to keep ourselves at the forefront of technology and innovation, attempting to identify which industries may blossom, and which may be disrupted. In the middle of 2016, KIS Research published its in-depth report on Autonomous Vehicles. That paper proved to be well ahead of the curve, with autonomous cars and electric vehicles becoming an important investment theme over the last year. To follow up the success of that report, we have released this one, focusing on a new topic: human longevity. We see human longevity as a huge new investment theme. Whilst its impact on the healthcare system alone will be enormous, we expect its ripples to extend further, washing into the broader economy. Human longevity will create a more productive working age population, extend the retirement age, create new consumer spending patterns amongst the elderly, cause a revamp of the superannuation system, increase unfunded pension liabilities, change life and health insurance premiums, and even alter the way in which fiscal policy is managed, to name a few. In this report we will explore the burgeoning technologies that are seeking to extend healthy life well north of 100 years (NB: there is a section on life hacks that you can be doing today to increase your longevity). If this investment theme is of further interest to you, get in touch with us!</p>

At KIS capital we try to keep ourselves at the forefront of technology and innovation, attempting to identify which industries may blossom, and which may be disrupted. In the middle of 2016, KIS Research published its in-depth report on Autonomous Vehicles. That paper proved to be well ahead of the curve, with autonomous cars and electric vehicles becoming an important investment theme over the last year. To follow up the success of that report, we have released this one, focusing on a new topic: human longevity. We see human longevity as a huge new investment theme. Whilst its impact on the healthcare system alone will be enormous, we expect its ripples to extend further, washing into the broader economy. Human longevity will create a more productive working age population, extend the retirement age, create new consumer spending patterns amongst the elderly, cause a revamp of the superannuation system, increase unfunded pension liabilities, change life and health insurance premiums, and even alter the way in which fiscal policy is managed, to name a few. In this report we will explore the burgeoning technologies that are seeking to extend healthy life well north of 100 years (NB: there is a section on life hacks that you can be doing today to increase your longevity). If this investment theme is of further interest to you, get in touch with us!

Doing bespoke work since 2002....., Custom Products Group

Patrick Hansen

Doing bespoke work since 2002.....

Custom Products Group

Custom Products was started 14 years ago at Lehman Brothers by current co-founder Patrick Hansen, CFA. After 3 years at Lehman, Patrick moved the team to Macquarie Securities where Simon Rigney (co-founder) joined. 3 years ago we took Custom Products independent. 

Our core strength can be summed up three words. 1- Customization - we have very little off the shelf products and most work is done on a one on one bespoke basis. 2- Speed - We pride ourselves in our ability to get requests back to the client very quickly. 3- Confidentiality - We do not redistribute. There is no grace period where we wait a week and then mass blast. Any request stops with that client.

<p>With only 2 weeks left in August, we wanted to highlight names that you should be looking at heading into the next couple of months to the end of the year. We screened for names that 1- have a success rate since 2000 greater than 70%. 2- median return relative to TOPIX is greater than 5.5%.</p><h2>Screen Results</h2><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/031/654/original/2.png?1502826967" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="31654"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source: Custom Products</div><p>Both <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/12795" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12795:1">Yokogawa Electric Corp (6841 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/14085" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14085:1">Sapporo Holdings Ltd (2501 JP)</a> have been up 88% of the time. That means in the 17 years they have only been down twice relative to…</p>

With only 2 weeks left in August, we wanted to highlight names that you should be looking at heading into the next couple of months to the end of the year. We screened for names that 1- have a success rate since 2000 greater than 70%. 2- median return relative to TOPIX is greater than 5.5%.Screen ResultsSource: Custom ProductsBoth Yokogawa Electric Corp (6841 JP) and Sapporo Holdings Ltd (2501 JP) have been up 88% of the time. That means in the 17 years they have only been down twice relative to…

Which Names Do the Best from September to the End of the Year....

Japan

FUJIFILM Holdings Corporation develops, sells and services Imaging, Information, and Document Solutions.  Its products include color films, digital cameras, photofinishing products and equipment.  The Group also manufactures medical and graphic art use equipment and materials, FPD materials, and optical devices, and provides services on office copy machines, printers, and related equipment.

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FUJIFILM Holdings (4901 JP)

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions Daily Roundup - 6th February ▲ 2914 4911 6406 ▼ 9024 4901 7951

INTO THE 'RED' - As predicted, our Results Score dipped into negative territory yesterday, declining by 56 basis points to -0.21. Of the 65...

Campbell Gunn

Global Equity Strategy: Not Too Bullish, Not Too Bearish

Despite several indexes recently touching new 52+ week highs, broad global indexes (MSCI ACWI, ACWI ex-US, EAFE, and EM) remain near logical...

Vermilion Research

Amid the Turmoil, Buy Opportunities in Japan: Sony, Nintendo, FUJIFILM, Zenrin

The current pullback within Japan’s TOPIX and Nikkei 225 indexes is offering an opportunity to add exposure to attractive constituents. Consumer...

Vermilion Research

Human Longevity

At KIS capital we try to keep ourselves at the forefront of technology and innovation, attempting to identify which industries may blossom, and...

KIS Capital Partners

Which Names Do the Best from September to the End of the Year....

With only 2 weeks left in August, we wanted to highlight names that you should be looking at heading into the next couple of months to the end of...

Custom Products Group

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