Consumer Analyst / Channel Surveillance Specialist, Trudence Capital Advisors

Pranav Bhavsar

Consumer Analyst / Channel Surveillance Specialist

Trudence Capital Advisors

Trudence Capital Advisors Private Limited is a SEBI-registered Research Analyst, holding SEBI registration number INH000015747. Our firm is dedicated to providing independent and unbiased research on Indian mid to large-cap companies. Trudence Capital is known for its counter-consensus views, with a focus on forensic research and on-ground primary investigations. Our research approach is thorough, involving detailed analysis of accounting practices and governance, alongside extensive channel checks.

Independent & Unbiased Research

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>With the "Postcard" series, our objective is to bring to our readers on-ground insights based on interactions across key channels located in tier 2 and tier 3 locations.</li>
<li>Uttar Pradesh (UP) is crucial in Indian politics with the most Lok Sabha seats and has a diverse economy focused on agriculture, services, and manufacturing.</li>
<li>We are trying to be optimists, but it's hard to ignore the ground realities, especially when compared to a much less developed and smaller nation like Nepal. </li>
</ul>


With the "Postcard" series, our objective is to bring to our readers on-ground insights based on interactions across key channels located in tier 2 and tier 3 locations.
Uttar Pradesh (UP) is crucial in Indian politics with the most Lok Sabha seats and has a diverse economy focused on agriculture, services, and manufacturing.
We are trying to be optimists, but it's hard to ignore the ground realities, especially when compared to a much less developed and smaller nation like Nepal. 


Postcard from Uttar Pradesh | Addressing the Core

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>There are 13 changes for the Nifty200 Momentum 30 Index that will be implemented at the close on 27 June.</li>
<li>Estimated one-way turnover is 42.3% resulting in a one-way trade of INR 32bn (US$384m). There are 13 stocks with over 0.5x ADV to trade, mostly on the deletes.</li>
<li>After steady outperformance over the last few months, there was a selloff in momentum names following the announcement of the election results. There has been a recovery since then.</li>
</ul>


There are 13 changes for the Nifty200 Momentum 30 Index that will be implemented at the close on 27 June.
Estimated one-way turnover is 42.3% resulting in a one-way trade of INR 32bn (US$384m). There are 13 stocks with over 0.5x ADV to trade, mostly on the deletes.
After steady outperformance over the last few months, there was a selloff in momentum names following the announcement of the election results. There has been a recovery since then.


NIFTY200 Momentum30 Index Rebalance: 13 Changes, 42% Turnover, Momentum Recovers After Selloff

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), HDFC Securities

HDFC Securities

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

HDFC securities is the best online trading platform for stocks, IPOs, mutual fund in India. 

Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

<ul><li>Q4FY24 earnings season saw an overall healthy performance, with wide divergences across sectors and companies</li><li>Aggregate revenue/PAT grew by 6%/22% YoY and 4%/13% QoQ across the HSIE coverage (~226 stocks)</li><li>Further, the 5-year CAGR for annual revenue/PAT between FY19 to FY24 was 11%/17%</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Q4FY24 earnings season saw an overall healthy performance, with wide divergences across sectors and companiesAggregate revenue/PAT grew by 6%/22% YoY and 4%/13% QoQ across the HSIE coverage (~226 stocks)Further, the 5-year CAGR for annual revenue/PAT between FY19 to FY24 was 11%/17%Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Quarterly Flipbook: Strong End to FY24, a Muted FY25 on the Cards

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Axis Direct

Axis Direct

Axis Direct is the flagship brand under Axis Securities Limited, a subsidiary of Axis Bank in India. 

Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

<ul><li>On 4th June 2024, three election results were due 1) Loksabha election 2024, 2) State election results of Andra pradesh, and 3) State election results of Odisha.</li><li>In all three elections, including the central as well as state, the ruling party NDA has won the mandate and will easily be able to form the government.</li><li>However, at the central level, it fell short of market expectations. As per the latest number, NDA won 292 seats which is well behind the exit poll numbers but still above the minimum mark of 272 (The minimum number to form the government).</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

On 4th June 2024, three election results were due 1) Loksabha election 2024, 2) State election results of Andra pradesh, and 3) State election results of Odisha.In all three elections, including the central as well as state, the ruling party NDA has won the mandate and will easily be able to form the government.However, at the central level, it fell short of market expectations. As per the latest number, NDA won 292 seats which is well behind the exit poll numbers but still above the minimum mark of 272 (The minimum number to form the government).Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Equity Investment Strategy: Post Lok Sabha Election 2024

<ul><li>May’24 Wholesale Volumes: The domestic PV sales (Exhibit-2) grew by 6%/4%YoY/MoM, largely led by strong domestic SUV volumes across Original Equipment Manufacturers (OEMs) , which were partly offset by weakness in entry-level cars and exports (in Maruti).</li><li>The domestic 2W industry after witnessing strong double digit growth on a low base, witnessed volume growth of ~10% YoY (down 8% MoM) and export volume grew 12% YoY (down 7% MoM) respectively.</li><li>The domestic CV industry sales grew by ~3% YoY (flat MoM), driven by high volumes in the bus segment. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

May’24 Wholesale Volumes: The domestic PV sales (Exhibit-2) grew by 6%/4%YoY/MoM, largely led by strong domestic SUV volumes across Original Equipment Manufacturers (OEMs) , which were partly offset by weakness in entry-level cars and exports (in Maruti).The domestic 2W industry after witnessing strong double digit growth on a low base, witnessed volume growth of ~10% YoY (down 8% MoM) and export volume grew 12% YoY (down 7% MoM) respectively.The domestic CV industry sales grew by ~3% YoY (flat MoM), driven by high volumes in the bus segment. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

India

Mahindra & Mahindra Ltd. manufactures automobiles, farm equipment and automotive components. The Company's automobile products include light, medium and heavy commercial vehicles, jeep type vehicles and passenger cars. Mahindra & Mahindra also manufactures agricultural tractors, agricultural implements, internal combustion engines, industrial petrol engines, spare parts and machine tools.

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Mahindra & Mahindra (MM IN)

Postcard from Uttar Pradesh | Addressing the Core

"Exploring the political and economic landscape of Uttar Pradesh through on-ground interactions in tier 2 and 3 locations, highlighting the...

Pranav Bhavsar

NIFTY200 Momentum30 Index Rebalance: 13 Changes, 42% Turnover, Momentum Recovers After Selloff

There are 13 changes for the Nifty200 Momentum 30 Index. Estimated one-way turnover is 42.3% resulting in a one-way trade of INR 32bn. The adds...

Brian Freitas

Quarterly Flipbook: Strong End to FY24, a Muted FY25 on the Cards

Q4FY24 earnings season saw an overall healthy performance, with wide divergences across sectors and companies. Aggregate revenue/PAT grew by 6%/22%...

HDFC Securities

Equity Investment Strategy: Post Lok Sabha Election 2024

On 4th June 2024, three election results were due 1) Loksabha election 2024, 2) State election results of Andra pradesh, and 3) State election...

Axis Direct

Auto Monthly Volume - May 2024

The domestic 2W industry after witnessing strong double digit growth on a low base, witnessed volume growth of ~10% YoY (down 8% MoM) and export...

Axis Direct

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Postcard from Uttar Pradesh | Addressing the Core

​"Exploring the political and economic landscape of Uttar Pradesh through on-ground interactions in tier 2 and 3 locations, highlighting the...

Pranav Bhavsar

NIFTY200 Momentum30 Index Rebalance: 13 Changes, 42% Turnover, Momentum Recovers After Selloff

There are 13 changes for the Nifty200 Momentum 30 Index. Estimated one-way turnover is 42.3% resulting in a one-way trade of INR 32bn. The adds...

Brian Freitas

Quarterly Flipbook: Strong End to FY24, a Muted FY25 on the Cards

Q4FY24 earnings season saw an overall healthy performance, with wide divergences across sectors and companies. Aggregate revenue/PAT grew by 6%/22%...

HDFC Securities

Equity Investment Strategy: Post Lok Sabha Election 2024

On 4th June 2024, three election results were due 1) Loksabha election 2024, 2) State election results of Andra pradesh, and 3) State election...

Axis Direct

Auto Monthly Volume - May 2024

The domestic 2W industry after witnessing strong double digit growth on a low base, witnessed volume growth of ~10% YoY (down 8% MoM) and export...

Axis Direct

"Exploring the political and economic landscape of Uttar Pradesh through on-ground interactions in tier 2 and 3 locations, highlighting the...