External broker reports(aggregated public sources), HDFC Securities

HDFC Securities

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

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Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>NHAI’s FY24 awarding activity is muted, expect pick-up from H2FY25: With minimal awarding activity in Q4FY24, the overall FY24 awarding activity remained muted</li><li>FY24 was a truncated year for ordering with ~INR 330bn worth of project awards (vs average INR 1.2trn for the previous year)</li><li>NHAI is re-modelling the award mix towards BOT toll with INR 2trn worth of projects being envisaged to be bid out under this model, which seems to be a tall ask</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

NHAI’s FY24 awarding activity is muted, expect pick-up from H2FY25: With minimal awarding activity in Q4FY24, the overall FY24 awarding activity remained mutedFY24 was a truncated year for ordering with ~INR 330bn worth of project awards (vs average INR 1.2trn for the previous year)NHAI is re-modelling the award mix towards BOT toll with INR 2trn worth of projects being envisaged to be bid out under this model, which seems to be a tall askContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Industrials (Q4FY24 Results Preview): Strong Ordering Ex-Roads

Global Healthcare Analyst

Tina Banerjee

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>In Q3FY24, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/larsen-toubro-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2499:1" rel="noopener">Larsen &amp; Toubro (LT IN)</a> witnessed order inflow of INR 760bn (up 25% YoY) bolstering the order book to INR 4.7tn at the end of December 2023.</li>
<li>Margins continued to remain under pressure in 9MFY24 due to cost pressures in legacy jobs.</li>
<li>Strong project execution and healthy order book are expected to drive future growth with margins reviving after bottoming out.</li>
</ul>


In Q3FY24, Larsen &amp; Toubro (LT IN) witnessed order inflow of INR 760bn (up 25% YoY) bolstering the order book to INR 4.7tn at the end of December 2023.
Margins continued to remain under pressure in 9MFY24 due to cost pressures in legacy jobs.
Strong project execution and healthy order book are expected to drive future growth with margins reviving after bottoming out.


Larsen & Toubro (LT IN): Order Book Remains Robust Amidst Margin Concerns

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Since early November 2023 we have been expecting global equities (MSCI ACWI) to stage a year-end rally that would continue into the early part of 2024.</li>
<li>As we progress through the “early part” of 2024, more global indexes and Sectors are breaking out and starting to participate in the upside. This is classic bull market behavior.</li>
<li>Our outlook remains bullish; continue to ride this trend higher, and treat pullbacks as buying opportunities. Actionable Themes: Hong Kong/China, Consumer Discretionary, Industrials, Energy/Coal, and Polish Banks</li>
</ul>


Since early November 2023 we have been expecting global equities (MSCI ACWI) to stage a year-end rally that would continue into the early part of 2024.
As we progress through the “early part” of 2024, more global indexes and Sectors are breaking out and starting to participate in the upside. This is classic bull market behavior.
Our outlook remains bullish; continue to ride this trend higher, and treat pullbacks as buying opportunities. Actionable Themes: Hong Kong/China, Consumer Discretionary, Industrials, Energy/Coal, and Polish Banks


Hong Kong/China Finally Bottoming?; Bullish Outlook Intact; DXY Rolling Over; Buys in Discretionary

<ul><li>Siemens: Siemens India Ltd (SIL) delivered muted standalone Q1FY24 revenue/EBITDA/APAT of INR 44.4/5.2/4.6bn, missing our estimates by 5.9/5.5/1.8%</li><li>EBITDA margin was 11.8%(-327bps/+6bps YoY/QoQ) vs our estimate of 11.7%</li><li>SIL received new orders worth INR 59.7bn (+9.6/+32.7% YoY/QoQ), which are the highest-ever base business orders the company has won</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Siemens: Siemens India Ltd (SIL) delivered muted standalone Q1FY24 revenue/EBITDA/APAT of INR 44.4/5.2/4.6bn, missing our estimates by 5.9/5.5/1.8%EBITDA margin was 11.8%(-327bps/+6bps YoY/QoQ) vs our estimate of 11.7%SIL received new orders worth INR 59.7bn (+9.6/+32.7% YoY/QoQ), which are the highest-ever base business orders the company has wonContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

HSIE Results Daily: Siemens, Eicher Motors, Infoedge, Phoenix Mills

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>There are 18 changes for the Nifty200 Momentum 30 Index that will be implemented at the close on 28 December. We had forecast all the index changes.</li>
<li>Estimated one-way turnover is 57.7% resulting in a one-way trade of INR 21.75bn (US$261m). 8 stocks have over 1x ADV to trade; 21 stocks have atleast 0.5x ADV to trade.</li>
<li>The adds have continued to outperform the deletes and the index and there could be further outperformance heading into year-end and buying from passive trackers.</li>
</ul>


There are 18 changes for the Nifty200 Momentum 30 Index that will be implemented at the close on 28 December. We had forecast all the index changes.
Estimated one-way turnover is 57.7% resulting in a one-way trade of INR 21.75bn (US$261m). 8 stocks have over 1x ADV to trade; 21 stocks have atleast 0.5x ADV to trade.
The adds have continued to outperform the deletes and the index and there could be further outperformance heading into year-end and buying from passive trackers.


NIFTY200 Momentum30 Index Rebalance: 18 Changes a Side, 58% Turnover, Momentum Intact

India

Siemens Ltd. has its operations in various areas: in the transportation sector it delivers high speed trains, in the lighting sector it manufactures small light bulbs. In the healthcare sector Siemens executes complete solutions for hospitals, for the industry sector it builds airports as well as produces contracts & for the communication segment it provides public network to mobiles.

Siemens Ltd (SIEM IN)

Industrials (Q4FY24 Results Preview): Strong Ordering Ex-Roads

NHAI’s FY24 awarding activity is muted, expect pick-up from H2FY25: With minimal awarding activity in Q4FY24, the overall FY24 awarding activity...

HDFC Securities

Larsen & Toubro (LT IN): Order Book Remains Robust Amidst Margin Concerns

LT reported strong order inflow in Q3FY24, but margins remained under pressure. Strong execution and healthy order book are expected to drive...

Tina Banerjee

Hong Kong/China Finally Bottoming?; Bullish Outlook Intact; DXY Rolling Over; Buys in Discretionary

Hong Kong/China Finally Bottoming?; Bullish Overall Outlook Intact; $DXY Rolling Over; Actionable Themes: Hong Kong/China, Consumer Discretionary,...

Vermilion Research

HSIE Results Daily: Siemens, Eicher Motors, Infoedge, Phoenix Mills

Siemens: Siemens India Ltd (SIL) delivered muted standalone Q1FY24 revenue/EBITDA/APAT of INR 44.4/5.2/4.6bn, missing our estimates by 5.9/5.5/1.8%

HDFC Securities

NIFTY200 Momentum30 Index Rebalance: 18 Changes a Side, 58% Turnover, Momentum Intact

The adds and deletes have performed in line since announcement of the changes a little over a week ago. With 10 trading days to implementation,...

Brian Freitas