IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

Shinko Electric Industries / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>We summarise the latest spreads and newsflow of merger arb situations we cover across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Chinese ADRs.</li>
<li>Highest spreads: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yichang-hec-changjiang-pharmaceutical" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21040:1" rel="noopener">Yichang HEC Changjiang Pharma (1558 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/canvest-environmental-protection-group-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:100:1" rel="noopener">Canvest Environmental Protection Group (1381 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shinko-electric-industries" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15066:1" rel="noopener">Shinko Electric Industries (6967 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/malaysia-airports-holdings-bhd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:117:1" rel="noopener">Malaysia Airports Holdings (MAHB MK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/greatview-aseptic-packaging" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10802:1" rel="noopener">Greatview Aseptic Packaging (468 HK)</a>. 
</li>
<li>Lowest spreads: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fuji-soft-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17504:1" rel="noopener">Fuji Soft Inc (9749 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tohokushinsha-film-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15129:1" rel="noopener">Tohokushinsha Film (2329 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/second-chance-properties-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20342:1" rel="noopener">Second Chance Properties (SCE SP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fancl-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15862:1" rel="noopener">Fancl Corp (4921 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/descente-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8225:1" rel="noopener">Descente Ltd (8114 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/c-i-takiron-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18675:1" rel="noopener">C.I. TAKIRON Corporation (4215 JP)</a>. 
</li>
</ul>


We summarise the latest spreads and newsflow of merger arb situations we cover across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Chinese ADRs.
Highest spreads: Yichang HEC Changjiang Pharma (1558 HK), Canvest Environmental Protection Group (1381 HK), Shinko Electric Industries (6967 JP), Malaysia Airports Holdings (MAHB MK), Greatview Aseptic Packaging (468 HK). 

Lowest spreads: Fuji Soft Inc (9749 JP), Tohokushinsha Film (2329 JP), Second Chance Properties (SCE SP), Fancl Corp (4921 JP), Descente Ltd (8114 JP), C.I. TAKIRON Corporation (4215 JP). 



Merger Arb Mondays (09 Sep) - Shinko, Fuji Soft, Pasco, GA Pack, CPMC, Latin Res, Capitol, PSC, Rex

Japanese Equity Specialist, Ortus Advisors

Andrew Jackson

Japanese Equity Specialist

Ortus Advisors

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>News Intel may be looking to restructure and even sell its fab business, a slight negative for Japanese SPE suppliers.</li>
<li>Japan upping defence budget to a record high a positive for related names, including KHI which has been excessively weak on the news it fabricated data for marine engine business.</li>
<li>Nikkei Inc. is expected to announce results for 30th September rebalance today or tomorrow which may see big buying for the likes of Ryohin Keikaku, NRI and possibly one other.</li>
</ul>


News Intel may be looking to restructure and even sell its fab business, a slight negative for Japanese SPE suppliers.
Japan upping defence budget to a record high a positive for related names, including KHI which has been excessively weak on the news it fabricated data for marine engine business.
Nikkei Inc. is expected to announce results for 30th September rebalance today or tomorrow which may see big buying for the likes of Ryohin Keikaku, NRI and possibly one other.


Japan Morning Connection: Record Defense Budget and Nikkei Rebalance Set to Boost Related Stocks

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>Today after the close, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shinko-electric-industries" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15066:1" rel="noopener">Shinko Electric Industries (6967 JP)</a> offered a progress report on the approvals for the JIC Consortium Tender Offer originally "scheduled" to start in late August 2024.</li>
<li>"Procedures and Steps Necessary under the competition laws of Vietnam and China have not been completed" so the Tender Offeror expects to commence the Tender Offer in/after late January 2025.</li>
<li>The <a href="https://www.shinko.co.jp/english/news/docs/20240826_02.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announcement</a> appears to suggest no update is likely for another five months or until the Tender Offer starts. That will introduce questions of further delay.</li>
</ul>


Today after the close, Shinko Electric Industries (6967 JP) offered a progress report on the approvals for the JIC Consortium Tender Offer originally "scheduled" to start in late August 2024.
"Procedures and Steps Necessary under the competition laws of Vietnam and China have not been completed" so the Tender Offeror expects to commence the Tender Offer in/after late January 2025.
The announcement appears to suggest no update is likely for another five months or until the Tender Offer starts. That will introduce questions of further delay.


Shinko Electric (6967) Deal Approval Delayed; From Here, Big Gap-, Small Break-, Some Delay-Risk

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shinko-electric-industries" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15066:1" rel="noopener">Shinko Electric Industries (6967 JP)</a> pre-conditional tender offer from the JIC alliance is JPY5,920 per share. The tender start has been delayed from late August to around late January 2025.</li>
<li>The delay was due to outstanding China SAMR and Vietnam regulatory approvals. The stretched timeline suggests that SAMR will likely conditionally approve the deal. </li>
<li>While <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ibiden-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16630:1" rel="noopener">Ibiden Co Ltd (4062 JP)</a>’s underperformance lowers the deal’s break price, timing, not break risk, remains the key concern. At the last close, the gross/annualised spread was 3.7%/7.5%. </li>
</ul>



Shinko Electric Industries (6967 JP) pre-conditional tender offer from the JIC alliance is JPY5,920 per share. The tender start has been delayed from late August to around late January 2025.
The delay was due to outstanding China SAMR and Vietnam regulatory approvals. The stretched timeline suggests that SAMR will likely conditionally approve the deal. 
While Ibiden Co Ltd (4062 JP)’s underperformance lowers the deal’s break price, timing, not break risk, remains the key concern. At the last close, the gross/annualised spread was 3.7%/7.5%. 


Shinko Electric (6967 JP): Tender Start Timelines Delayed

<ul>
<li>The Sep 2024 Nikkei 225 Review base date is here. As before, I see one ADD, one DELETE, one capping, and one Very Dark Horse.</li>
<li>The rules are clear, but not. This causes confusion. There may be unwritten rules keeping the Very Dark Horse out til next time.</li>
<li>The Nikkei Index Team announced <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fast-retailing-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:751:1" rel="noopener">Fast Retailing (9983 JP)</a> would be capped. I didn't expect that now. That means $2.2bn+ of selling 30Sep and a reverse funding trade.</li>
</ul>


The Sep 2024 Nikkei 225 Review base date is here. As before, I see one ADD, one DELETE, one capping, and one Very Dark Horse.
The rules are clear, but not. This causes confusion. There may be unwritten rules keeping the Very Dark Horse out til next time.
The Nikkei Index Team announced Fast Retailing (9983 JP) would be capped. I didn't expect that now. That means $2.2bn+ of selling 30Sep and a reverse funding trade.


Sep24 Nikkei 225 Rebal Final Predictions - Fastie Capped, Still 1 ADD, 1 DELETE, 1 Dark Horse and ?s

Japan

IBIDEN CO, LTD. develops, produces, and markets ceramics, housing materials, and electronics.  The Company's products include printed circuit boards (PCB), graphite specialties, integrated circuit (IC) packages, ceramic fibers, melamine decorative high-pressure laminates, and pre-cut structural materials.

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Ibiden Co Ltd (4062 JP)

Merger Arb Mondays (09 Sep) - Shinko, Fuji Soft, Pasco, GA Pack, CPMC, Latin Res, Capitol, PSC, Rex

This week, the highest gross spreads are HEC Pharma (116.0%), Canvest (8.4%), Shinko Electric (7.9%), Malaysia Airports (7.4%), GA Pack (6.9%),...

Arun George

Shinko Electric (6967) Deal Approval Delayed; From Here, Big Gap-, Small Break-, Some Delay-Risk

The Shinko Electric Tender start has been delayed by lack of approval from Vietnam and China. China was expected. Now we wait to Jan-25? I see...

Travis Lundy

Shinko Electric (6967 JP): Tender Start Timelines Delayed

The stretched timeline suggests that SAMR will likely conditionally approve the deal. Timing, not break risk, remains the key concern. At the last...

Arun George

Sep24 Nikkei 225 Rebal Final Predictions - Fastie Capped, Still 1 ADD, 1 DELETE, 1 Dark Horse and ?s

Nikkei 225 Sep24 Rebal data is done and dusted. I see one automatic DELETE, and one ADD. There is a dark horse possibility to replace that ADD but...

Travis Lundy

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Merger Arb Mondays (09 Sep) - Shinko, Fuji Soft, Pasco, GA Pack, CPMC, Latin Res, Capitol, PSC, Rex

This week, the highest gross spreads are HEC Pharma (116.0%), Canvest (8.4%), Shinko Electric (7.9%), Malaysia Airports (7.4%), GA Pack (6.9%),...

Arun George

Japan Morning Connection: Record Defense Budget and Nikkei Rebalance Set to Boost Related Stocks

​News Intel may restructure/sell fab business, negative for Japanese SPE suppliers. Japan defense budget increase positive for related names....

Andrew Jackson

Shinko Electric (6967) Deal Approval Delayed; From Here, Big Gap-, Small Break-, Some Delay-Risk

The Shinko Electric Tender start has been delayed by lack of approval from Vietnam and China. China was expected. Now we wait to Jan-25? I see...

Travis Lundy

Shinko Electric (6967 JP): Tender Start Timelines Delayed

The stretched timeline suggests that SAMR will likely conditionally approve the deal. Timing, not break risk, remains the key concern. At the last...

Arun George

Sep24 Nikkei 225 Rebal Final Predictions - Fastie Capped, Still 1 ADD, 1 DELETE, 1 Dark Horse and ?s

Nikkei 225 Sep24 Rebal data is done and dusted. I see one automatic DELETE, and one ADD. There is a dark horse possibility to replace that ADD but...

Travis Lundy

News Intel may restructure/sell fab business, negative for Japanese SPE suppliers. Japan defense budget increase positive for related names....