IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/arm-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21816:1" rel="noopener">ARM Holdings (1822695D US)</a> is the world’s most widely licensed and deployed processor. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/softbank-group-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:315:1" rel="noopener">Softbank Group (9984 JP)</a> seeks to raise about US$6-10 billion by listing ARM on Nasdaq.</li>
<li>We previously discussed the IPO in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/arm-holdings-ipo-the-bull-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:111238" rel="noopener">ARM Holdings IPO: The Bull Case</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/arm-holdings-ipo-the-bear-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:111471" rel="noopener">ARM Holdings IPO: The Bear Case</a>. </li>
<li>Our valuation analysis suggests that the rumoured target valuation of US$60-70 billion is unjustified. Our base-case DCF valuation is US$44.0 billion. </li>
</ul>



ARM Holdings (1822695D US) is the world’s most widely licensed and deployed processor. Softbank Group (9984 JP) seeks to raise about US$6-10 billion by listing ARM on Nasdaq.
We previously discussed the IPO in ARM Holdings IPO: The Bull Case and ARM Holdings IPO: The Bear Case. 
Our valuation analysis suggests that the rumoured target valuation of US$60-70 billion is unjustified. Our base-case DCF valuation is US$44.0 billion. 


Semiconductor & Technology Specialist, Ingenuity

William Keating

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist

Ingenuity

Our focus is exclusively on in-depth research & consulting in the broader semiconductor industry. We focus on the key players, namely Intel, Micron, Qualcomm, Apple, Samsung, NVIDIA, AMD, TSMC & Global Foundries - as well as some of the lesser known, but nonetheless critical, companies such as ASML (for EUV), Mellanox, Cavium, Xilinx etc. We specialise in their products, roadmaps, process technologies, competitive advantages & threats etc. We also help our clients understand the implications of new and emerging technologies, e.g. 3D X-Point, 3D NAND, Carbon Nanotubes, Autonomous Driving, Graphene, Silicon Photonics, Wafer-Level Optics, Artificial Intelligence, FPGA, GPU, ASIC etc. 

Semiconductor Analysis & Research

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>NVIDIA Q2’CY23 revenues of $13.51 billion, up 88% QoQ, up 101% YoY, blowing way past the $11 billion guidance midpoint.</li>
<li>Current quarter revenue is expected to be $16.00 billion. This will be a roughly 2.7x increase YoY </li>
<li>Are we in the middle of witnessing a bubble of dot.com era proportions?</li>
</ul>


NVIDIA Q2’CY23 revenues of $13.51 billion, up 88% QoQ, up 101% YoY, blowing way past the $11 billion guidance midpoint.
Current quarter revenue is expected to be $16.00 billion. This will be a roughly 2.7x increase YoY 
Are we in the middle of witnessing a bubble of dot.com era proportions?


NVIDIA. Revenue On Track For 2.7x YoY Growth in Q3'CY23

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/arm-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21816:1" rel="noopener">ARM Holdings (1822695D US)</a> is the world’s most widely licensed and deployed processor. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/softbank-group-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:315:1" rel="noopener">Softbank Group (9984 JP)</a> seeks to raise about US$6-10 billion by listing ARM on Nasdaq.</li>
<li>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/arm-holdings-ipo-the-bull-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:111238" rel="noopener">ARM Holdings IPO: The Bull Case</a>, we highlighted the key elements of the bull case. In this note, we outline the bear case.</li>
<li>The bear case rests on the deteriorating annualized contract value trajectory, declining ARM-powered chip shipments and revenue, ARM China overhang and red flag transactions involving SoftBank.</li>
</ul>



ARM Holdings (1822695D US) is the world’s most widely licensed and deployed processor. Softbank Group (9984 JP) seeks to raise about US$6-10 billion by listing ARM on Nasdaq.
In ARM Holdings IPO: The Bull Case, we highlighted the key elements of the bull case. In this note, we outline the bear case.
The bear case rests on the deteriorating annualized contract value trajectory, declining ARM-powered chip shipments and revenue, ARM China overhang and red flag transactions involving SoftBank.


Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/softbank-group-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:315:1" rel="noopener">Softbank Group (9984 JP)</a> aims to raise around US$8-10bn via selling some of its stake in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/arm-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21816:1" rel="noopener">ARM Holdings</a>’ US IPO.</li>
<li>ARM develops and licences high-performance, low-cost, and energy-efficient CPU products and related technology, which is used by semiconductor companies and OEMs to develop their own products.</li>
<li>In this note, we compare its recent performance versus its performance prior to its privatisation and discuss the changes since then.</li>
</ul>



Softbank Group (9984 JP) aims to raise around US$8-10bn via selling some of its stake in ARM Holdings’ US IPO.
ARM develops and licences high-performance, low-cost, and energy-efficient CPU products and related technology, which is used by semiconductor companies and OEMs to develop their own products.
In this note, we compare its recent performance versus its performance prior to its privatisation and discuss the changes since then.


ARM Holdings Pre-IPO - Pre-Privatisation to Pre-Listing Changes - Slower Growth, Lower Margins

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Major global semi fabless/IDM companies (AMD/Intel/Qualcomm/TI/Infineon/ STM/MTK/OnSemi) reported in-line 2Q23 but mixed 3Q23 outlook on diversified exposure on AI applications, slower consumer electronics demand recovery, continued inventory digestion and margin pressure.</li><li>Overall, inventory digestion is below expectation in 2Q23, leading to rising DOI for most fabless players.</li><li>Demand recovery is expected to remain weak in 2H23E with planned production cut for most companies especially for those with limited exposure to AI.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Major global semi fabless/IDM companies (AMD/Intel/Qualcomm/TI/Infineon/ STM/MTK/OnSemi) reported in-line 2Q23 but mixed 3Q23 outlook on diversified exposure on AI applications, slower consumer electronics demand recovery, continued inventory digestion and margin pressure.Overall, inventory digestion is below expectation in 2Q23, leading to rising DOI for most fabless players.Demand recovery is expected to remain weak in 2H23E with planned production cut for most companies especially for those with limited exposure to AI.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

China Technology – Global Fabless/IDM 2Q23 Wrap

United States

Intel Corporation designs, manufactures, and sells computer components and related products.  The Company's major products include microprocessors, chipsets, embedded processors and microcontrollers, flash memory products, graphics products, network and communications products, systems management software, conferencing products, and digital imaging products.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Intel Corp (INTC US)

ARM Holdings IPO: Valuation Insights

Our valuation analysis suggests that the rumoured target valuation of US$60-70 billion is unjustified. Our base-case DCF valuation is US$44.0 billion.

Arun George

NVIDIA. Revenue On Track For 2.7x YoY Growth in Q3'CY23

NVIDIA Q2’CY23 $13.51 billion, +88% QoQ, +101% YoY. Q3'CY23 forecast of $16.00 billion, ~2.7x increase YoY. Is this a bubble of dot.com era...

William Keating

ARM Holdings IPO: The Bear Case

The bear case rests on the deteriorating ACV trajectory, declining ARM-powered chip shipments and revenue, ARM China overhang and red flag...

Arun George

ARM Holdings Pre-IPO - Pre-Privatisation to Pre-Listing Changes - Slower Growth, Lower Margins

Softbank Group aims to raise around US$8-10bn via selling some of its stake in ARM Holdings’ US IPO. In this note, we compare its recent...

Sumeet Singh

China Technology – Global Fabless/IDM 2Q23 Wrap

Demand recovery is expected to remain weak in 2H23E with planned production cut for most companies especially for those with limited exposure to AI.

CMB International

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)