Technology / Semiconductor / Internet Research

Nicolas Baratte

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Samsung doesn’t provide guidance when it reports, but gives revenue an operating profit guidance ~2 weeks before reporting. But we have an officially non-official preview in Korean media. </li>
<li>2Q25 operating profit will be “weaker than expected”, declining “by more than 15% from the first quarter” to KRW mid-5 trillion range. Consensus expects +1% QoQ. </li>
<li>Some positive news to counter balance this large disappointment – smartphone, HBM3E – I am skeptical any of these can lift profits in 2H25, revisit early 2026.</li>
</ul>


Samsung doesn’t provide guidance when it reports, but gives revenue an operating profit guidance ~2 weeks before reporting. But we have an officially non-official preview in Korean media. 
2Q25 operating profit will be “weaker than expected”, declining “by more than 15% from the first quarter” to KRW mid-5 trillion range. Consensus expects +1% QoQ. 
Some positive news to counter balance this large disappointment – smartphone, HBM3E – I am skeptical any of these can lift profits in 2H25, revisit early 2026.


Samsung 2Q25 Official Leaks: Sharp Decline in Operating Profits, but It’s the Bottom. Really?

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Douglas Research Advisory

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>In this insight, we highlight the recent pricing gap divergences of the major Korean holdcos and opcos which could provide trading opportunities in 3Q 2025.</li>
<li>A whopping 87% (33 out of 38) holdcos/quasi holdcos outperformed their opco counterparts in the past three months, which is one of the best ever in the past two decades.</li>
<li>This appears to be one of the classic "buy the rumor, sell the news" trading opportunities. </li>
</ul>


In this insight, we highlight the recent pricing gap divergences of the major Korean holdcos and opcos which could provide trading opportunities in 3Q 2025.
A whopping 87% (33 out of 38) holdcos/quasi holdcos outperformed their opco counterparts in the past three months, which is one of the best ever in the past two decades.
This appears to be one of the classic "buy the rumor, sell the news" trading opportunities. 


Korean Holdcos Vs Opcos Gap Trading Opportunities in 3Q 2025

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in foreign holdings of KRX stocks as of Jun 27th. The aggregated holding was USD625.5bn.</li>
<li>We estimate that foreign flows to be inflows of USD100mln. We tabulates the league table for top changes by value for 1W/4W/1Y and top stocks held by foreign institutions.</li>
<li>We highlight changes of foreign holdings in SK Hynix, Kakaopay, Naver.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in foreign holdings of KRX stocks as of Jun 27th. The aggregated holding was USD625.5bn.
We estimate that foreign flows to be inflows of USD100mln. We tabulates the league table for top changes by value for 1W/4W/1Y and top stocks held by foreign institutions.
We highlight changes of foreign holdings in SK Hynix, Kakaopay, Naver.


KRX Foreign Holding Weekly (Jun 27th): SK Hynix, Kakaopay, Naver

Chief Executive Officer, Emmer Capital Partners Limited

Manishi Raychaudhuri

Chief Executive Officer

Emmer Capital Partners Limited

Emmer Capital Partners is an Asia Pacific focused financial advisory firm engaging in strategic financial asset allocation advice, bespoke thematic research and advising early-stage companies and connecting them to investors. Emmer Capital provides macro-economic and multi-asset investment strategy inputs to institutions, family offices, private wealth managers, private equity, and corporate boards directly and through independent research platforms. Emmer Capital also advises a wide range of startup companies on fund raising and business strategy. Emmer Capital's active engagement with the print and electronic media reaches a broad spectrum of investors across the globe.

<ul>
<li>Responding to clients' queries, we backtest our hypothesis of EPS estimate upgrades driving share prices. We measure price index movements in the sectors with EPS upgrades during the upgrade period.</li>
<li>Out of 32 market-sectors with EPS upgrades, share prices of 6 declined, that of 1 stayed flat and those of 25 appreciated. Our indicator has a roughly 80% strike rate.</li>
<li>The cheaper market-sectors appreciated much more than the quantum of EPS upgrades. The Korean sectors and few in Taiwan and ASEAN, notably. For cheap sectors, EPS upgrades are rerating catalysts.</li>
</ul>


Responding to clients' queries, we backtest our hypothesis of EPS estimate upgrades driving share prices. We measure price index movements in the sectors with EPS upgrades during the upgrade period.
Out of 32 market-sectors with EPS upgrades, share prices of 6 declined, that of 1 stayed flat and those of 25 appreciated. Our indicator has a roughly 80% strike rate.
The cheaper market-sectors appreciated much more than the quantum of EPS upgrades. The Korean sectors and few in Taiwan and ASEAN, notably. For cheap sectors, EPS upgrades are rerating catalysts.


Asian Equities: EPS Estimate Upgrades Do Drive Share Prices

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We discussed in last week's June 19 report how bullish price and RS trends on Israel's TA-125 was our tell that global equities were looking past Israel-Iran tensions.</li>
<li>Now completely in the rear-view mirror.  We also discussed how we were expecting short-term support on ACWI-US at $123-$123.50 (6.5-month base support), and ACWI-US bottomed at $123.20 on Monday.</li>
<li>As a result, we remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass).</li>
</ul>


We discussed in last week's June 19 report how bullish price and RS trends on Israel's TA-125 was our tell that global equities were looking past Israel-Iran tensions.
Now completely in the rear-view mirror.  We also discussed how we were expecting short-term support on ACWI-US at $123-$123.50 (6.5-month base support), and ACWI-US bottomed at $123.20 on Monday.
As a result, we remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass).


Downgrading Germany and Ireland; Global Technology Still Leading; Crucial Base Supports Holding

South Korea

SK Hynix Inc. provides products and services for the electronic components industry. The Company manufactures semiconductors, such as dynamic random access memory (DRAM), NAND flash memory, and static random access memory (SRAM) chips.

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SK Hynix (000660 KS)

Samsung 2Q25 Official Leaks: Sharp Decline in Operating Profits, but It’s the Bottom. Really?

Samsung's 2Q25 operating profit to decline by over 15% from Q1, Consensus expects +1%. Some positive news but skepticism about profit lift in 2H25.

Nicolas Baratte

Korean Holdcos Vs Opcos Gap Trading Opportunities in 3Q 2025

A whopping 87% (33 out of 38) holdcos/quasi holdcos outperformed their opco counterparts in the past three months, which is one of the best ever in...

Douglas Kim

KRX Foreign Holding Weekly (Jun 27th): SK Hynix, Kakaopay, Naver

We analyzed KRX foreign holding data for the past week and highlighted foreign holding changes in SK Hynix, Kakaopay, Naver.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Downgrading Germany and Ireland; Global Technology Still Leading; Crucial Base Supports Holding

Downgrading Germany and Ireland; Global Technology Still Leading; Crucial Base Supports Holding on $ACWI ($123-123.50), $EEM ($46)

Vermilion Research

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Samsung 2Q25 Official Leaks: Sharp Decline in Operating Profits, but It’s the Bottom. Really?

​Samsung's 2Q25 operating profit to decline by over 15% from Q1, Consensus expects +1%. Some positive news but skepticism about profit lift in 2H25.

Nicolas Baratte

Korean Holdcos Vs Opcos Gap Trading Opportunities in 3Q 2025

A whopping 87% (33 out of 38) holdcos/quasi holdcos outperformed their opco counterparts in the past three months, which is one of the best ever in...

Douglas Kim

KRX Foreign Holding Weekly (Jun 27th): SK Hynix, Kakaopay, Naver

We analyzed KRX foreign holding data for the past week and highlighted foreign holding changes in SK Hynix, Kakaopay, Naver.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asian Equities: EPS Estimate Upgrades Do Drive Share Prices

​In response to clients' queries we backtest the efficacy of EPS est. upgrades as an indicator of share price movement. The indicator has 80%...

Manishi Raychaudhuri

Downgrading Germany and Ireland; Global Technology Still Leading; Crucial Base Supports Holding

Downgrading Germany and Ireland; Global Technology Still Leading; Crucial Base Supports Holding on $ACWI ($123-123.50), $EEM ($46)

Vermilion Research

Samsung's 2Q25 operating profit to decline by over 15% from Q1, Consensus expects +1%. Some positive news but skepticism about profit lift in 2H25.

In response to clients' queries we backtest the efficacy of EPS est. upgrades as an indicator of share price movement. The indicator has 80%...