AI and Energy Infrastructure, Explained Plainly, The Physical Layer

The Physical Layer

AI and Energy Infrastructure, Explained Plainly

A journal on the physical constraints behind the AI buildout: power, grid connection, data centres, cooling and the supply chains that gate them. Written to be understood by anyone.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Every factory making the most advanced AI chips needs EUV machines, and ASML, a Dutch company, is the only maker.</li><li>It expects to ship about 65 of its standard model this year, its full capacity, and says next year's machines are already close to fully ordered.</li><li>Its output can grow only as fast as its German optics supplier allows, so a chipmaker that wants more must order a year or two ahead, much as a data centre books its grid connection.</li></ul>

Every factory making the most advanced AI chips needs EUV machines, and ASML, a Dutch company, is the only maker.It expects to ship about 65 of its standard model this year, its full capacity, and says next year's machines are already close to fully ordered.Its output can grow only as fast as its German optics supplier allows, so a chipmaker that wants more must order a year or two ahead, much as a data centre books its grid connection.

ASML's EUV machines are booked a year or two ahead, like a grid connection

<ul><li>Micron, one of three companies that make the stacked memory beside AI chips, commits most of each year's supply of it before that year starts.</li><li>By Micron's own account, each unit of it uses about three times the silicon of ordinary computer memory.</li><li>So while AI memory grows faster than the rest, it takes silicon away from the ordinary memory in phones, laptops and servers, and keeps that short too.</li></ul>

Micron, one of three companies that make the stacked memory beside AI chips, commits most of each year's supply of it before that year starts.By Micron's own account, each unit of it uses about three times the silicon of ordinary computer memory.So while AI memory grows faster than the rest, it takes silicon away from the ordinary memory in phones, laptops and servers, and keeps that short too.

Micron sells AI memory before the year starts, and each bit takes three times the wafer

Hedge Fund News, Information and Data, Hedge Fund Alpha

Hedge Fund Alpha

Hedge Fund News, Information and Data

We focus on hedge funds with a bias towards emerging managers, specifically fundamental long-short managers. We are known for a lot of insights and exclusives on hedge fund letters, coverage of industry conferences, and interviews with investors and interesting service providers.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Green Ash Horizon Fund fell 10.02% in July, sharply underperforming the MSCI World’s 0.51% gain as a broad momentum unwind hit technology and AI-related stocks.</li><li>The sell-off proved particularly severe in semiconductors, which fell 20% after gaining 88% over the preceding three months.</li><li>Despite the correction, hedge fund manager James Sanders remains constructive on the fundamental outlook and continues to see strong long-term potential in AI infrastructure.</li></ul>

Green Ash Horizon Fund fell 10.02% in July, sharply underperforming the MSCI World’s 0.51% gain as a broad momentum unwind hit technology and AI-related stocks.The sell-off proved particularly severe in semiconductors, which fell 20% after gaining 88% over the preceding three months.Despite the correction, hedge fund manager James Sanders remains constructive on the fundamental outlook and continues to see strong long-term potential in AI infrastructure.

Green Ash Horizon Fund Falls 10% in July as AI and Semiconductor Momentum Reverses

Founder, Market Thinker

Mark Tinker

Founder

Market Thinker

Mark Tinker has over 35 years experience as an investor, market strategist and economist. Having spent more than 20 years as a sell side strategist and being top rated on numerous occasions and surveys he moved to investment management in 2006 to run global equity portfolios in London and subsequently moved to Hong Kong in 2013 to help establish an Investment Management business for a top 20 international asset manager. He first started writing investment weeklies for his employers in 1989, developing a style characterised under the title Market Thinking and has been a regular commentator and presenter on CNBC, Bloomberg and other business channels, where his approach of rationalising market behaviour rather than making short term predictions on high frequency market data provides a welcome balance to his client audience.

Making Sense of the Narrative

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>July was a month of market mean reversion; stocks that were up more than 100% in the first half, fell back an average of 25% in July, while stocks that were down more than 50% rallied by an average of 11%.</li><li>In most cases, this still left the longer term themes intact, but for those who live and die by monthly returns it is fair to say it was a tough month.</li><li>The biggest hits came in the crowded tech hardware stocks, where we discovered at the end of the month one particularly large and heavily leveraged fund was forced into a dramatic unwind.</li></ul>

July was a month of market mean reversion; stocks that were up more than 100% in the first half, fell back an average of 25% in July, while stocks that were down more than 50% rallied by an average of 11%.In most cases, this still left the longer term themes intact, but for those who live and die by monthly returns it is fair to say it was a tough month.The biggest hits came in the crowded tech hardware stocks, where we discovered at the end of the month one particularly large and heavily leveraged fund was forced into a dramatic unwind.

Tracking developments across tech supply chains, Tech Supply Chain Tracker

Tech Supply Chain Tracker

Tracking developments across tech supply chains

<ul><li>Samsung is shifting its focus from 2D NAND production to 1c DRAM fabrication at its Hwaseong Line 12.</li><li>Team Group and Apacer are achieving record profits due to increased demand for DRAM and NAND, driven by AI advancements.</li><li>In Malaysia, the scrutiny surrounding the Arm deal is growing, influenced by recent seizures and political developments.</li></ul>

Samsung is shifting its focus from 2D NAND production to 1c DRAM fabrication at its Hwaseong Line 12.Team Group and Apacer are achieving record profits due to increased demand for DRAM and NAND, driven by AI advancements.In Malaysia, the scrutiny surrounding the Arm deal is growing, influenced by recent seizures and political developments.

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (27-Feb-2026): Samsung exits 2D NAND, converts fab to 1c DRAM.

South Korea

SK Hynix Inc. provides products and services for the electronic components industry. The Company manufactures semiconductors, such as dynamic random access memory (DRAM), NAND flash memory, and static random access memory (SRAM) chips.

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SK Hynix (000660 KS)

ASML's EUV machines are booked a year or two ahead, like a grid connection

Every factory making the most advanced AI chips needs EUV machines, and ASML, a Dutch company, is the only maker. It expects to ship about 65 of...

The Physical Layer

Micron sells AI memory before the year starts, and each bit takes three times the wafer

Micron, one of three companies that make the stacked memory beside AI chips, commits most of each year's supply of it before that year starts. By...

The Physical Layer

Green Ash Horizon Fund Falls 10% in July as AI and Semiconductor Momentum Reverses

Green Ash Horizon Fund fell 10.02% in July, sharply underperforming the MSCI World’s 0.51% gain as a broad momentum unwind hit technology and...

Hedge Fund Alpha

Thanks for the Memory..

July was a month of market mean reversion; stocks that were up more than 100% in the first half, fell back an average of 25% in July, while stocks...

Mark Tinker

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (27-Feb-2026): Samsung exits 2D NAND, converts fab to 1c DRAM.

Samsung will stop 2D NAND production to focus on DRAM, while Team Group and Apacer thrive on AI-driven demand, as scrutiny of the Arm deal grows in...

Tech Supply Chain Tracker

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