Tracking developments across tech supply chains, Tech Supply Chain Tracker

Tech Supply Chain Tracker

Tracking developments across tech supply chains

Equity Bottom-Up

Hon Hai Precision Industry / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Honda and Nissan cancel US$60 billion merger due to restructuring clashes, impacting future strategic moves by both companies.</li><li>CXMT progresses to 16nm DRAM production and shifts focus to 15nm development for technological advances in the future.</li><li>DeepSeek emerges as a strong AI player in China, intensifying competition for Apple in the technology market, while the US exit from the Paris Agreement raises concerns globally.</li></ul>

Honda and Nissan cancel US$60 billion merger due to restructuring clashes, impacting future strategic moves by both companies.CXMT progresses to 16nm DRAM production and shifts focus to 15nm development for technological advances in the future.DeepSeek emerges as a strong AI player in China, intensifying competition for Apple in the technology market, while the US exit from the Paris Agreement raises concerns globally.

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (14-Feb-2025): Honda, Nissan cancel $60B merger amid clash.

<ul><li>Foxconn chairman emphasizes collaboration with Nissan, denies interest in takeover, focusing on their partnership.</li><li>SMIC targets automotive growth, facing competition in China's chip market, seeking to expand market share.</li><li>Microip sees 489% revenue growth post-CES success, expanding 'designless' strategy, fueling January success.</li></ul>

Foxconn chairman emphasizes collaboration with Nissan, denies interest in takeover, focusing on their partnership.SMIC targets automotive growth, facing competition in China's chip market, seeking to expand market share.Microip sees 489% revenue growth post-CES success, expanding 'designless' strategy, fueling January success.

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (13-Feb-2025): Foxconn chair denies Nissan takeover, focuses on collaboration.

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Douglas Research Advisory

<ul>
<li>Samsung Electronics (005930 KS)'s shares were up 3.5% (55,600 won) while KOSPI was down 0.3% today. We believe there were two major reasons for this.</li>
<li>First, there was a recent meeting among Lee Jae Yong (Samsung Electronics), Masayoshi Son (Softbank), and Sam Altman (Open AI) regarding a potential alliance regarding the new <strong>Stargate Project.</strong>
</li>
<li>Second, there has been increased speculation regarding additional <strong>total shareholder returns</strong> measures by Samsung Electronics that could be announced in the coming weeks. </li>
</ul>


Samsung Electronics (005930 KS)'s shares were up 3.5% (55,600 won) while KOSPI was down 0.3% today. We believe there were two major reasons for this.
First, there was a recent meeting among Lee Jae Yong (Samsung Electronics), Masayoshi Son (Softbank), and Sam Altman (Open AI) regarding a potential alliance regarding the new Stargate Project.

Second, there has been increased speculation regarding additional total shareholder returns measures by Samsung Electronics that could be announced in the coming weeks. 


Samsung Electronics - Positive Impact from the Potential Involvement in the Stargate Project

Technology / Semiconductor / Internet Research

Nicolas Baratte

<ul>
<li>Cautious 2025 outlook: SEAJ and other Japanese SPE firms have toned down 2025 expectations. TEL mentions a flat total end-demand.</li>
<li>In 2024, spending was concentrated in leading edge (AI) and China. In 2025, Intel and Samsung Logic Capex declines, China should decline. The bright spots are TSMC and HBM Capex.</li>
<li>Consensus expectations are low, but rightly so. The stock is at average PEx. Neutral territory.</li>
</ul>


Cautious 2025 outlook: SEAJ and other Japanese SPE firms have toned down 2025 expectations. TEL mentions a flat total end-demand.
In 2024, spending was concentrated in leading edge (AI) and China. In 2025, Intel and Samsung Logic Capex declines, China should decline. The bright spots are TSMC and HBM Capex.
Consensus expectations are low, but rightly so. The stock is at average PEx. Neutral territory.


Tokyo Electron (TEL):  Maintains Its FY25 Guidance and Provides a Cautious 2025 Outlook

<ul>
<li>Big Dec-24 due to China. Mar-25 will be weaker. FY26 growth will come only from TSMC and HBM. After a strong FY25 (~30% growth), FY26 should see growth at 10-15%.</li>
<li>Accounting concerns  should be over after the publication of the audit report on Jan 14 2025. The stock has started appreciating since early Jan 2025.</li>
<li>Valuations are low. The stock is trading at ~11x FY26 EPS. A muted Mar-25 could limit the upside short-term, let’s wait.</li>
</ul>


Big Dec-24 due to China. Mar-25 will be weaker. FY26 growth will come only from TSMC and HBM. After a strong FY25 (~30% growth), FY26 should see growth at 10-15%.
Accounting concerns  should be over after the publication of the audit report on Jan 14 2025. The stock has started appreciating since early Jan 2025.
Valuations are low. The stock is trading at ~11x FY26 EPS. A muted Mar-25 could limit the upside short-term, let’s wait.


SCREEN: Moderate ~teens Growth Outlook but the Stock Is Cheap

South Korea

SK Hynix Inc. provides products and services for the electronic components industry. The Company manufactures semiconductors, such as dynamic random access memory (DRAM), NAND flash memory, and static random access memory (SRAM) chips.

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SK Hynix (000660 KS)

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (14-Feb-2025): Honda, Nissan cancel $60B merger amid clash.

Honda and Nissan call off US$60 billion merger, CXMT advances in DRAM production, DeepSeek challenges Apple in AI market, US withdraws from Paris...

Tech Supply Chain Tracker

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (13-Feb-2025): Foxconn chair denies Nissan takeover, focuses on collaboration.

Foxconn denies interest in Nissan takeover, focusing on collaboration; SMIC targets automotive growth in response to China's chip market pressures;...

Tech Supply Chain Tracker

Samsung Electronics - Positive Impact from the Potential Involvement in the Stargate Project

Samsung Electronics' shares rise as potential alliance for Stargate Project and increased shareholder returns speculation boost investor confidence.

Douglas Kim

Tokyo Electron (TEL): Maintains Its FY25 Guidance and Provides a Cautious 2025 Outlook

Japanese SPE firms are cautious about 2025, with TSMC and HBM Capex as bright spots, while Intel and Samsung Logic Capex declines. Tokyo...

Nicolas Baratte

SCREEN: Moderate ~teens Growth Outlook but the Stock Is Cheap

China impact on Dec-24, weaker Mar-25, FY26 growth from TSMC/HBM. Accounting concerns resolved, stock appreciating. Low valuations at 11x FY26...

Nicolas Baratte

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Tech Supply Chain Tracker (14-Feb-2025): Honda, Nissan cancel $60B merger amid clash.

Honda and Nissan call off US$60 billion merger, CXMT advances in DRAM production, DeepSeek challenges Apple in AI market, US withdraws from Paris...

Tech Supply Chain Tracker

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (13-Feb-2025): Foxconn chair denies Nissan takeover, focuses on collaboration.

Foxconn denies interest in Nissan takeover, focusing on collaboration; SMIC targets automotive growth in response to China's chip market pressures;...

Tech Supply Chain Tracker

Samsung Electronics - Positive Impact from the Potential Involvement in the Stargate Project

​Samsung Electronics' shares rise as potential alliance for Stargate Project and increased shareholder returns speculation boost investor confidence.

Douglas Kim

Tokyo Electron (TEL): Maintains Its FY25 Guidance and Provides a Cautious 2025 Outlook

​Japanese SPE firms are cautious about 2025, with TSMC and HBM Capex as bright spots, while Intel and Samsung Logic Capex declines. Tokyo...

Nicolas Baratte

SCREEN: Moderate ~teens Growth Outlook but the Stock Is Cheap

​China impact on Dec-24, weaker Mar-25, FY26 growth from TSMC/HBM. Accounting concerns resolved, stock appreciating. Low valuations at 11x FY26...

Nicolas Baratte

Samsung Electronics' shares rise as potential alliance for Stargate Project and increased shareholder returns speculation boost investor confidence.

Japanese SPE firms are cautious about 2025, with TSMC and HBM Capex as bright spots, while Intel and Samsung Logic Capex declines. Tokyo...

China impact on Dec-24, weaker Mar-25, FY26 growth from TSMC/HBM. Accounting concerns resolved, stock appreciating. Low valuations at 11x FY26...