Founder and Strategist, Entext Economics & Strategy

Sean Maher

Founder and Strategist

Entext Economics & Strategy

Entext provides institutional investors with distinctive, actionable asset allocation and thematic research, which typically challenges the market consensus. Our clients range from credit, equity and multi-asset hedge and pension funds to family offices and sovereign funds. 
 
We focus on identifying key inflection points in macro data and relative asset performance amid the 'groupthink'  and confirmation bias that characterizes most investment bank analysis.

Macro Driven Investment Insight

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

The stunning EM equity rally YTD led by Asia has been justified by improving earnings/macro momentum and underpinned by tumbling IG and HY spreads.EM credit growth has accelerated from 5-6% in late 2016 to about 8% now while global trade volume growth has surged from flat to about 5% y/y.There are signs of complacency - cumulative portfolio inflows exceed $190bn since December and the global fund overweight in EM currencies in July approached historical highs last seen in 2011.If we see a…

The stunning EM equity rally YTD led by Asia has been justified by improving earnings/macro momentum and underpinned by tumbling IG and HY spreads.EM credit growth has accelerated from 5-6% in late 2016 to about 8% now while global trade volume growth has surged from flat to about 5% y/y.There are signs of complacency - cumulative portfolio inflows exceed $190bn since December and the global fund overweight in EM currencies in July approached historical highs last seen in 2011.If we see a…

India Vulnerable to EM Reversal, Li-Ion Batteries Set to Dominate Grid Storage...

Investing thematically in the electric/autonomous vehicle trends covered regularly since 2013 has proved profitable, with many battery, lithium and image sensor names up 3-4x.The MSCI auto component sector continues to outperform carmakers as auto complexity grows - Valeo estimates its powertrain content for a plug-in hybrid is 9x more valuable than a regular car.Volvo’s announcement that it was making all its output at least hybrid from 2019 was less significant than Baidu offering its AI…

Investing thematically in the electric/autonomous vehicle trends covered regularly since 2013 has proved profitable, with many battery, lithium and image sensor names up 3-4x.The MSCI auto component sector continues to outperform carmakers as auto complexity grows - Valeo estimates its powertrain content for a plug-in hybrid is 9x more valuable than a regular car.Volvo’s announcement that it was making all its output at least hybrid from 2019 was less significant than Baidu offering its AI…

Electrification and Autonomous Trends Reshaping Auto Industry…

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>Solactive has announced the review results for the Global Lithium Index. There are no constituent changes but there will be capping changes for some stocks.</li>
<li>Estimated one-way turnover is 7.8% and will result in a round-trip trade of US$360m.</li>
<li>The largest inflows are estimated to be in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tesla-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20279:1" rel="noopener">Tesla</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/byd-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20962:1" rel="noopener">BYD </a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/eve-energy-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14769:1" rel="noopener">EVE Energy</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lg-energy-solution" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33464:1" rel="noopener">LG Energy Solution</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tdk-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18847:1" rel="noopener">TDK Corp</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/naura-technology-group-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2333:1" rel="noopener">NAURA Technology Group</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/contemporary-amperex-technolog" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24404:1" rel="noopener">Contemporary Amperex Technology</a>.</li>
</ul>


Solactive has announced the review results for the Global Lithium Index. There are no constituent changes but there will be capping changes for some stocks.
Estimated one-way turnover is 7.8% and will result in a round-trip trade of US$360m.
The largest inflows are estimated to be in Tesla , BYD , EVE Energy, LG Energy Solution, TDK Corp, NAURA Technology Group and Contemporary Amperex Technology.


Solactive Global Lithium Index Rebalance: Capping Changes in April

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

DZT Research

DZT Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 180 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 67.6% as of Apr 17th.</li>
<li>The average A-H premium changed by -0.6ppt week-on-week, led by information technology, energy, materials and offset by utilities, consumer staples.</li>
<li>We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for China Longyuan Power, PICC, China Coal Energy, Hans Cnc.</li>
</ul>


We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 180 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 67.6% as of Apr 17th.
The average A-H premium changed by -0.6ppt week-on-week, led by information technology, energy, materials and offset by utilities, consumer staples.
We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for China Longyuan Power, PICC, China Coal Energy, Hans Cnc.


A-H Premium Weekly (Apr 17th): China Longyuan Power, PICC, China Coal Energy, Hans Cnc

<ul>
<li>We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of April 2nd.</li>
<li>The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.</li>
<li>We highlight flows for Meituan, BOC, Pop Mart Intl, SMIC, Xiaomi, ICBC, CNOOC, China Life, Alibaba, CK Asset.</li>
</ul>


We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of April 2nd.
The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.
We highlight flows for Meituan, BOC, Pop Mart Intl, SMIC, Xiaomi, ICBC, CNOOC, China Life, Alibaba, CK Asset.


HK Connect Flows Weekly (Apr 2nd): Meituan, BOC, Pop Mart Intl, SMIC, Xiaomi, ICBC, CNOOC

China

Jiangxi Ganfeng Lithium Co., Ltd. researches and produces lithium products and operates import, export and manufacturing businesses for its own products.  The Company's products include lithium metal, lithium aluminum hydride, lithium fluoride, lithium chloride, and other chemical products of lithium.

Price Gauge
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Jiangxi Ganfeng Lithium (002460 CH)

India Vulnerable to EM Reversal, Li-Ion Batteries Set to Dominate Grid Storage...

The stunning EM equity rally YTD led by Asia has been justified by improving earnings/macro momentum and underpinned by tumbling IG and HY...

Sean Maher

Electrification and Autonomous Trends Reshaping Auto Industry…

Investing thematically in the electric/autonomous vehicle trends covered regularly since 2013 has proved profitable, with many battery, lithium and...

Sean Maher

Solactive Global Lithium Index Rebalance: Capping Changes in April

There are no constituent changes for the index in April, but there are capping changes. Estimated one-way turnover is 7.8% and will result in a...

Brian Freitas

A-H Premium Weekly (Apr 17th): China Longyuan Power, PICC, China Coal Energy, Hans Cnc

We analyzed A-H premium changes in the past week and highlight A-H premium changes for China Longyuan Power, PICC, China Coal Energy, Hans Cnc.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

HK Connect Flows Weekly (Apr 2nd): Meituan, BOC, Pop Mart Intl, SMIC, Xiaomi, ICBC, CNOOC

We analyzed southbound Hong Kong connect flows in the past week and highlighted flows for Meituan, BOC, Pop Mart Intl, SMIC, Xiaomi, ICBC, CNOOC,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)