Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We had a near-term bullish outlook on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) and the S&amp;P 500 (SPX) from 4/22/25 to 11/18/25.</li>
<li>After being near-term neutral for a week, we flipped back to bullish in our 11/25/25 Compass, all while maintaining our intermediate-term bullish outlook (as of our 5/14/25 Compass).</li>
<li>We will stay near-term bullish as long as crucial support levels of 6480-6520 on SPX and $135.70 on ACWI-US continue to hold. </li>
</ul>


We had a near-term bullish outlook on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) and the S&amp;P 500 (SPX) from 4/22/25 to 11/18/25.
After being near-term neutral for a week, we flipped back to bullish in our 11/25/25 Compass, all while maintaining our intermediate-term bullish outlook (as of our 5/14/25 Compass).
We will stay near-term bullish as long as crucial support levels of 6480-6520 on SPX and $135.70 on ACWI-US continue to hold. 


"Lockout Rally" Underway; Downgrading China to Market Weight; Weak U.S. Dollar Is Risk-On Signal

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Growth rates of outbound and domestic air travel slowed again in September</li>
<li>Initial read on Golden Week demand: weak activity growth, weaker spending</li>
<li>In our view, it's increasingly difficult to retain an upbeat view of the sector</li>
</ul>


Growth rates of outbound and domestic air travel slowed again in September
Initial read on Golden Week demand: weak activity growth, weaker spending
In our view, it's increasingly difficult to retain an upbeat view of the sector


Monthly Chinese Tourism Tracker | Pace of Growth Slowed, Again | Golden Week? | October 2025

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>USCBP data from August shows Y/Y declines in traffic, especially at N. border</li>
<li>Overall, air travel to and from the US has held up well vs other travel modes</li>
<li>Some US regions hit harder than others; US losses could benefit Europe, others</li>
</ul>


USCBP data from August shows Y/Y declines in traffic, especially at N. border
Overall, air travel to and from the US has held up well vs other travel modes
Some US regions hit harder than others; US losses could benefit Europe, others


US Customs & Border Protection August Data | Air Crossings Stable | Europe Could Gain From US Losses

<ul>
<li>Weak travel growth getting weaker, now years out from steepest part of recovery</li>
<li>Most airlines &amp; hotel chains have benefitted little from improved travel demand</li>
<li>In recent months, appears momentum shifting back to travel intermediaries </li>
</ul>


Weak travel growth getting weaker, now years out from steepest part of recovery
Most airlines &amp; hotel chains have benefitted little from improved travel demand
In recent months, appears momentum shifting back to travel intermediaries 


Monthly Chinese Tourism Tracker | Momentum Shifts From Airlines to TCOM | September 2025

<ul>
<li>Led by Accommodation activity, Q225 net revenue growth was a solid +16% Y/Y </li>
<li>Some progress on OpEx control, but core margins declined <em>again</em> in Q225</li>
<li>Even with big buyback, is it worth US$75/ADS? We think fair value near US$60</li>
</ul>


Led by Accommodation activity, Q225 net revenue growth was a solid +16% Y/Y 
Some progress on OpEx control, but core margins declined again in Q225
Even with big buyback, is it worth US$75/ADS? We think fair value near US$60


Trip.com Q225 Results | Big Buyback a Surprise | But Margins Still Under Pressure | Fair Value US$60

China

Huazhu Group Limited operates a hotel operator and franchisor. The Company provides hotel leasing, directly hotel operation, and co-development services. Huazhu Group mainly conducts businesses in China.

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Huazhu Group (HTHT US)

"Lockout Rally" Underway; Downgrading China to Market Weight; Weak U.S. Dollar Is Risk-On Signal

"Lockout Rally" Underway $ACWI; Downgrading China $MCHI $FXI to Market Weight; U.S. Dollar (DXY) Providing Significant Risk-On Signal. Remain...

Vermilion Research

Monthly Chinese Tourism Tracker | Pace of Growth Slowed, Again | Golden Week? | October 2025

Chinese travel activity in September slowed, and a first look at Golden Week activity also suggests weak growth in travel and spending. We see few...

Tracking Traffic

US Customs & Border Protection August Data | Air Crossings Stable | Europe Could Gain From US Losses

August data from the US Customs & Border Protection agency shows a decline in US border crossings. Air crossings have held up relatively well, but...

Tracking Traffic

Monthly Chinese Tourism Tracker | Momentum Shifts From Airlines to TCOM | September 2025

Chinese air travel growth continues to slow. Chinese airlines have been unable to lift margins as aircraft utilization improves, and we no longer...

Tracking Traffic

Trip.com Q225 Results | Big Buyback a Surprise | But Margins Still Under Pressure | Fair Value US$60

Trip.com announced a big share buyback last week, but its Q225 core results were unimpressive. Given modest growth expectations, we put fair value...

Tracking Traffic

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