Global Materials | Industrials | Commodities

Rahul Jain

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>3Q25 marks a clear earnings inflection, with record revenue, strong EBITDA growth, and underlying net profit above ₩250 bn after adjusting for one-off derivative losses.</li>
<li>TC/RC recovery and rare-metals strength drive upgrades, lifting FY25–27 EBITDA/EPS by 8–20% and establishing a higher structural margin base.</li>
<li>Overnance resolution and treasury cancellations offer re-rating potential, with a target price of ₩1.52 mn implying ~27% upside.</li>
</ul>


3Q25 marks a clear earnings inflection, with record revenue, strong EBITDA growth, and underlying net profit above ₩250 bn after adjusting for one-off derivative losses.
TC/RC recovery and rare-metals strength drive upgrades, lifting FY25–27 EBITDA/EPS by 8–20% and establishing a higher structural margin base.
Overnance resolution and treasury cancellations offer re-rating potential, with a target price of ₩1.52 mn implying ~27% upside.


Korea Zinc – 3Q25 Review, TC/RC Upcycle, Rare-Metals Leverage & Governance Outlook

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Douglas Research Advisory

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>MBK Partners acquired an additional 2.7% stake in Korea Zinc raising its total ownership to 39.7%. This is likely to fuel additional positive share price momentum on Korea Zinc.</li>
<li>This is likely to rekindle a potential M&amp;A fight for the management control of the company. </li>
<li>This additional additional purchase of Korea Zinc by MBK Partners is a signal, not noise. Another M&amp;A fight is likely in the next AGM in March 2026. </li>
</ul>


MBK Partners acquired an additional 2.7% stake in Korea Zinc raising its total ownership to 39.7%. This is likely to fuel additional positive share price momentum on Korea Zinc.
This is likely to rekindle a potential M&amp;A fight for the management control of the company. 
This additional additional purchase of Korea Zinc by MBK Partners is a signal, not noise. Another M&amp;A fight is likely in the next AGM in March 2026. 


MBK Partners: Acquires Additional 2.7% Stake in Korea Zinc - Another M&A Fight in March 2026?

<ul>
<li>Recent News: CZSPT’s Sep 9 guidance points to imported zinc concentrate treatment charges of US$120-140/dmt for Q4, and Bloomberg confirms Chinese smelters are tightening terms.</li>
<li>Impact: This rebound in TC/RC levels should lift Korea Zinc’s EBITDA by approximately US$100-135 million, representing a ~5-7% earnings upside over current troughs.</li>
<li>Valuation: On normalized earnings, Korea Zinc could re-rate to 8–9× EV/EBITDA. At $120–150/dmt TCs, this points to ~20–50% upside, with further headroom if multiples expand alongside earnings recovery.</li>
</ul>


Recent News: CZSPT’s Sep 9 guidance points to imported zinc concentrate treatment charges of US$120-140/dmt for Q4, and Bloomberg confirms Chinese smelters are tightening terms.
Impact: This rebound in TC/RC levels should lift Korea Zinc’s EBITDA by approximately US$100-135 million, representing a ~5-7% earnings upside over current troughs.
Valuation: On normalized earnings, Korea Zinc could re-rate to 8–9× EV/EBITDA. At $120–150/dmt TCs, this points to ~20–50% upside, with further headroom if multiples expand alongside earnings recovery.


Korea Zinc (010130 KS): TC/RC Recovery Sets Stage for Earnings Re-Rating

<ul>
<li>Korea Zinc (010130 KS) is the world’s largest merchant zinc smelter, with growing exposure to high-margin rare metals (Sb/In/Bi).</li>
<li>Management is executing the “Troika Drive” strategy—expanding copper and nickel sulfate capacity while scaling strategic minerals and recycling.</li>
<li>Stock trades at ~5x 2027E earnings and ~4.7x EV/EBITDA, a clear discount to peers, key risks remain rare metal price volatility, zinc TC/RC recovery timing</li>
</ul>


Korea Zinc (010130 KS) is the world’s largest merchant zinc smelter, with growing exposure to high-margin rare metals (Sb/In/Bi).
Management is executing the “Troika Drive” strategy—expanding copper and nickel sulfate capacity while scaling strategic minerals and recycling.
Stock trades at ~5x 2027E earnings and ~4.7x EV/EBITDA, a clear discount to peers, key risks remain rare metal price volatility, zinc TC/RC recovery timing


Korea Zinc (010130 KS) – Rare Metals Rerating + TC/RC Recovery = Deep Value Setup

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200 / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Since short selling was banned in November 2023, short interest has plunged in Korea as shorts were covered. Markets have not done much over the last 16 months though. </li>
<li>Foreign investor holdings have dropped from 32.05% in July to 28.57%. The top 25 stocks bought by foreign investors outperformed the top 25 stocks sold by 128% in 16 months.</li>
<li>There will be trade opportunities across indices, pref/ords, index migrations and deletions, potential market upgrades and overvalued stocks being sold.</li>
</ul>


Since short selling was banned in November 2023, short interest has plunged in Korea as shorts were covered. Markets have not done much over the last 16 months though. 
Foreign investor holdings have dropped from 32.05% in July to 28.57%. The top 25 stocks bought by foreign investors outperformed the top 25 stocks sold by 128% in 16 months.
There will be trade opportunities across indices, pref/ords, index migrations and deletions, potential market upgrades and overvalued stocks being sold.


Korea: Short Selling Is Back in March; Trade Ideas

South Korea

Korea Zinc Co., Ltd. specializes in non-ferrous metal smelting industry.  The Company manufactures zinc ingots, electrolytic gold, silver, lead, sulfuric acid, and copper.  Korea Zinc provides its products to domestic and overseas markets.

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Korea Zinc (010130 KS)

Korea Zinc – 3Q25 Review, TC/RC Upcycle, Rare-Metals Leverage & Governance Outlook

3Q25 shows strong earnings growth with record revenue and net profit above ₩250 bn, driven by TC/RC recovery and rare-metals strength, leading to...

Rahul Jain

MBK Partners: Acquires Additional 2.7% Stake in Korea Zinc - Another M&A Fight in March 2026?

MBK Partners acquired an additional 2.7% stake in Korea Zinc raising its total ownership to 39.7%. Another M&A fight is likely in the next AGM in...

Douglas Kim