Blue Lotus Research Institute

Andy Fu

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Consumption subsidies in China has been muted in the 2020-2024 period, compared to practices in 2009-2012. We believe it reflects different thought of Chinese government at these two times;</li>
<li>Past data has suggested that consumption subsidies are effective. We expect consumer subsidies of ~RMB 50bn to be issued in C2H24 to revive consumption;</li>
<li>An even bigger consumer stimulus of ~RMB 200bn might be issued in 2025, and we believe a consumption tax reform might be one the permanent fixes for the purpose.</li>
</ul>


Consumption subsidies in China has been muted in the 2020-2024 period, compared to practices in 2009-2012. We believe it reflects different thought of Chinese government at these two times;
Past data has suggested that consumption subsidies are effective. We expect consumer subsidies of ~RMB 50bn to be issued in C2H24 to revive consumption;
An even bigger consumer stimulus of ~RMB 200bn might be issued in 2025, and we believe a consumption tax reform might be one the permanent fixes for the purpose.


How to Stimulate China's Consumption, Part IV：Consumption Voucher Is Effective

Blue Lotus Non US Internet research, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Ying Pan

Blue Lotus Non US Internet research

<ul>
<li>PDD US/BABA US/JD US/VIPS US/3690 HK: NBS publishes social retail consumption data for June 2024 (-/+)</li>
<li>1024 HK: Kuaishou Releases First Fully AI-Generated Micro-Drama, Receives Positive Reviews.（+）</li>
<li>BABA US/PDD US/1519 HK/ZTO US: Weekly parcel volume shows 26% y-o-y growth (+)</li>
</ul>


PDD US/BABA US/JD US/VIPS US/3690 HK: NBS publishes social retail consumption data for June 2024 (-/+)
1024 HK: Kuaishou Releases First Fully AI-Generated Micro-Drama, Receives Positive Reviews.（+）
BABA US/PDD US/1519 HK/ZTO US: Weekly parcel volume shows 26% y-o-y growth (+)


[Blue Lotus Daily-TMT Update]:PDD US/BABA US/JD US/VIPS/3690HK/1024 HK/1519HK/ZTO/TCOM/NTES/BILI/

<ul>
<li>3690 HK:Kuaigou Dache (ride hailing) Lowers Commission Rate for Drivers in Tianjin to 10% (-)</li>
<li>TCOM US:Ctrip Introduces Family Card, Allowing Users to Book Trips for Their Elderly Parents (+)</li>
<li>700 HK: &lt;Honor of Kings&gt; to Launch Ranked System Optimization: Points for Wins and Losses (+)</li>
</ul>


3690 HK:Kuaigou Dache (ride hailing) Lowers Commission Rate for Drivers in Tianjin to 10% (-)
TCOM US:Ctrip Introduces Family Card, Allowing Users to Book Trips for Their Elderly Parents (+)
700 HK: &lt;Honor of Kings&gt; to Launch Ranked System Optimization: Points for Wins and Losses (+)


[Blue Lotus Daily-TMT Update]:3690 HK/TCOM US/700 HK/JD US/BABA US/PDD US/1519HK/ZTOUS/NTESUS/BILIUS

<ul>
<li>BABA US/JD US/3690 HK: Taobao adds one-hour delivery entrance to app homepage (+/-/-)</li>
<li>BABA US: Alibaba upgrades enterprise-chat application “DingTalk” into an AI super-app (+)</li>
<li>TCOM US :The average ticket price for domestic routes during the summer vacation period decreased by 12%, with a narrowing decline (+)</li>
</ul>


BABA US/JD US/3690 HK: Taobao adds one-hour delivery entrance to app homepage (+/-/-)
BABA US: Alibaba upgrades enterprise-chat application “DingTalk” into an AI super-app (+)
TCOM US :The average ticket price for domestic routes during the summer vacation period decreased by 12%, with a narrowing decline (+)


[Blue Lotus Daily-TMT Update]:BABA US/JD US/3690 HK/TCOM US/NTES US/700 HK/

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

<ul><li>Year to date, the internet sector has pulled back after rapid rallies buoyed by improved sentiment and short-term fund inflows, in line with our previous expectation.</li><li>From a full-year perspective, given the rate cut cycle has not yet started and liquidity remains tight, we suggest focusing on: 1) companies capable of boosting shareholder returns or maintaining decent returns, supported by solid fundamentals (strong competitive advantages, steady growth in core business, and stable profitability) and committed to enhancing shareholder returns (also depends on management's willingness), such as Alibaba, Tencent, and NetEase;</li><li>2) companies whose new businesses have significant market potential and are poised to bring considerable capital gains in the long run, particularly from overseas expansion and AI-related initiatives, such as Pinduoduo, Tencent, Alibaba, and Trip.com</li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

Year to date, the internet sector has pulled back after rapid rallies buoyed by improved sentiment and short-term fund inflows, in line with our previous expectation.From a full-year perspective, given the rate cut cycle has not yet started and liquidity remains tight, we suggest focusing on: 1) companies capable of boosting shareholder returns or maintaining decent returns, supported by solid fundamentals (strong competitive advantages, steady growth in core business, and stable profitability) and committed to enhancing shareholder returns (also depends on management's willingness), such as Alibaba, Tencent, and NetEase;2) companies whose new businesses have significant market potential and are poised to bring considerable capital gains in the long run, particularly from overseas expansion and AI-related initiatives, such as Pinduoduo, Tencent, Alibaba, and Trip.comContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Internet - 1Q24 recap & our three stock-picking ideas

China

Trip.com Group Ltd. provides online travel agency services. The Company offers mobile applications, hotel reservations, flight ticketing, package tours, corporate travel management, and train ticketing services.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Trip.com (TCOM US)

How to Stimulate China's Consumption, Part IV：Consumption Voucher Is Effective

China's consumption subsidies have been quite conservative but actually effective. We expect more subsidies in 2H24 and far more in 2025. We...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

[Blue Lotus Daily-TMT Update]:PDD US/BABA US/JD US/VIPS/3690HK/1024 HK/1519HK/ZTO/TCOM/NTES/BILI/

NBS releases social retail consumption data for June 2024, Kuaishou's AI-generated micro-drama receives positive reviews, and weekly parcel volume...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

[Blue Lotus Daily-TMT Update]:3690 HK/TCOM US/700 HK/JD US/BABA US/PDD US/1519HK/ZTOUS/NTESUS/BILIUS

Kuaigou Dache lowers commission rate for drivers, Ctrip introduces Family Card for booking trips for elderly parents, Honor of Kings to launch...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

[Blue Lotus Daily-TMT Update]:BABA US/JD US/3690 HK/TCOM US/NTES US/700 HK/

Alibaba enhances delivery service and AI capabilities, while domestic flight ticket prices see a slight decrease during summer vacation period.

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Internet - 1Q24 recap & our three stock-picking ideas

Year to date, the internet sector has pulled back after rapid rallies buoyed by improved sentiment and short-term fund inflows, in line with our...

CMB International

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

How to Stimulate China's Consumption, Part IV：Consumption Voucher Is Effective

​China's consumption subsidies have been quite conservative but actually effective. We expect more subsidies in 2H24 and far more in 2025. We...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

[Blue Lotus Daily-TMT Update]:PDD US/BABA US/JD US/VIPS/3690HK/1024 HK/1519HK/ZTO/TCOM/NTES/BILI/

​NBS releases social retail consumption data for June 2024, Kuaishou's AI-generated micro-drama receives positive reviews, and weekly parcel volume...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

[Blue Lotus Daily-TMT Update]:3690 HK/TCOM US/700 HK/JD US/BABA US/PDD US/1519HK/ZTOUS/NTESUS/BILIUS

​Kuaigou Dache lowers commission rate for drivers, Ctrip introduces Family Card for booking trips for elderly parents, Honor of Kings to launch...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

[Blue Lotus Daily-TMT Update]:BABA US/JD US/3690 HK/TCOM US/NTES US/700 HK/

​Alibaba enhances delivery service and AI capabilities, while domestic flight ticket prices see a slight decrease during summer vacation period.

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Internet - 1Q24 recap & our three stock-picking ideas

Year to date, the internet sector has pulled back after rapid rallies buoyed by improved sentiment and short-term fund inflows, in line with our...

CMB International

China's consumption subsidies have been quite conservative but actually effective. We expect more subsidies in 2H24 and far more in 2025. We...

NBS releases social retail consumption data for June 2024, Kuaishou's AI-generated micro-drama receives positive reviews, and weekly parcel volume...

Kuaigou Dache lowers commission rate for drivers, Ctrip introduces Family Card for booking trips for elderly parents, Honor of Kings to launch...

Alibaba enhances delivery service and AI capabilities, while domestic flight ticket prices see a slight decrease during summer vacation period.