Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The pace of Trip.com's Net Revenue growth picked up in Q425, to just under 21% Y/Y</li>
<li>But OpInc and Adjusted EBITDA margins continued to decline in the period</li>
<li>Poor cost control, weight of ongoing investigation prompt us to AVOID the shares</li>
</ul>


The pace of Trip.com's Net Revenue growth picked up in Q425, to just under 21% Y/Y
But OpInc and Adjusted EBITDA margins continued to decline in the period
Poor cost control, weight of ongoing investigation prompt us to AVOID the shares


Trip.com Q425 Results | Strong Top-Line Growth, But Margin Compression Continues | AVOID

Overseas Chinese Equities, Aequitas Research

Ming Lu

Overseas Chinese Equities

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

<ul>
<li>State Administration for Market Regulation (SAMR) launched an investigation into TCOM.</li>
<li>TCOM has a market share above 65% in the travel market.</li>
<li>We believe SAMR will not ruin TCOM - it just warns TCOM not to kill small companies.</li>
</ul>


State Administration for Market Regulation (SAMR) launched an investigation into TCOM.
TCOM has a market share above 65% in the travel market.
We believe SAMR will not ruin TCOM - it just warns TCOM not to kill small companies.


Trip.com (TCOM, 9961.HK): No Concern for Authorities Investigation

<ul>
<li>Chinese authorities have confirmed an investigation into Trip.com anticompetitive practices</li>
<li>The company could face fines of 1% - 10% of 2025 net revenue (up to US$800 mn)</li>
<li>A less likely outcome could be sweeping changes to the company's business model; AVOID</li>
</ul>


Chinese authorities have confirmed an investigation into Trip.com anticompetitive practices
The company could face fines of 1% - 10% of 2025 net revenue (up to US$800 mn)
A less likely outcome could be sweeping changes to the company's business model; AVOID


Trip.com Subject of Antitrust Investigation | Potentially Faces Large Fine or Forced Change to Model

<ul>
<li>Both domestic and outbound air travel activity have improved in recent months</li>
<li>Chinese carriers are now enjoying unusually high load factors on outbound travel</li>
<li>Trip.com is a laggard vs the airlines, but it doesn't appear cheap to us</li>
</ul>


Both domestic and outbound air travel activity have improved in recent months
Chinese carriers are now enjoying unusually high load factors on outbound travel
Trip.com is a laggard vs the airlines, but it doesn't appear cheap to us


Monthly Chinese Tourism Tracker | Sudden Upturn in Domestic and Outbound Demand  (December 2025)

<ul>
<li>In 3Q25, total revenue increased by 16% YoY with hotel booking up by 18% YoY and transportation commission up by 12% YoY.</li>
<li>Overseas travel continued to recover and consumption shrink does not impact TCOM much.</li>
<li>We believe the stock has an upside of 29% for the next twelve months.</li>
</ul>


In 3Q25, total revenue increased by 16% YoY with hotel booking up by 18% YoY and transportation commission up by 12% YoY.
Overseas travel continued to recover and consumption shrink does not impact TCOM much.
We believe the stock has an upside of 29% for the next twelve months.


Trip.com (TCOM, 9961 HK): 3Q25, Revenue Up by 16%

China

Trip.com Group Ltd. provides online travel agency services. The Company offers mobile applications, hotel reservations, flight ticketing, package tours, corporate travel management, and train ticketing services.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Trip.com (TCOM US)

Trip.com Q425 Results | Strong Top-Line Growth, But Margin Compression Continues | AVOID

Top-line growth accelerated in Q425, but margin compression persisted. Management's poor cost control is frustrating, and an ongoing investigation...

Tracking Traffic

Trip.com (TCOM, 9961.HK): No Concern for Authorities Investigation

SAMR launched an investigation into TCOM. TCOM has a market share above 65% in the travel market. We believe SAMR will not weaken TCOM, but just...

Ming Lu

Trip.com Subject of Antitrust Investigation | Potentially Faces Large Fine or Forced Change to Model

News of an antitrust investigation into Trip.com sent its shares plummeting last week. The company could face fines, changes to existing practices,...

Tracking Traffic

Monthly Chinese Tourism Tracker | Sudden Upturn in Domestic and Outbound Demand (December 2025)

The pace of air travel growth improved markedly in the October-November period, despite weakness in two key outbound markets. Although it's a...

Tracking Traffic

Trip.com (TCOM, 9961 HK): 3Q25, Revenue Up by 16%

In 3Q25, total revenue increased by 16% YoY with hotel booking up by 18% YoY and transportation up by 12% YoY. Overseas travel continued to recover...

Ming Lu

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)