Asia and Global Semiconductor and Tech Research

Andrew Lu

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Y/Y improvement for LCD, PMIC, GaAs RF, gaming card, cooling system, semi equipment&amp;material, semi fab construction, memory, and foundry vendors but more y/y deterioration for WiFi and CMOS sensor vendors</li>
<li>After 6 vendors beating consensus, we might see AI server supply chain, large panel LCD driver, WiFi/networking, and NAND flash vendors in US to report a better than expected 1Q24.</li>
<li>We might see 8"/12" raw wafer (like Shin Etsu, SUMCO , National Silicon Industry, Siltronic AG) vendors in Japan, China, and Germany to report a worse than expected 1Q24.</li>
</ul>


Y/Y improvement for LCD, PMIC, GaAs RF, gaming card, cooling system, semi equipment&amp;material, semi fab construction, memory, and foundry vendors but more y/y deterioration for WiFi and CMOS sensor vendors
After 6 vendors beating consensus, we might see AI server supply chain, large panel LCD driver, WiFi/networking, and NAND flash vendors in US to report a better than expected 1Q24.
We might see 8"/12" raw wafer (like Shin Etsu, SUMCO , National Silicon Industry, Siltronic AG) vendors in Japan, China, and Germany to report a worse than expected 1Q24.


Early Signs from the Reported March/1Q24 Taiwan Semi/Tech Sales

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The changes to a global index in August will be announced pre-market open Thursday and will be implemented at the close of trading on 31 August.</li>
<li>The big market moves since the last rebalance result in many changes with the final number dependent on the day picked to compute market cap and free float market cap.</li>
<li>The forecast adds have outperformed the forecast deletes over the last 1, 2 and 3 months but near-term performance has been far from awesome due to the momentum unwind.</li>
</ul>


The changes to a global index in August will be announced pre-market open Thursday and will be implemented at the close of trading on 31 August.
The big market moves since the last rebalance result in many changes with the final number dependent on the day picked to compute market cap and free float market cap.
The forecast adds have outperformed the forecast deletes over the last 1, 2 and 3 months but near-term performance has been far from awesome due to the momentum unwind.


Global Index: Potential Changes in August for Asia Pac

<ul>
<li>The TIP Taiwan Select High Dividend ETF (00919 TW) tracks the TIP Customized Taiwan Select High Dividend Index and has an AUM of TWD 284bn (US$8.7bn).</li>
<li>We forecast 8 changes a side at the December rebalance with an estimated one-way turnover of around 15.8% and a round-trip trade of around US$2.75bn.</li>
<li>An equal weighted basket of potential inclusions has outperformed an equal weighted basket of potential deletions since beginning September with a pick-up in pace over the last 2-3 weeks.</li>
</ul>


The TIP Taiwan Select High Dividend ETF (00919 TW) tracks the TIP Customized Taiwan Select High Dividend Index and has an AUM of TWD 284bn (US$8.7bn).
We forecast 8 changes a side at the December rebalance with an estimated one-way turnover of around 15.8% and a round-trip trade of around US$2.75bn.
An equal weighted basket of potential inclusions has outperformed an equal weighted basket of potential deletions since beginning September with a pick-up in pace over the last 2-3 weeks.


TIP Customized Taiwan Select High Div Index Rebalance Preview: 32% T/O; US$2.75bn Trade; HUGE Impact

Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Micron's latest results show a clear improvement in the Memory cycle. The company's gross margin increased and guided for a further strong margin increase next quarter.</li>
<li>Micron increased its overall DRAM industry growth forecast while maintaining its NAND flash forecast. Micron reiterated expectations for FY2025E to deliver record revenue for the company, with improving profitability.</li>
<li>Positive news for fallen Memory industry shares -- Within our Memory universe we have Structural Long ratings for Micron Technology (MU US), SK Hynix (000660 KS), and Silicon Motion Technology (SIMO US).</li>
</ul>


Micron's latest results show a clear improvement in the Memory cycle. The company's gross margin increased and guided for a further strong margin increase next quarter.
Micron increased its overall DRAM industry growth forecast while maintaining its NAND flash forecast. Micron reiterated expectations for FY2025E to deliver record revenue for the company, with improving profitability.
Positive news for fallen Memory industry shares -- Within our Memory universe we have Structural Long ratings for Micron Technology (MU US), SK Hynix (000660 KS), and Silicon Motion Technology (SIMO US).


Memory Monitor: Micron Results Show Clear Signs of Memory Market Upswing; DRAM Growth Upgraded

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) (TSM US)

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing)

<ul>
<li>Taiwan Tech Rallies Along With Rebound In Global Tech; Hon Hai, Asustek Top Gainers; KYEC a Top Loser After Announcing China Market Divestment</li>
<li>PC Monitor: The Next Version of MSFT CoPilot Will Be the Killer App for a Global AI PC Upgrade Cycle </li>
<li>ASMedia GDR Early Look - Momentum Has Been Strong, and Raising Would Grow Its Cash Base Almost 6x </li>
</ul>


Taiwan Tech Rallies Along With Rebound In Global Tech; Hon Hai, Asustek Top Gainers; KYEC a Top Loser After Announcing China Market Divestment
PC Monitor: The Next Version of MSFT CoPilot Will Be the Killer App for a Global AI PC Upgrade Cycle 
ASMedia GDR Early Look - Momentum Has Been Strong, and Raising Would Grow Its Cash Base Almost 6x 


Taiwan Tech Weekly: Hon Hai New All-Time Highs; Asustek Soars; Leading Chip Testing Firm Exits China

Taiwan

Phison Electronics Corp. manufactures and markets USB (Universal Serial Bus) flash pen drives, card readers, adapters, flash memory controllers, and integrated circuits (ICs).

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Phison Electronics (8299 TT)

Early Signs from the Reported March/1Q24 Taiwan Semi/Tech Sales

Early Signs from the Reported March/1Q24 Taiwan Semi/Tech Sales; we might see AI server, WiFi/networking, and NAND vendors in US to beat 1Q24 but...

Andrew Lu

Global Index: Potential Changes in August for Asia Pac

The global index changes were announced using D1 as the cutoff. 99% hit rate across Asia Pacific, so no surprises. Big price changes in the stocks...

Brian Freitas

TIP Customized Taiwan Select High Div Index Rebalance Preview: 32% T/O; US$2.75bn Trade; HUGE Impact

We forecast 8 changes a side in December. Estimated one-way turnover is 15.8% with a round-trip trade of US$2.75bn. The impact on the forecast...

Brian Freitas

Memory Monitor: Micron Results Show Clear Signs of Memory Market Upswing; DRAM Growth Upgraded

Micron's latest results show improved margins and growth forecasts, signaling positive news for Memory industry shares.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Taiwan Tech Weekly: Hon Hai New All-Time Highs; Asustek Soars; Leading Chip Testing Firm Exits China

Taiwan tech gains alongside global tech, with Hon Hai and Asustek leading. MSFT's next CoPilot expected to drive AI PC upgrades. ASMedia GDR shows...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

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Early Signs from the Reported March/1Q24 Taiwan Semi/Tech Sales

Early Signs from the Reported March/1Q24 Taiwan Semi/Tech Sales; we might see AI server, WiFi/networking, and NAND vendors in US to beat 1Q24 but...

Andrew Lu

Global Index: Potential Changes in August for Asia Pac

The global index changes were announced using D1 as the cutoff. 99% hit rate across Asia Pacific, so no surprises. Big price changes in the stocks...

Brian Freitas

TIP Customized Taiwan Select High Div Index Rebalance Preview: 32% T/O; US$2.75bn Trade; HUGE Impact

We forecast 8 changes a side in December. Estimated one-way turnover is 15.8% with a round-trip trade of US$2.75bn. The impact on the forecast...

Brian Freitas

Memory Monitor: Micron Results Show Clear Signs of Memory Market Upswing; DRAM Growth Upgraded

​Micron's latest results show improved margins and growth forecasts, signaling positive news for Memory industry shares.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Taiwan Tech Weekly: Hon Hai New All-Time Highs; Asustek Soars; Leading Chip Testing Firm Exits China

​Taiwan tech gains alongside global tech, with Hon Hai and Asustek leading. MSFT's next CoPilot expected to drive AI PC upgrades. ASMedia GDR shows...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Micron's latest results show improved margins and growth forecasts, signaling positive news for Memory industry shares.

Taiwan tech gains alongside global tech, with Hon Hai and Asustek leading. MSFT's next CoPilot expected to drive AI PC upgrades. ASMedia GDR shows...