Founder-CEO & Chief Analyst, Real Estate Foresight

Robert Ciemniak

Founder-CEO & Chief Analyst

Real Estate Foresight

Since 2012, REF has been helping investors with market research, project due diligence, and strategy development. This has ranged from detailed assessments and estimates on distressed developers' project portfolios to market due diligence on specific projects to macro-level questions linked to demand for commodities. The unique combination of the housing markets and developer data from data partner China Index Academy in Beijing, primary research, and technology-powered alternative data collection from public sources result in a valuable content set used in REF analytics and reports.

Predictive Analytics for China Property

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>The May data was weak, though the 12-month Y/Y metrics keep showing improvements, "less negative"; everyone expects more stimulus, a big question is its scope and the extent</li>
<li>The indicators for land sales/acquisitions improved, though, on most metrics in May</li>
<li>May was the third month in a row with a downward revision to some 2022 data</li>
</ul>


The May data was weak, though the 12-month Y/Y metrics keep showing improvements, "less negative"; everyone expects more stimulus, a big question is its scope and the extent
The indicators for land sales/acquisitions improved, though, on most metrics in May
May was the third month in a row with a downward revision to some 2022 data


China Property - Today's Macro Property Data (NBS) For May

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

<ul><li>NBS 2M23 sales value came flattish YoY, in line with our forecast.</li><li>However, it beat China funds ’ expectation and strongly beat foreign funds’expectation, thus driving today’s sector rally.</li><li>Looking at March, we expect even stronger March data (positive sales YoY) as 1) MTD sales of 30 major cities already recorded 24% growth YoY. 2) Our sales leading indicator GAIN was one of the highest in Feb, indicating very promising March. 3) Recent channel check in major cities suggests sales momentum to continue on stabilized property price and historically low mortgage rate. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

NBS 2M23 sales value came flattish YoY, in line with our forecast.However, it beat China funds ’ expectation and strongly beat foreign funds’expectation, thus driving today’s sector rally.Looking at March, we expect even stronger March data (positive sales YoY) as 1) MTD sales of 30 major cities already recorded 24% growth YoY. 2) Our sales leading indicator GAIN was one of the highest in Feb, indicating very promising March. 3) Recent channel check in major cities suggests sales momentum to continue on stabilized property price and historically low mortgage rate. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

China Property Sector – NBS 2M23 data: Strong as expected

<ul><li>We saw another week of strong property data where new home/secondary home sales went up 23%/12% WoW.</li><li>This is in line with our sales leading index GAIN and our upgrade report that sales is more sustainable than what market thinks.</li><li>The solid housing recovery has also accelerated housing construction activities that its construction resumption rate recovered to 84.1%, higher than 2022 already, and only slightly lagging behind the infrastructure (87.3%) and government projects (88.2%). </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

We saw another week of strong property data where new home/secondary home sales went up 23%/12% WoW.This is in line with our sales leading index GAIN and our upgrade report that sales is more sustainable than what market thinks.The solid housing recovery has also accelerated housing construction activities that its construction resumption rate recovered to 84.1%, higher than 2022 already, and only slightly lagging behind the infrastructure (87.3%) and government projects (88.2%). Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

China Property Sector – Property+ Weekly: Sales momentum accelerated on lower tier cities

<ul><li>Feb sales came out at a strong beat both in terms of strength at 30% YoY (cons -5%), but also the timing of turning positive (cons in April).</li><li>We think the momentum would be more sustainable than market expectation as 1) our leading indicator GAIN jumped to the highest since 2021 indicating ST sales would continue to be strong.</li><li>2) Our channel check suggests home buyers are much more than pent-up demand. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Feb sales came out at a strong beat both in terms of strength at 30% YoY (cons -5%), but also the timing of turning positive (cons in April).We think the momentum would be more sustainable than market expectation as 1) our leading indicator GAIN jumped to the highest since 2021 indicating ST sales would continue to be strong.2) Our channel check suggests home buyers are much more than pent-up demand. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

China Property Sector – Feb sales a strong beat; Raise 2023 forecast

Articles from Caixin Global, Caixin Global

Caixin Global

Articles from Caixin Global

Caixin is a media group dedicated to providing financial and business news through periodicals, online content, mobile apps, conferences, books and TV/video programs. Caixin aims to blaze a trail that helps traditional media prosper in the new media age through integrated multimedia platforms.

News from Caixin

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>China’s Charity Law revision aims to make it easier for NGOs to get involved</li><li>Experts quash fears of greater chance of China quake after Turkey</li><li>China’s local governments go on hiring spree to spur growth</li></ul>

China’s Charity Law revision aims to make it easier for NGOs to get involvedExperts quash fears of greater chance of China quake after TurkeyChina’s local governments go on hiring spree to spur growth

CX Daily: China’s Charity Law Revision Aims to Make It Easier for NGOs to Get Involved

China

China Vanke is a prominent real estate developer primarily focused on residential property sales, and is among the top three in China. The company has expanded its business to include investment properties such as commercial retail complexes, long-term leasing apartments, and logistical assets, alongside property management services. Founded in 1984, China Vanke is headquartered in Shenzhen, Guangdong, China.

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China Vanke (2202 HK)

China Property - Today's Macro Property Data (NBS) For May

China released the official macro-property data today. We dissect the key metrics and read out the data, addressing the key data caveats.

Robert Ciemniak

China Property Sector – NBS 2M23 data: Strong as expected

NBS 2M23 sales value came flattish YoY, in line with our forecast. However, it beat China funds ’ expectation and strongly beat foreign...

CMB International

China Property Sector – Property+ Weekly: Sales momentum accelerated on lower tier cities

This is in line with our sales leading index GAIN and our upgrade report that sales is more sustainable than what market thinks.

CMB International

China Property Sector – Feb sales a strong beat; Raise 2023 forecast

Feb sales came out at a strong beat both in terms of strength at 30% YoY (cons -5%), but also the timing of turning positive (cons in April).

CMB International

CX Daily: China’s Charity Law Revision Aims to Make It Easier for NGOs to Get Involved

China’s Charity Law revision aims to make it easier for NGOs to get involved. Experts quash fears of greater chance of China quake after Turkey

Caixin Global

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