Japan Specialist

Mark Chadwick

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>OVERSEAS.  EUR STOXX600 -1% as hikes, recession fears, overbought markets sap risk;  US-China Tensions Eases after Blinken China Trip; Ford Chairman Says US still can't Compete with China on EVs</li>
<li>JAPAN. NKY Futs -0.2% vs Cash; Japan likely starts on backfoot US out and European Sell off;  Interest in investing in Japan spreading to start-ups; Uniqlo headwinds-China, China</li>
<li>NUGGET. Nikkei reported that Japanese Retail (Mrs Watanabe) fx traders turned momentum in FX; Watch for when that happens in Equities...</li>
</ul>


OVERSEAS.  EUR STOXX600 -1% as hikes, recession fears, overbought markets sap risk;  US-China Tensions Eases after Blinken China Trip; Ford Chairman Says US still can't Compete with China on EVs
JAPAN. NKY Futs -0.2% vs Cash; Japan likely starts on backfoot US out and European Sell off;  Interest in investing in Japan spreading to start-ups; Uniqlo headwinds-China, China
NUGGET. Nikkei reported that Japanese Retail (Mrs Watanabe) fx traders turned momentum in FX; Watch for when that happens in Equities...


Ohayo Japan| Europe Sells Off; NUGGET: Mrs Watanabe-Now Momentum FX; Watch for Retail Equity Shift

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

iShares MSCI ACWI ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>The MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), ACWI ex-US (ACWX-US), EAFE (EFA-US), and EM (EEM-US) are all reversing topside their 2-month downtrends.</li>
<li>Despite this being a bullish short-term development, we still expect $93 to cap upside on the ACWI-US, leaving about 4-5% upside from here (at time of writing)</li>
<li>As a result, we would use any further strength as an opportunity to get more defensive. Actionable Themes: REA-AU, GFL-CA, GFL-US, Consumer Staples, Health Care, and Gold Miners</li>
</ul>


The MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), ACWI ex-US (ACWX-US), EAFE (EFA-US), and EM (EEM-US) are all reversing topside their 2-month downtrends.
Despite this being a bullish short-term development, we still expect $93 to cap upside on the ACWI-US, leaving about 4-5% upside from here (at time of writing)
As a result, we would use any further strength as an opportunity to get more defensive. Actionable Themes: REA-AU, GFL-CA, GFL-US, Consumer Staples, Health Care, and Gold Miners


Shift To Defensives as $ACWI Makes Push for $93; Remain Overweight Europe; Opptys in China/HK, Japan

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets, JapanConsuming

Michael Causton

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets

Real Insight on Japanese Consumer Markets

JapanConsuming

JapanConsuming is a specialist research firm producing intelligence on Japanese retail and consumer markets. Founded in 2000, JapanConsuming has become the leading provider of insights on Japanese retailers and consumer trends to retailers, brands, government agencies and investors. As well as a highly regarded monthly report on the market, JapanConsuming produces in-depth reports on retail sectors, seminars on key trends and telephone consulting to investors on trends and retailers.

JapanConsuming was founded by Michael Causton and Roy Larke. 

<ul>
<li>Drugstores were already the fastest growing format before Covid and the health scare only improved their performance further.</li>
<li>Several of the largest chains are now powerful players in food, using their non-food base to shake up the supermarket sector in ways that Japan has never seen before.</li>
<li>Being price-led, inflation is only helping them along, with a much greater capacity to hold down prices than mainstream supermarkets.</li>
</ul>


Drugstores were already the fastest growing format before Covid and the health scare only improved their performance further.
Several of the largest chains are now powerful players in food, using their non-food base to shake up the supermarket sector in ways that Japan has never seen before.
Being price-led, inflation is only helping them along, with a much greater capacity to hold down prices than mainstream supermarkets.


Discount Drugstores Challenging Japanese Supermarkets

Asia L/S Equity PM/Macro/Thematic Idea Generation

Rikki Malik

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>After initial good absolute and relative performance, the stock has corrected with the oil and gas complex</li>
<li>Q1 results show the company is exceeding its plan as higher prices impact the P&amp;L positively</li>
<li>The highest commodity weightings across the major trading houses mean this will be a winner as the next leg of the commodity bull market unfolds</li>
</ul>


After initial good absolute and relative performance, the stock has corrected with the oil and gas complex
Q1 results show the company is exceeding its plan as higher prices impact the P&amp;L positively
The highest commodity weightings across the major trading houses mean this will be a winner as the next leg of the commodity bull market unfolds


Gas Pains, Metal Gains: Mitsubishi's Bumpy Road to the Next Commodity Cycle

<ul>
<li>OVERSEAS:  US MLK Holidays - World markets directionless;  US Equity Futs flat; European Markets bid on Inflation peak;  BOJ decision to lead markets this week.</li>
<li>JAPAN:  NKY Futures +0.2% vs Cash ; USDJPY flat at 128.52 ; BOJ speculation dominates local headlines;  Kuroda heads to Davos = no fireworks? ;  Dec Machine Tools orders +1%YoY</li>
<li>DAILY NUGGET:  Fast Retailing and Sustainability: Set to introduce a new repair service in its domestic stores.</li>
</ul>


OVERSEAS:  US MLK Holidays - World markets directionless;  US Equity Futs flat; European Markets bid on Inflation peak;  BOJ decision to lead markets this week.
JAPAN:  NKY Futures +0.2% vs Cash ; USDJPY flat at 128.52 ; BOJ speculation dominates local headlines;  Kuroda heads to Davos = no fireworks? ;  Dec Machine Tools orders +1%YoY
DAILY NUGGET:  Fast Retailing and Sustainability: Set to introduce a new repair service in its domestic stores.


Good Morning Japan |US Off = Directionless; BOJ in Focus +2trn JGB Buying; Kuroda off to Davos

Japan

ITOCHU Corporation is a general trading firm handling textiles, wood, machinery, metals, food, chemicals, construction materials, commodities, and energy related products such as oil and gas. The Company operates around the world. Itochu diversifies by operating in satellite communication and data communication businesses.

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Itochu Corp (8001 JP)

Ohayo Japan| Europe Sells Off; NUGGET: Mrs Watanabe-Now Momentum FX; Watch for Retail Equity Shift

Europe DOWN; US out; NKY Futs -0.2% vs Cash; Japan likely starts on backfoot US out and European Sell off; Interest in investing in Japan...

Mark Chadwick

Shift To Defensives as $ACWI Makes Push for $93; Remain Overweight Europe; Opptys in China/HK, Japan

$ACWI, $ACWX, $EFA, and $EEM all reversing topside their 2-month downtrends. Despite this bullish short-term development, we still expect $93 to...

Vermilion Research

Discount Drugstores Challenging Japanese Supermarkets

Japan's supermarkets are facing unprecedented challenges from new competition in e-commerce but especially drugstores. We highlight the winners in...

Michael Causton

Gas Pains, Metal Gains: Mitsubishi's Bumpy Road to the Next Commodity Cycle

Stock corrected with oil and gas complex, but Q1 results show company exceeding plan as higher prices impact P&L positively; poised to win in...

Rikki Malik

Good Morning Japan |US Off = Directionless; BOJ in Focus +2trn JGB Buying; Kuroda off to Davos

NKY Futures +0.2% vs Cash ; USDJPY flat; BOJ speculation dominates as Kuroda heads to Davos ; Dec Machine Tools +1%YoY. Global stealth rally...

Mark Chadwick

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Ohayo Japan| Europe Sells Off; NUGGET: Mrs Watanabe-Now Momentum FX; Watch for Retail Equity Shift

Europe DOWN; US out; NKY Futs -0.2% vs Cash; Japan likely starts on backfoot US out and European Sell off; Interest in investing in Japan...

Mark Chadwick

Shift To Defensives as $ACWI Makes Push for $93; Remain Overweight Europe; Opptys in China/HK, Japan

$ACWI, $ACWX, $EFA, and $EEM all reversing topside their 2-month downtrends. Despite this bullish short-term development, we still expect $93 to...

Vermilion Research

Discount Drugstores Challenging Japanese Supermarkets

Japan's supermarkets are facing unprecedented challenges from new competition in e-commerce but especially drugstores. We highlight the winners in...

Michael Causton

Gas Pains, Metal Gains: Mitsubishi's Bumpy Road to the Next Commodity Cycle

​Stock corrected with oil and gas complex, but Q1 results show company exceeding plan as higher prices impact P&L positively; poised to win in...

Rikki Malik

Good Morning Japan |US Off = Directionless; BOJ in Focus +2trn JGB Buying; Kuroda off to Davos

NKY Futures +0.2% vs Cash ; USDJPY flat; BOJ speculation dominates as Kuroda heads to Davos ; Dec Machine Tools +1%YoY. Global stealth rally...

Mark Chadwick

Stock corrected with oil and gas complex, but Q1 results show company exceeding plan as higher prices impact P&L positively; poised to win in...