Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mitsubishi-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20668:1" rel="noopener">Mitsubishi Corp (8058 JP)</a> yesterday announced earnings, forecast for FY23, higher dividend guidance, and a buyback. The headline number is 6% of shares and ¥300bn (which is nearer 4% now).</li>
<li>¥200bn of that ¥300bn is actually FY2022 "Additional Return" tacked onto a ¥100bn buyback for this year (FY23).  </li>
<li>As is often the case, <strong>Shareholder Structure Matters</strong>. Because Berkshire Hathaway owns a large chunk of stock (7.4% according to interviews), that carves out a fair chunk not for sale.</li>
</ul>



Mitsubishi Corp (8058 JP) yesterday announced earnings, forecast for FY23, higher dividend guidance, and a buyback. The headline number is 6% of shares and ¥300bn (which is nearer 4% now).
¥200bn of that ¥300bn is actually FY2022 "Additional Return" tacked onto a ¥100bn buyback for this year (FY23).  
As is often the case, Shareholder Structure Matters. Because Berkshire Hathaway owns a large chunk of stock (7.4% according to interviews), that carves out a fair chunk not for sale.


MitCorp (8058 JP) Earnings and Buyback - Shareholder Structure Matters

<ul>
<li>On 3 April mid-day, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mitsubishi-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20668:1" rel="noopener">Mitsubishi Corp (8058 JP)</a> announced its <a href="https://www.mitsubishicorp.com/jp/en/news/release/2025/files/mcpr250403ge_2.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">FY25 earnings guidance and new "Shareholder Return Strategy"</a>, <a href="https://www.mitsubishicorp.com/jp/en/news/release/2025/files/mcpr250403he_1.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">a ¥1 trillion buyback</a>, and its "<a href="https://www.mitsubishicorp.com/jp/en/about/plan/pdf/2027_250403.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Corporate Strategy 2027</a>" Mid-Term Management Plan.</li>
<li>The FY25 forecast is for a third consecutive decline in underlying operating cashflow, but a hike in dividend from ¥100 to ¥110 and a ¥1trln share buyback, including ¥230bn tender.</li>
<li>The combination of dividend and buyback should be 15% of market cap over the next 12mos. And I expect Warren Buffett will consider buying dips.</li>
</ul>


On 3 April mid-day, Mitsubishi Corp (8058 JP) announced its FY25 earnings guidance and new "Shareholder Return Strategy", a ¥1 trillion buyback, and its "Corporate Strategy 2027" Mid-Term Management Plan.
The FY25 forecast is for a third consecutive decline in underlying operating cashflow, but a hike in dividend from ¥100 to ¥110 and a ¥1trln share buyback, including ¥230bn tender.
The combination of dividend and buyback should be 15% of market cap over the next 12mos. And I expect Warren Buffett will consider buying dips.


MitCorp (8058) BIG Buyback - Share Demand Will Help Weather The Storm

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets, JapanConsuming

Michael Causton

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets

Real Insight on Japanese Consumer Markets

JapanConsuming

JapanConsuming is a specialist research firm producing intelligence on Japanese retail and consumer markets. Founded in 2000, JapanConsuming has become the leading provider of insights on Japanese retailers and consumer trends to retailers, brands, government agencies and investors. As well as a highly regarded monthly report on the market, JapanConsuming produces in-depth reports on retail sectors, seminars on key trends and telephone consulting to investors on trends and retailers.

JapanConsuming was founded by Michael Causton and Roy Larke. 

<ul>
<li>ACT's bid for Seven &amp; I has been withdrawn and Seven will be better off long-term because of it – although we detail here how competitors are catching up fast.</li>
<li>Once York HD has been split off, the company can at last focus on its crucial local CVS operation: Japan makes up 25% of revenues but almost 50% of profits.</li>
<li>The potential is real and we are bullish on the long-term value but we would have been more bullish if the former CEO Ryuichi Isaka was still on board.</li>
</ul>


ACT's bid for Seven &amp; I has been withdrawn and Seven will be better off long-term because of it – although we detail here how competitors are catching up fast.
Once York HD has been split off, the company can at last focus on its crucial local CVS operation: Japan makes up 25% of revenues but almost 50% of profits.
The potential is real and we are bullish on the long-term value but we would have been more bullish if the former CEO Ryuichi Isaka was still on board.


The Final ACT Comedy of Errors Opens the Way for Real Value to Emerge at Seven & I

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Consumer distribution has been transformed since 2020 through accelerated concentration of market share. While some has come about through organic growth, the real drivers have been M&amp;A and MBOs. </li>
<li>The result is a realignment of the retail leader board as companies like PPI, Welcia and Trial buy their way to the top, while others, notably Seven &amp; I, shrink.</li>
<li>Here we identify the retail leaders in driving consolidation going forward, and the intensifying pressure on both smaller retailers and the wholesalers that supply them.</li>
</ul>


Consumer distribution has been transformed since 2020 through accelerated concentration of market share. While some has come about through organic growth, the real drivers have been M&amp;A and MBOs. 
The result is a realignment of the retail leader board as companies like PPI, Welcia and Trial buy their way to the top, while others, notably Seven &amp; I, shrink.
Here we identify the retail leaders in driving consolidation going forward, and the intensifying pressure on both smaller retailers and the wholesalers that supply them.


[Japan M&A] Who Owns Who: The Growing Concentration of Power in Japanese Consumer Markets

<ul>
<li>Yesterday a news article from Bloomberg suggested 7&amp;i was "considering" an MBO. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/seven-i-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1041:1" rel="noopener">Seven &amp; I Holdings (3382 JP)</a> later confirmed they had received a non-binding proposal from ITO Junro/family.</li>
<li>The initial number was ¥9trln. If market cap? High. If EV, too low. That would have implied a price just over the first "grossly inadequate" ACT price.</li>
<li>There is a lot we don't know. This changes the landscape. It probably shifts the range trade, but it will shift more when we get more clarity on ITO-san's price.</li>
</ul>


Yesterday a news article from Bloomberg suggested 7&amp;i was "considering" an MBO. Seven &amp; I Holdings (3382 JP) later confirmed they had received a non-binding proposal from ITO Junro/family.
The initial number was ¥9trln. If market cap? High. If EV, too low. That would have implied a price just over the first "grossly inadequate" ACT price.
There is a lot we don't know. This changes the landscape. It probably shifts the range trade, but it will shift more when we get more clarity on ITO-san's price.


7&I (3382 JP) - An ITO Family MBO? With Itochu? At ¥9trln? Maybe. Information Is Scarce

Japan

Mitsubishi Corporation is a general trading company.  The Company has business groups such as New Business Initiatives, IT & Electronics, Fuels, Metals, Machinery, Chemicals, Living Essentials, and Professional Services.  Mitsubishi diversifies by satellite communications through a joint venture.

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Mitsubishi Corp (8058 JP)

MitCorp (8058 JP) Earnings and Buyback - Shareholder Structure Matters

MitCorp announced good earnings, a lower FY23 forecast (expected as commodity-related over-profitability falls back), and a large buyback. It is...

Travis Lundy

The Final ACT Comedy of Errors Opens the Way for Real Value to Emerge at Seven & I

ACT's bid for Seven & I withdrawn, company to focus on crucial CVS operation in Japan for long-term growth, potential vast but more bullish if...

Michael Causton

[Japan M&A] Who Owns Who: The Growing Concentration of Power in Japanese Consumer Markets

Consumer distribution has shifted post-2020, with market concentration driven by M&A and MBOs. We identify the leaders of this consolidation,...

Michael Causton

7&I (3382 JP) - An ITO Family MBO? With Itochu? At ¥9trln? Maybe. Information Is Scarce

An MBO for Seven & i by the ITO family? Maybe. And the number was big (¥3450/sh), unless it was small (¥2,300/sh), and we don't know which. But it...

Travis Lundy

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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MitCorp (8058 JP) Earnings and Buyback - Shareholder Structure Matters

MitCorp announced good earnings, a lower FY23 forecast (expected as commodity-related over-profitability falls back), and a large buyback. It is...

Travis Lundy

MitCorp (8058) BIG Buyback - Share Demand Will Help Weather The Storm

Stocks globally hit by Donald Trump's tariffs, MitCorp is a trader, getting hurt. But MitCorp product lines are essentially globally fungible, and...

Travis Lundy

The Final ACT Comedy of Errors Opens the Way for Real Value to Emerge at Seven & I

​ACT's bid for Seven & I withdrawn, company to focus on crucial CVS operation in Japan for long-term growth, potential vast but more bullish if...

Michael Causton

[Japan M&A] Who Owns Who: The Growing Concentration of Power in Japanese Consumer Markets

​Consumer distribution has shifted post-2020, with market concentration driven by M&A and MBOs. We identify the leaders of this consolidation,...

Michael Causton

7&I (3382 JP) - An ITO Family MBO? With Itochu? At ¥9trln? Maybe. Information Is Scarce

An MBO for Seven & i by the ITO family? Maybe. And the number was big (¥3450/sh), unless it was small (¥2,300/sh), and we don't know which. But it...

Travis Lundy

ACT's bid for Seven & I withdrawn, company to focus on crucial CVS operation in Japan for long-term growth, potential vast but more bullish if...

Consumer distribution has shifted post-2020, with market concentration driven by M&A and MBOs. We identify the leaders of this consolidation,...