Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets, JapanConsuming

Michael Causton

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets

Real Insight on Japanese Consumer Markets

JapanConsuming

JapanConsuming is a specialist research firm producing intelligence on Japanese retail and consumer markets. Founded in 2000, JapanConsuming has become the leading provider of insights on Japanese retailers and consumer trends to retailers, brands, government agencies and investors. As well as a highly regarded monthly report on the market, JapanConsuming produces in-depth reports on retail sectors, seminars on key trends and telephone consulting to investors on trends and retailers.

JapanConsuming was founded by Michael Causton and Roy Larke. 

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Drugstores were already the fastest growing format before Covid and the health scare only improved their performance further.</li>
<li>Several of the largest chains are now powerful players in food, using their non-food base to shake up the supermarket sector in ways that Japan has never seen before.</li>
<li>Being price-led, inflation is only helping them along, with a much greater capacity to hold down prices than mainstream supermarkets.</li>
</ul>


Drugstores were already the fastest growing format before Covid and the health scare only improved their performance further.
Several of the largest chains are now powerful players in food, using their non-food base to shake up the supermarket sector in ways that Japan has never seen before.
Being price-led, inflation is only helping them along, with a much greater capacity to hold down prices than mainstream supermarkets.


Discount Drugstores Challenging Japanese Supermarkets

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Every year it's the same trade. But it isn't really. But it kinda is. This year it is Wednesday and Thursday. There are risks to the analysis - notably allocation.</li>
<li>But, ceteris paribus, it is still possibly a ¥1,580,876,450,407 buying spree to take place on one day into the close later this month. Or something close to it.</li>
<li>And for a two-day period, over the last ten years, the average return is 1.60% on these two days with a 9:1 win ratio. Lots of angles here.</li>
</ul>


Every year it's the same trade. But it isn't really. But it kinda is. This year it is Wednesday and Thursday. There are risks to the analysis - notably allocation.
But, ceteris paribus, it is still possibly a ¥1,580,876,450,407 buying spree to take place on one day into the close later this month. Or something close to it.
And for a two-day period, over the last ten years, the average return is 1.60% on these two days with a 9:1 win ratio. Lots of angles here.


The BIG March 2023 "Wednesday Thursday Trade"

Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Having conducted several acquisitions and reinvested most of the operating cashflows into building its overseas business base, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fuji-oil-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4035:1" rel="noopener">Fuji Oil Holdings (2607 JP)</a> seems ready to unleash its earnings potential.</li>
<li>There could be more than a 100% upside to Fuji Oil shares if ROE returns to the historical median of 9% in the next few years.</li>
<li>Therefore, if <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/itochu-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18448:1" rel="noopener">Itochu Corp (8001 JP)</a> has plans to takeover Fuji-Oil, the current price and the position in the business-cycle present the best opportunity to buy-out Fuji-Oil at a bargain.</li>
</ul>


Having conducted several acquisitions and reinvested most of the operating cashflows into building its overseas business base, Fuji Oil Holdings (2607 JP) seems ready to unleash its earnings potential.
There could be more than a 100% upside to Fuji Oil shares if ROE returns to the historical median of 9% in the next few years.
Therefore, if Itochu Corp (8001 JP) has plans to takeover Fuji-Oil, the current price and the position in the business-cycle present the best opportunity to buy-out Fuji-Oil at a bargain.


Fuji Oil: Probably The Last Chance For Itochu to Scoop Up Fuji Oil at a Bargain

<ul>
<li>The convenience store sector was one of the worst hit by a downturn in sales during the early pandemic, but all three major chains have implemented changes and improvements. </li>
<li>Results for the first three quarters of FY2022 show that the big companies are almost all trading above 2019 levels already.</li>
<li>While top line growth at home will be increasingly hard to come by in a saturated sector, innovations will help boost same-store sales a little and profit a bit more.</li>
</ul>


The convenience store sector was one of the worst hit by a downturn in sales during the early pandemic, but all three major chains have implemented changes and improvements. 
Results for the first three quarters of FY2022 show that the big companies are almost all trading above 2019 levels already.
While top line growth at home will be increasingly hard to come by in a saturated sector, innovations will help boost same-store sales a little and profit a bit more.


Japanese Convenience Stores: Back with a Plan but Muted Growth Ahead

<ul>
<li>Descente has improved profitability since being taken over by Itochu three years ago but much of the growth has come from overseas. </li>
<li>The Descente brand remains weak in Japan but Itochu has plans to rebuild the eponymous label by splitting it into two while creating several new brands.</li>
<li>The plans should help recover momentum in Japan and drive further expansion in China and even into Europe and the US.</li>
</ul>


Descente has improved profitability since being taken over by Itochu three years ago but much of the growth has come from overseas. 
The Descente brand remains weak in Japan but Itochu has plans to rebuild the eponymous label by splitting it into two while creating several new brands.
The plans should help recover momentum in Japan and drive further expansion in China and even into Europe and the US.


Japan

ITOCHU Corporation is a general trading firm handling textiles, wood, machinery, metals, food, chemicals, construction materials, commodities, and energy related products such as oil and gas. The Company operates around the world. Itochu diversifies by operating in satellite communication and data communication businesses.

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Itochu Corp (8001 JP)

Discount Drugstores Challenging Japanese Supermarkets

Japan's supermarkets are facing unprecedented challenges from new competition in e-commerce but especially drugstores. We highlight the winners in...

Michael Causton

The BIG March 2023 "Wednesday Thursday Trade"

This year, there is a US$12bn buy to do on 29 March at the close. Historically, performance is pretty good both on a 2-day period, then slumps....

Travis Lundy

Fuji Oil: Probably The Last Chance For Itochu to Scoop Up Fuji Oil at a Bargain

If Itochu has plans to takeover Fuji Oil sometime in the medium term, we think the current price and its position in the business cycle present the...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Japanese Convenience Stores: Back with a Plan but Muted Growth Ahead

Japan's convenience store have rebounded strongly since the pandemic. Although the long-term outlook for growth is muted due to saturation,...

Michael Causton

Descente Puts on Some Pace

Japanese outdoor brands are on a roll. Descente, now part of the Itochu empire, is rebuilding its brand at home and overseas, with significant...

Michael Causton

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