Korea / Special Situations, Clepsydra Capital

Sanghyun Park

Korea / Special Situations

Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing

Clepsydra Capital

Investigate special situations, pairs, and index rebalancing trades in Korea.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>From a trading perspective, we should pay attention to the KOSPI 200 corporate actions in Hyundai Department Group's demerger events, as both companies are KOSPI 200 constituents.</li>
<li>Hyundai Green Food's surviving company won't beat the cutoff, resulting in a KOSPI 200 constituent change on April 10. Samyang Foods will be a new addition.</li>
<li>Even the size of KOSPI 200 ETFs that will likely go into mechanical trading on April 10 will cause a significant price impact from a day trading perspective.</li>
</ul>


From a trading perspective, we should pay attention to the KOSPI 200 corporate actions in Hyundai Department Group's demerger events, as both companies are KOSPI 200 constituents.
Hyundai Green Food's surviving company won't beat the cutoff, resulting in a KOSPI 200 constituent change on April 10. Samyang Foods will be a new addition.
Even the size of KOSPI 200 ETFs that will likely go into mechanical trading on April 10 will cause a significant price impact from a day trading perspective.


KOSPI 200 Ad-Hoc Change: Hyundai Greenfood Out & Samyang Foods Fresh Buy-In on April 10

<ul>
<li>Juice for cash &amp; carry arbitrage doesn't seem like much. Several names in contango, but the basis widening isn't at a sufficiently arb-tradable level.</li>
<li>Reverse cash &amp; carry isn't all that attractive either, but it certainly does offer more juice, even with borrow fees. Ssangyong C&amp;E, SKT, Shinhan, and KB deserve our attention.</li>
<li>A bit uncertain is whether the pattern of "LONG Spot until ex-dividend and Conversion to Short" through cash &amp; carry will repeat itself this time.</li>
</ul>


Juice for cash &amp; carry arbitrage doesn't seem like much. Several names in contango, but the basis widening isn't at a sufficiently arb-tradable level.
Reverse cash &amp; carry isn't all that attractive either, but it certainly does offer more juice, even with borrow fees. Ssangyong C&amp;E, SKT, Shinhan, and KB deserve our attention.
A bit uncertain is whether the pattern of "LONG Spot until ex-dividend and Conversion to Short" through cash &amp; carry will repeat itself this time.


3Q Dividend Estimates of Those with SSF for Cash & Carry Arb in Korea

<ul>
<li>The KOSPI 200 June Review will have a total of 13 float rate changes: 11 increases and 2 reductions.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kakaobank-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33501:1" rel="noopener">Kakao Bank (323410)</a> will experience the biggest change, followed by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hmm-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13494:1" rel="noopener">HMM (011200)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/krafton-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28956:1" rel="noopener"> Krafton Inc (259960)</a>. The float rate of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hdc-hyundai-development-co-engineering-construction" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27397:1" rel="noopener">HDC Hyundai Development (294870)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/doosan-infracore-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3982:1" rel="noopener">Doosan Infracore (042670)</a> will decrease.</li>
<li>
Kakao Bank and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kakao-pay-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29675:1" rel="noopener">Kakao Pay (377300)</a> have the most significant passive impact. And <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lg-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6653:1" rel="noopener">LG Corp (003550)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/woori-financial-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27995:1" rel="noopener">Woori Financial Group (316140)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/krafton-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28956:1" rel="noopener"> Krafton Inc (259960)</a> are also worth noting.</li>
</ul>


The KOSPI 200 June Review will have a total of 13 float rate changes: 11 increases and 2 reductions.

Kakao Bank (323410) will experience the biggest change, followed by HMM (011200) and  Krafton Inc (259960). The float rate of HDC Hyundai Development (294870) and Doosan Infracore (042670) will decrease.

Kakao Bank and Kakao Pay (377300) have the most significant passive impact. And LG Corp (003550), Woori Financial Group (316140), and  Krafton Inc (259960) are also worth noting.


KOSPI 200 Constituents with a Float Rate Change: 11 Increases & 2 Reductions

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Equity Bottom-Up

HDC Hyundai Development Co-Engineering & Construction / Equity Bottom-Up

HDC Hyundai Development Co-Engineering & Construction (294870 KS)

HDC Hyundai Development Co-Engineering & Construction

<ul>
<li>On 28 January, the government (Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport) announced that it has recommended the heaviest punishment of the cancellation of the construction license for HDC Hyundai Development.</li>
<li>Seoul city government said it will make a decision on the fate of HDC Hyundai Development within six months.</li>
<li>Rather than a complete, permanent cancellation of the company's business license, a more likely scenario is about 6 to 12 months of temporary business operation suspension, in our view. </li>
</ul>


On 28 January, the government (Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport) announced that it has recommended the heaviest punishment of the cancellation of the construction license for HDC Hyundai Development.
Seoul city government said it will make a decision on the fate of HDC Hyundai Development within six months.
Rather than a complete, permanent cancellation of the company's business license, a more likely scenario is about 6 to 12 months of temporary business operation suspension, in our view. 


HDC Hyundai Development: Permanent Business License Cancellation or Temporary Business Suspension?

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>Nine constituents will likely face an increase in the float rate: five stocks for the sale of the majority shareholder's shares and four names for the IPO lockup release.</li>
<li>Kakao Bank (6.35x), LG Corp (003550 KS) (2.62x), Krafton (2.09x), and Woori Financial Group (316140 KS) (1.74x) are expected to have the most significant impact.</li>
<li>In general, float rate changes show price movement by passive flow similar to new changes (adds/deletes). So, we need to consider gradually building up positions two months before the rebalancing.</li>
</ul>


Nine constituents will likely face an increase in the float rate: five stocks for the sale of the majority shareholder's shares and four names for the IPO lockup release.
Kakao Bank (6.35x), LG Corp (003550 KS) (2.62x), Krafton (2.09x), and Woori Financial Group (316140 KS) (1.74x) are expected to have the most significant impact.
In general, float rate changes show price movement by passive flow similar to new changes (adds/deletes). So, we need to consider gradually building up positions two months before the rebalancing.


KOSPI 200 Index Rebalancing: Constituents Subject to Float Rate Increase

South Korea

Hanssem Co., Ltd. manufactures kitchen furniture.  The Company's products include kitchen sinks, kitchen cabinets, dining tables and chairs, and kitchen accessories.  Hanssem also designs and manufactures interior products, such as sofas, bedsteads, closets, drawers, lamps, bathroom and office furniture.

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Hanssem Co Ltd (009240 KS)

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KOSPI 200 Constituents with a Float Rate Change: 11 Increases & 2 Reductions

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Douglas Kim

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