Senior Credit Analyst, Lucror Analytics

Trung Nguyen

Senior Credit Analyst

High Yield Experts

Lucror Analytics

Lucror Analytics is a leading credit and ESG research specialist and a provider of technology solutions for differentiated fixed income strategies. Our roots are in bottom-up fundamental credit analysis with a specialization in high yield corporate credits from Europe, Asia and Latin America. We are one of few research specialists integrating ESG considerations with fundamental credit research through a dedicated ESG platform. Our ESG assessment covers five key criteria: Disclosure, E,S, & G Pillars, Controversies, ESG Impact on Credit and ESG Momentum.

Recognizing the importance and value-add of Factor Investing in fixed income, Lucror developed the Smart Quant Navigator (SQN), an intuitive platform that helps clients devise and implement factor-based strategies ranging from pure quant to active fundamental, with integrated ESG.

Our company has been at the forefront of developments in the fixed income markets, identifying opportunities and consistently delivering new products and value-adding solutions to clients. Lucror has close relationships with the largest and most reputable asset managers, family offices, hedge funds, investment and wealth managers globally.

Credit

<ul>
<li>In today's Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: JSW Steel</li>
<li>UST yields fell yesterday, led by the front end and belly, as weaker than projected ADP employment data further bolstered Fed easing expectations. The UST curve bull steepened, with the yield on the 2Y UST down 7 bps to 3.54%, while that on the 10Y UST declined 5 bps to 4.10%.</li>
<li>Equities climbed for the fourth day, with the market remaining upbeat despite the US government shutdown. The S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq rose 0.3% and 0.4% to 6,711 and 22,755, respectively.</li>
</ul>


In today's Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: JSW Steel
UST yields fell yesterday, led by the front end and belly, as weaker than projected ADP employment data further bolstered Fed easing expectations. The UST curve bull steepened, with the yield on the 2Y UST down 7 bps to 3.54%, while that on the 10Y UST declined 5 bps to 4.10%.
Equities climbed for the fourth day, with the market remaining upbeat despite the US government shutdown. The S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq rose 0.3% and 0.4% to 6,711 and 22,755, respectively.


Global Materials | Industrials | Commodities

Rahul Jain

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>BPSL JV gives JFE a scalable India platform, shifting long-term growth away from a stagnant Japan market.</li>
<li>Balance-Sheet impact is manageable, with optional liquidity from the ¥500 bn JSW stake.</li>
<li>Valuation deeply discounted at 0.5× P/B and US$525/t despite rising mix, India optionality, and multi-year earnings normalization.</li>
</ul>


BPSL JV gives JFE a scalable India platform, shifting long-term growth away from a stagnant Japan market.
Balance-Sheet impact is manageable, with optional liquidity from the ¥500 bn JSW stake.
Valuation deeply discounted at 0.5× P/B and US$525/t despite rising mix, India optionality, and multi-year earnings normalization.


JFE Holdings: India JV Resets Long-Term Growth Path; Deep Value with Structural Upside

<ul>
<li>On 18 Aug 2025, JSW and POSCO agreed to explore a 6mt steel JV in Odisha under a 50:50 structure.</li>
<li>JSW to reach 51.5mt by FY31 via Indian expansions; POSCO to hit 52mt by 2030 through green steel upgrades in Korea and overseas growth.</li>
<li>Strategic Positive: The JV blends JSW’s domestic scale with POSCO’s technology and global network, accelerating India’s steel hub ambitions.</li>
</ul>


On 18 Aug 2025, JSW and POSCO agreed to explore a 6mt steel JV in Odisha under a 50:50 structure.
JSW to reach 51.5mt by FY31 via Indian expansions; POSCO to hit 52mt by 2030 through green steel upgrades in Korea and overseas growth.
Strategic Positive: The JV blends JSW’s domestic scale with POSCO’s technology and global network, accelerating India’s steel hub ambitions.


JSW Steel & POSCO Sign HoA for 6mt JV in India

<ul>
<li>Recent Results: Q1 EBITDA surged 38% YoY to ₹7,576 Cr, driven by volume ramp-up, improved product mix, and lower coking coal costs.</li>
<li>FY26 Guidance: Company maintains production at 30.5 mt and sales at 29.2 mt, reflecting confidence in its ramp-up and downstream expansion roadmap.</li>
<li>Valuation &amp; Growth: Trading at ~18× FY27E P/E and ~7× EV/EBITDA—above global peers—justified by projected 20% EBITDA and 23% EPS growth into FY27.</li>
</ul>


Recent Results: Q1 EBITDA surged 38% YoY to ₹7,576 Cr, driven by volume ramp-up, improved product mix, and lower coking coal costs.
FY26 Guidance: Company maintains production at 30.5 mt and sales at 29.2 mt, reflecting confidence in its ramp-up and downstream expansion roadmap.
Valuation &amp; Growth: Trading at ~18× FY27E P/E and ~7× EV/EBITDA—above global peers—justified by projected 20% EBITDA and 23% EPS growth into FY27.


JSW Steel (NSE: JSWSTEEL) – Strong Q1 Beat, Confident FY26 Guidance, Premium Valuation

<ul>
<li>Volume: JSW Steel reported 7.26 Mnt of crude steel production in Q1 FY26, up 14% YoY, despite seasonal and maintenance-related disruptions.</li>
<li>Expansion: The company is on track to scale up its capacity from 35.7 MTPA to 43.4 MTPA by FY28, led by ramp-ups at Vijayanagar, Dolvi, and greenfield Odisha.</li>
<li>BPSL: Legal clarity on the BPSL acquisition remains pending, though operations have been successfully ramped up to 4.5 MTPA under JSW’s management.</li>
</ul>


Volume: JSW Steel reported 7.26 Mnt of crude steel production in Q1 FY26, up 14% YoY, despite seasonal and maintenance-related disruptions.
Expansion: The company is on track to scale up its capacity from 35.7 MTPA to 43.4 MTPA by FY28, led by ramp-ups at Vijayanagar, Dolvi, and greenfield Odisha.
BPSL: Legal clarity on the BPSL acquisition remains pending, though operations have been successfully ramped up to 4.5 MTPA under JSW’s management.


JSW Steel: Steady Output Amid Pricing Pressure; Record Volumes Likely Ahead

India

JSW Steel Limited is an integrated steel producer with manufacturing facilities in Karnataka, Tamil Nadu and the western state of Maharashtra. The Company produces products including hot rolled coils, cold rolled coils, wire rods, galvanized coils and sheets.

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JSW Steel Ltd (JSTL IN)

Lucror Analytics - Morning Views Asia

In today's Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: JSW Steel UST yields fell yesterday, led by...

Lucror Analytics

JFE Holdings: India JV Resets Long-Term Growth Path; Deep Value with Structural Upside

BPSL JV provides JFE with growth in India, diversifying from slow Japanese market, with manageable balance-sheet impact and discounted valuation.

Rahul Jain

JSW Steel & POSCO Sign HoA for 6mt JV in India

JSW and POSCO to form 6mt steel JV in Odisha, combining domestic scale with global technology to boost India's steel industry.

Rahul Jain

JSW Steel (NSE: JSWSTEEL) – Strong Q1 Beat, Confident FY26 Guidance, Premium Valuation

Q1 EBITDA up 38% driven by volume, product mix, and lower costs. Company confident in maintaining production and sales, with strong growth...

Rahul Jain

JSW Steel: Steady Output Amid Pricing Pressure; Record Volumes Likely Ahead

JSW Steel reports strong Q1 production growth, plans capacity expansion to 43.4 MTPA by FY28, awaiting legal clarity on BPSL acquisition.

Rahul Jain

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Lucror Analytics - Morning Views Asia

In today's Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: JSW Steel UST yields fell yesterday, led by...

Lucror Analytics

JFE Holdings: India JV Resets Long-Term Growth Path; Deep Value with Structural Upside

​BPSL JV provides JFE with growth in India, diversifying from slow Japanese market, with manageable balance-sheet impact and discounted valuation.

Rahul Jain

JSW Steel & POSCO Sign HoA for 6mt JV in India

​JSW and POSCO to form 6mt steel JV in Odisha, combining domestic scale with global technology to boost India's steel industry.

Rahul Jain

JSW Steel (NSE: JSWSTEEL) – Strong Q1 Beat, Confident FY26 Guidance, Premium Valuation

​Q1 EBITDA up 38% driven by volume, product mix, and lower costs. Company confident in maintaining production and sales, with strong growth...

Rahul Jain

JSW Steel: Steady Output Amid Pricing Pressure; Record Volumes Likely Ahead

​JSW Steel reports strong Q1 production growth, plans capacity expansion to 43.4 MTPA by FY28, awaiting legal clarity on BPSL acquisition.

Rahul Jain

BPSL JV provides JFE with growth in India, diversifying from slow Japanese market, with manageable balance-sheet impact and discounted valuation.

JSW and POSCO to form 6mt steel JV in Odisha, combining domestic scale with global technology to boost India's steel industry.

Q1 EBITDA up 38% driven by volume, product mix, and lower costs. Company confident in maintaining production and sales, with strong growth...

JSW Steel reports strong Q1 production growth, plans capacity expansion to 43.4 MTPA by FY28, awaiting legal clarity on BPSL acquisition.