Japanese Equity Specialist, Ortus Advisors

Andrew Jackson

Japanese Equity Specialist

Ortus Advisors

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Huge +18% move for Sandisk will help Japan's memory complex leg higher.</li>
<li>Networking developer Ciena jumped 23% after blow-out numbers while Broadcom beats after-hours.</li>
<li>10-Year yield dropping below its recent supports helps home builders higher while Shin Etsu continues to underwhelm.</li>
</ul>


Huge +18% move for Sandisk will help Japan's memory complex leg higher.
Networking developer Ciena jumped 23% after blow-out numbers while Broadcom beats after-hours.
10-Year yield dropping below its recent supports helps home builders higher while Shin Etsu continues to underwhelm.


Japan Morning Connection: Tech Storms Higher on a Raft of Positive Earnings and Bullish NAND Outlook

<ul>
<li>Markets not liking the US revoking TSMC's China export waiver sending TSMC suppliers lower.</li>
<li>Memory continues to shine but there looks to be more upside for HDD component suppliers Hoya and Minebea.</li>
<li>New AI glasses from Samsung could reignite interest in Nikon if the technology comes back into focus.</li>
</ul>


Markets not liking the US revoking TSMC's China export waiver sending TSMC suppliers lower.
Memory continues to shine but there looks to be more upside for HDD component suppliers Hoya and Minebea.
New AI glasses from Samsung could reignite interest in Nikon if the technology comes back into focus.


Japan Morning Connection: Google Spared from Anti-Trust Break up Sends Stock up in Late Trading

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Volatility finally picked up last Friday, and the SPX and Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) both gapped lower to close below their 20-day MAs for the first time in over three months.</li>
<li>With that said, all of the major indexes (SPX, QQQ, DJI, IWM) rallied yesterday to fill their gaps from Friday and SPX and QQQ have reclaimed above their 20-day MAs. </li>
<li>This is a bullish signal that suggests any further pullback is likely to be relatively shallow, and should be treated as a buying opportunity.</li>
</ul>


Volatility finally picked up last Friday, and the SPX and Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) both gapped lower to close below their 20-day MAs for the first time in over three months.
With that said, all of the major indexes (SPX, QQQ, DJI, IWM) rallied yesterday to fill their gaps from Friday and SPX and QQQ have reclaimed above their 20-day MAs. 
This is a bullish signal that suggests any further pullback is likely to be relatively shallow, and should be treated as a buying opportunity.


Was That It?; Downgrading Discretionary and Energy; Gr/Val Breakout; Market Dynamics Remain Risk-On

Japanese Turnaround Situations, Short-Ideas, Azabu Research

Michael Allen

Japanese Turnaround Situations, Short-Ideas

Azabu Research

Azabu Research is a publishing and consulting firm focused on distressed equities in the Japanese market. We specialize in turnaround strategies, corporate combinations, divestitures, and restructuring.

Publisher of the Tokyo Turnaround Letter, which conducts the most thorough research possible of publicly available information, including forensic tests for fraudulent overstatement of assets and understatement of liabilities, as well as rigorous market and industry analysis to assess the underlying strengths of the company’s products or services, the appropriateness of the company’s turnaround strategy, and the skill of its current management team. The average length of a report exceeds 25 pages of text and tables, excluding any disclosures or executive summaries.

We have more than 30 years of experience in applying this process to distressed equities in Japan. Additionally, subscribers have free access to detailed, yet easily navigated earnings models for the target company as well as the top five comparable companies, and unlimited access to the analyst for follow-up questions.

Azabu Research also conducts be-spoke research on a project basis, and provides consulting services to companies looking to restructure, divest, make acquisitions, go public, or improve investor sentiment toward their stock.

Independent Research and Consulting Firm

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Taiyo Yuden underperformed its peers in electronic components by 29% over the past year, but its change in operating profit margin should outperform peers by 68% in the current year.</li>
<li>Exposure to the U.S. is less than 7% of direct sales, but probably 25% including indirect exposure. Still, based on supply/demand analysis, we think Yuden is probably tariff proof.  </li>
<li>While rivals have prioritized high-margin device modules to offset component sales declines, Yuden doubled down on its core capacitor and inductor strengths and appears to be coming out ahead.</li>
</ul>


Taiyo Yuden underperformed its peers in electronic components by 29% over the past year, but its change in operating profit margin should outperform peers by 68% in the current year.
Exposure to the U.S. is less than 7% of direct sales, but probably 25% including indirect exposure. Still, based on supply/demand analysis, we think Yuden is probably tariff proof.  
While rivals have prioritized high-margin device modules to offset component sales declines, Yuden doubled down on its core capacitor and inductor strengths and appears to be coming out ahead.


Taiyo Yuden (6976):  A Slightly Different Path to Massively Higher Margins

<ul>
<li>HDD names taking a hit in later trading after Seagate miss. Watch the likes of Hoya, TDK and Minebea Misumi for weakness.</li>
<li>Boeing down despite numbers good on better FCF, although 787 deliveries read's well for carbon fiber names the Heavies.</li>
<li>NEC beat points to plenty of room for further upside, while Advantest numbers may lead to tough QoQ comps for 2Q.</li>
</ul>


HDD names taking a hit in later trading after Seagate miss. Watch the likes of Hoya, TDK and Minebea Misumi for weakness.
Boeing down despite numbers good on better FCF, although 787 deliveries read's well for carbon fiber names the Heavies.
NEC beat points to plenty of room for further upside, while Advantest numbers may lead to tough QoQ comps for 2Q.


Japan Morning Connection: Big Print for Corning Will Drive DC and Optical Connectivity Plays

Japan

TDK CORPORATION manufactures electronics components such as magnetic tapes and ferrite cores.  The Company also sells power supplies, inductors, transformers, ceramic capacitors, magnets, LAN (Local Area Network) components, sensors, and semiconductors.  TDK markets its products worldwide.

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TDK Corp (6762 JP)

Japan Morning Connection: Tech Storms Higher on a Raft of Positive Earnings and Bullish NAND Outlook

Lynx equity strategies research sent NAND related higher in the US, watch JP memory names today. Drop in 10-year yield will help homebuilders....

Andrew Jackson

Japan Morning Connection: Google Spared from Anti-Trust Break up Sends Stock up in Late Trading

Optical tech related may see sentiment rise with AR/AI glasses market, HDD names have further to grow with storage demand for AI data centres.

Andrew Jackson

Was That It?; Downgrading Discretionary and Energy; Gr/Val Breakout; Market Dynamics Remain Risk-On

Was That It? $SPX $QQQ $IWM; Downgrading Discretionary $XLY to market weight and Energy $XLE to underweight; Growth vs. Value Breaking Out; Market...

Vermilion Research

Taiyo Yuden (6976): A Slightly Different Path to Massively Higher Margins

Taiyo Yuden's focus on core strengths is paying off with a projected 68% increase in operating profit this year. Low U.S. exposure makes it likely...

Michael Allen

Japan Morning Connection: Big Print for Corning Will Drive DC and Optical Connectivity Plays

Memory names will be down after Seagate's weakness. Boeing down despite good numbers but general outlook is strong. Corning's beat should send...

Andrew Jackson

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Japan Morning Connection: Tech Storms Higher on a Raft of Positive Earnings and Bullish NAND Outlook

Lynx equity strategies research sent NAND related higher in the US, watch JP memory names today. Drop in 10-year yield will help homebuilders....

Andrew Jackson

Japan Morning Connection: Google Spared from Anti-Trust Break up Sends Stock up in Late Trading

Optical tech related may see sentiment rise with AR/AI glasses market, HDD names have further to grow with storage demand for AI data centres.

Andrew Jackson

Was That It?; Downgrading Discretionary and Energy; Gr/Val Breakout; Market Dynamics Remain Risk-On

Was That It? $SPX $QQQ $IWM; Downgrading Discretionary $XLY to market weight and Energy $XLE to underweight; Growth vs. Value Breaking Out; Market...

Vermilion Research

Taiyo Yuden (6976): A Slightly Different Path to Massively Higher Margins

​Taiyo Yuden's focus on core strengths is paying off with a projected 68% increase in operating profit this year. Low U.S. exposure makes it likely...

Michael Allen

Japan Morning Connection: Big Print for Corning Will Drive DC and Optical Connectivity Plays

Memory names will be down after Seagate's weakness. Boeing down despite good numbers but general outlook is strong. Corning's beat should send...

Andrew Jackson

Taiyo Yuden's focus on core strengths is paying off with a projected 68% increase in operating profit this year. Low U.S. exposure makes it likely...