Semiconductor & Technology Specialist, Ingenuity

William Keating

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist

Ingenuity

Our focus is exclusively on in-depth research & consulting in the broader semiconductor industry. We focus on the key players, namely Intel, Micron, Qualcomm, Apple, Samsung, NVIDIA, AMD, TSMC & Global Foundries - as well as some of the lesser known, but nonetheless critical, companies such as ASML (for EUV), Mellanox, Cavium, Xilinx etc. We specialise in their products, roadmaps, process technologies, competitive advantages & threats etc. We also help our clients understand the implications of new and emerging technologies, e.g. 3D X-Point, 3D NAND, Carbon Nanotubes, Autonomous Driving, Graphene, Silicon Photonics, Wafer-Level Optics, Artificial Intelligence, FPGA, GPU, ASIC etc. 

Semiconductor Analysis & Research

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Forecasting PC &amp; Smartphone unit shipments to increase 5% YoY on the back on "AI Enablement"</li>
<li>Server unit shipments declined ~20% in 2023 but overall revenues remained flat, a consequence of higher ASPs associated with AI-accelerated servers</li>
<li>Server shipments will return to growth in 2024, likely +10% YoY. Server ASPs will increase yet again YoY as AI-server mix grows. </li>
</ul>


Forecasting PC &amp; Smartphone unit shipments to increase 5% YoY on the back on "AI Enablement"
Server unit shipments declined ~20% in 2023 but overall revenues remained flat, a consequence of higher ASPs associated with AI-accelerated servers
Server shipments will return to growth in 2024, likely +10% YoY. Server ASPs will increase yet again YoY as AI-server mix grows. 


Semiconductor 2023 Key Indicators In Review, 2024 Forecasts

Equity Long-Short, Semiconductors, Fabricated Knowledge

Douglas O'Laughlin

Equity Long-Short, Semiconductors

Fabricated Knowledge

Learn more about the world's most important manufactured product. Meaningful insight, timely analysis, and an occasional investment idea.

<ul><li>Markets always act erratically, but I thought I would highlight one aspect that disproportionately impacts semiconductors.</li><li>Factor investing is not new, but we are in a unique period where Momentum has quite a period of outperformance and short-term outperformance.</li><li>This matters because semiconductors are (as far as my memory holds) the most significant weight in Momentum I’ve ever witnessed. </li></ul>

Markets always act erratically, but I thought I would highlight one aspect that disproportionately impacts semiconductors.Factor investing is not new, but we are in a unique period where Momentum has quite a period of outperformance and short-term outperformance.This matters because semiconductors are (as far as my memory holds) the most significant weight in Momentum I’ve ever witnessed. 

Asia and Global Semiconductor and Tech Research

Andrew Lu

<ul>
<li>Continuous weaknesses to be seen in industrial and general non-AI server semi demand starting 3Q23 and lasting into 1Q24 and some weaknesses in digital consumer semi demand starting 4Q23.</li>
<li>Memory semiconductor vendors see strengths in 4Q23 and continuous improvement in DRAM/NAND price in 1Q24.</li>
<li>We see a healthy mid single digit q/q and y/y decline on 4Q23 MOI but suggest vendors to avoid in next 1-2 months before they guide down the market.</li>
</ul>


Continuous weaknesses to be seen in industrial and general non-AI server semi demand starting 3Q23 and lasting into 1Q24 and some weaknesses in digital consumer semi demand starting 4Q23.
Memory semiconductor vendors see strengths in 4Q23 and continuous improvement in DRAM/NAND price in 1Q24.
We see a healthy mid single digit q/q and y/y decline on 4Q23 MOI but suggest vendors to avoid in next 1-2 months before they guide down the market.


First Run of Tech/Semis' Guidance Tells Us What Industries and Companies to Avoid

<ul>
<li>With a strong 20A/18A team, Intel might take some CPU shares back from AMD to affect TSMC but reduce geopolitical tensions from the US after Intel returning to the best. </li>
<li>SMIC can use DUV to do 3nm but different from others' because Moore's law is no longer using circuit line width but to use performance, power, density to determine 3nm. </li>
<li>New fabless industry opportunities are emerging in middle east countries, and south east Asia countries like Vietnam. Despite high cost issues, global expansion will help TSMC to attract global talents. </li>
</ul>


With a strong 20A/18A team, Intel might take some CPU shares back from AMD to affect TSMC but reduce geopolitical tensions from the US after Intel returning to the best. 
SMIC can use DUV to do 3nm but different from others' because Moore's law is no longer using circuit line width but to use performance, power, density to determine 3nm. 
New fabless industry opportunities are emerging in middle east countries, and south east Asia countries like Vietnam. Despite high cost issues, global expansion will help TSMC to attract global talents. 


A R&D Director Dr. Young Was at TSMC, SMIC, and Intel Foundry Shared Views on 3-1nm Competitions

<ul>
<li>What inning is AI in?</li>
<li>If <a href="https://www.fabricatedknowledge.com/p/lessons-from-history-the-rise-and" target="_blank" rel="noopener">history is a guide</a>, it’s hard to predict the twists and turns of a new market growing from nothing.</li>
<li>Here’s my humble attempt at estimating AI penetration and my thoughts on the run-rate business of AI models and industry structure.</li>
</ul>


What inning is AI in?
If history is a guide, it’s hard to predict the twists and turns of a new market growing from nothing.
Here’s my humble attempt at estimating AI penetration and my thoughts on the run-rate business of AI models and industry structure.


AI Industry Structure and Business Model: What Inning is It?

United States

Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (AMD) produces semiconductor products and devices. The Company offers products such as microprocessors, embedded microprocessors, chipsets, graphics, video and multimedia products and supplies it to third-party foundries, as well as provides assembling, testing, and packaging services. AMD serves customers worldwide.

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Semiconductor 2023 Key Indicators In Review, 2024 Forecasts

PC & Smartphone unit shipments will increase 5% YoY on the back on "AI Enablement". Server shipments fell ~20% in 2023 but overall revenues...

William Keating

Factors and Semiconductors

A friendly warning. Momentum is outperforming all factors this year, and Semiconductors are a large part of that. Markets always act erratically,...

Fabricated Knowledge

First Run of Tech/Semis' Guidance Tells Us What Industries and Companies to Avoid

First Run of Tech/Semis' Guidance Tells Us What Industries and Companies to Avoid; Weaknesses to be seen in industrial, general non-AI server semi,...

Andrew Lu

A R&D Director Dr. Young Was at TSMC, SMIC, and Intel Foundry Shared Views on 3-1nm Competitions

A R&D Director Dr. Young Was at TSMC, SMIC, and Intel Foundry Shared Views on 3-1nm Competitions. Intel might ramp up its 20A/18A ahead of TSMC 2nm...

Andrew Lu

AI Industry Structure and Business Model: What Inning is It?

What inning is AI in? If history is a guide, it’s hard to predict the twists and turns of a new market growing from nothing...

Fabricated Knowledge

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