Value Investing

Vladimir Dimitrov, CFA

Equity Bottom-Up

Advanced Micro Devices / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The sharp rebound of Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (NASDAQ:AMD) over the recent months came to a sudden halt after market participants were once again surprised by the deteriorating outlook for the company.</li>
<li>Prompted by the bear market rally in equities, AMD's stock has almost doubled in a matter of just a couple of months from October of last year to March 2023. 
</li>
<li>While everyone was cheering the new wave of AI-driven demand, the quarterly report from earlier this week is a warning that should not be ignored.</li>
</ul>


The sharp rebound of Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (NASDAQ:AMD) over the recent months came to a sudden halt after market participants were once again surprised by the deteriorating outlook for the company.
Prompted by the bear market rally in equities, AMD's stock has almost doubled in a matter of just a couple of months from October of last year to March 2023. 

While everyone was cheering the new wave of AI-driven demand, the quarterly report from earlier this week is a warning that should not be ignored.


External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>NVIDIA reported another strong beat against elevated expectations, along with a strong outlook (guided 4Q revenue of US$20bn, vs consensus US$17.9bn), alleviating concerns on supply constraints and impact on China sales. Key highlights include: 1) FY4Q24E guidance beat on stronger topline/margin with strong AI demand and robust product pipeline into 2024</li><li>2) China’s sales to drop significantly in 4Q23, largely offset by strong growth in other regions, and new regulation-compliant solutions will be available for China (20-25% of DC sales) in the next few months</li><li>3) mgmt. guided continued chip capacity expansion to meet growth, and expected data center revenue to grow through 2025</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

NVIDIA reported another strong beat against elevated expectations, along with a strong outlook (guided 4Q revenue of US$20bn, vs consensus US$17.9bn), alleviating concerns on supply constraints and impact on China sales. Key highlights include: 1) FY4Q24E guidance beat on stronger topline/margin with strong AI demand and robust product pipeline into 20242) China’s sales to drop significantly in 4Q23, largely offset by strong growth in other regions, and new regulation-compliant solutions will be available for China (20-25% of DC sales) in the next few months3) mgmt. guided continued chip capacity expansion to meet growth, and expected data center revenue to grow through 2025Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

China Technology – NVIDIA FY3Q24: Another Stunning Quarter on Robust AI Demand

<ul><li>As we finished week 1-4 of 3Q earnings season for major global fabless/IDM semi companies (AMD/Intel/Qualcomm/TI/Infineon/STM/MTK/OnSemi), results/ guidance have been mixed on inventory level and demand recovery.</li><li>Overall, SP/PC/NB (QCOM/MTK/Intel/AMD) started restocking given seasonal demand on new product launches, and server market (Intel/AMD) has shown signs of normalised inventory and mild recovery into 4Q.</li><li>Auto segment (TI/STM/ON) in general began to show cyclical weakness and guided cautious outlook into 4Q. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

As we finished week 1-4 of 3Q earnings season for major global fabless/IDM semi companies (AMD/Intel/Qualcomm/TI/Infineon/STM/MTK/OnSemi), results/ guidance have been mixed on inventory level and demand recovery.Overall, SP/PC/NB (QCOM/MTK/Intel/AMD) started restocking given seasonal demand on new product launches, and server market (Intel/AMD) has shown signs of normalised inventory and mild recovery into 4Q.Auto segment (TI/STM/ON) in general began to show cyclical weakness and guided cautious outlook into 4Q. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

China Technology – Global Fabless/IDM 3Q23 Wrap: PC/SP Recovery, Auto/ Industrial Mixed

<ul>
<li>AMD’s 3Q23 results were largely in line with market expectations, despite its weaker 4Q23 guidance on gaming slowdown.</li>
<li>3Q revenue increased 4% YoY /8% QoQ to US$5.8bn driven by record sales of server CPU and strong Ryzen processor sales.</li>
<li>GPM improved 1ppt YoY to 51% and EPS increased 4% YoY to US$0.7, mainly driven by strong client segment and better product mix.</li>
</ul>
Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.


AMD’s 3Q23 results were largely in line with market expectations, despite its weaker 4Q23 guidance on gaming slowdown.
3Q revenue increased 4% YoY /8% QoQ to US$5.8bn driven by record sales of server CPU and strong Ryzen processor sales.
GPM improved 1ppt YoY to 51% and EPS increased 4% YoY to US$0.7, mainly driven by strong client segment and better product mix.

Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

China Technology – Implications of AMD 3Q23: PC Recovery and AI PC Opportunities

<ul><li>Intel’s 3Q23 results beat prior guidance and market expectations, and it guided an upbeat 4Q23 with a return to sales growth backed by improving PC market and a more competitive product pipeline.</li><li>3Q revenue declined 8% YoY to US$14.2bn (above high-end of guidance) and EPS increased 11% YoY to US$0.41 (vs. US$0.2 for guidance), mainly driven by CCG/DCAI strength, better operating leverage and expense discipline.</li><li>Looking into 4Q23E, mgmt. expected PC momentum to continue and sequential growth of datacentre and AI businesses in 4Q23E. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Intel’s 3Q23 results beat prior guidance and market expectations, and it guided an upbeat 4Q23 with a return to sales growth backed by improving PC market and a more competitive product pipeline.3Q revenue declined 8% YoY to US$14.2bn (above high-end of guidance) and EPS increased 11% YoY to US$0.41 (vs. US$0.2 for guidance), mainly driven by CCG/DCAI strength, better operating leverage and expense discipline.Looking into 4Q23E, mgmt. expected PC momentum to continue and sequential growth of datacentre and AI businesses in 4Q23E. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

China Technology – Implications of Intel 3Q23

United States

Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (AMD) produces semiconductor products and devices. The Company offers products such as microprocessors, embedded microprocessors, chipsets, graphics, video and multimedia products and supplies it to third-party foundries, as well as provides assembling, testing, and packaging services. AMD serves customers worldwide.

Advanced Micro Devices (AMD US)

AMD: The Bear Market Rally Is Over

rompted by the bear market rally in equities, AMD's stock has almost doubled in a matter of just a couple of months from October of last year to...

Vladimir Dimitrov, CFA

China Technology – NVIDIA FY3Q24: Another Stunning Quarter on Robust AI Demand

NVIDIA reported another strong beat against elevated expectations, along with a strong outlook (guided 4Q revenue of US$20bn, vs consensus US$17.9bn)

CMB International

China Technology – Global Fabless/IDM 3Q23 Wrap: PC/SP Recovery, Auto/ Industrial Mixed

Overall, SP/PC/NB (QCOM/MTK/Intel/AMD) started restocking given seasonal demand on new product launches, and server market (Intel/AMD) has shown...

CMB International

China Technology – Implications of AMD 3Q23: PC Recovery and AI PC Opportunities

AMD’s 3Q23 results were largely in line with market expectations, despite its weaker 4Q23 guidance on gaming slowdown. 3Q revenue increased 4% YoY...

CMB International

China Technology – Implications of Intel 3Q23

Intel’s 3Q23 results beat prior guidance and market expectations, and it guided an upbeat 4Q23 with a return to sales growth backed by improving PC...

CMB International