Podcast On the Business of Semiconductors, The Circuit

The Circuit

Podcast On the Business of Semiconductors

A Podcast On the Business of Semiconductors. With Jay Goldberg and Ben Bajarin

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Strong quarter with big surprise on EPS and above-expectation guidance</li><li>Positive performance in PCs and automotive sectors, with design wins and partnerships</li><li>Concerns over competitive landscape and market expectations, but overall solid performance from Qualcomm and potential for growth opportunities in the future</li></ul>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Strong quarter with big surprise on EPS and above-expectation guidancePositive performance in PCs and automotive sectors, with design wins and partnershipsConcerns over competitive landscape and market expectations, but overall solid performance from Qualcomm and potential for growth opportunities in the futureThis content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Episode 104: Earnings Thoughts (QCOM, AMD, Arm) and Hypersaler CapEx Steady

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist, Ingenuity

William Keating

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist

Ingenuity

Our focus is exclusively on in-depth research & consulting in the broader semiconductor industry. We focus on the key players, namely Intel, Micron, Qualcomm, Apple, Samsung, NVIDIA, AMD, TSMC & Global Foundries - as well as some of the lesser known, but nonetheless critical, companies such as ASML (for EUV), Mellanox, Cavium, Xilinx etc. We specialise in their products, roadmaps, process technologies, competitive advantages & threats etc. We also help our clients understand the implications of new and emerging technologies, e.g. 3D X-Point, 3D NAND, Carbon Nanotubes, Autonomous Driving, Graphene, Silicon Photonics, Wafer-Level Optics, Artificial Intelligence, FPGA, GPU, ASIC etc. 

Semiconductor Analysis & Research

<ul>
<li>Global semiconductor sales reached a all time record high of $627.6 billion in 2024, an increase of 19.1% YoY, details here:</li>
<li>As anticipated, semi sales eased off in December 2024, reaching $57.0 billion, a decrease of 1.2% MoM but still up 17% YoY.</li>
<li>WSTS is forecasting 11.2% growth in 2025. Based on the planned ~40% increase in Mag7 CapEx, we think this is too low and needs to be revised upward to &gt;15% </li>
</ul>


Global semiconductor sales reached a all time record high of $627.6 billion in 2024, an increase of 19.1% YoY, details here:
As anticipated, semi sales eased off in December 2024, reaching $57.0 billion, a decrease of 1.2% MoM but still up 17% YoY.
WSTS is forecasting 11.2% growth in 2025. Based on the planned ~40% increase in Mag7 CapEx, we think this is too low and needs to be revised upward to &gt;15% 


Global Semiconductor Sales Hit Record High Of $627.6 Billion in 2024. Where To Now?

Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR

<ul>
<li>Rapidus Corporation -- The Japan-based semiconductor startup has emerged as a key part of the country’s ambition to reclaim a foothold in the advanced semiconductor manufacturing space.</li>
<li>How Rapidus Compares to TSMC -- Rapidus’s challenge is not only in catching up with TSMC’s leading-edge process nodes but also in ensuring manufacturing maturity and cost competitiveness.</li>
<li>Maintain Structural Long rating for TSMC -- Accumulate on market weakness. TSMC is partially insulated from U.S. tariff risks thanks to its position producing the most advanced chips.</li>
</ul>


Rapidus Corporation -- The Japan-based semiconductor startup has emerged as a key part of the country’s ambition to reclaim a foothold in the advanced semiconductor manufacturing space.
How Rapidus Compares to TSMC -- Rapidus’s challenge is not only in catching up with TSMC’s leading-edge process nodes but also in ensuring manufacturing maturity and cost competitiveness.
Maintain Structural Long rating for TSMC -- Accumulate on market weakness. TSMC is partially insulated from U.S. tariff risks thanks to its position producing the most advanced chips.


Japan's Semiconductor Gamble: Can Rapidus Challenge TSMC?

<ul>
<li>Q424 revenues of $14.3 billion which was $500 million above the guided midpoint, down 7% YoY but up 7.5% QoQ.</li>
<li>Forecasted Q125 revenues of $12.2 billion at the midpoint, down $500 million YoY and down 15% QoQ</li>
<li>Transition to EUV abysmally slow, Falcon Shores cancelled, Clearwater Forest delayed, GMs will see some improvement or mixed improvement in 2026. </li>
</ul>


Q424 revenues of $14.3 billion which was $500 million above the guided midpoint, down 7% YoY but up 7.5% QoQ.
Forecasted Q125 revenues of $12.2 billion at the midpoint, down $500 million YoY and down 15% QoQ
Transition to EUV abysmally slow, Falcon Shores cancelled, Clearwater Forest delayed, GMs will see some improvement or mixed improvement in 2026. 


Intel Q424. It's A Journey, Not A Destination

<ul>
<li>PC Monitor: Snapdragon’s Surge, AMD’s Gains, Intel’s Test; Long Asus &amp; Dell</li>
<li>Memory Monitor: Is DeepSeek a Problem for SK Hynix &amp; Micron's HBM DRAM Growth? </li>
<li>TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): Earthquake Impact Limited; Setting Newest Production Line Not Viable in US. </li>
</ul>


PC Monitor: Snapdragon’s Surge, AMD’s Gains, Intel’s Test; Long Asus &amp; Dell
Memory Monitor: Is DeepSeek a Problem for SK Hynix &amp; Micron's HBM DRAM Growth? 
TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): Earthquake Impact Limited; Setting Newest Production Line Not Viable in US. 


Taiwan Tech Weekly: How Apple Helped TSMC Become #1; Also Morris Chang Comments on TSMC ADR Premium

United States

Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (AMD) produces semiconductor products and devices. The Company offers products such as microprocessors, embedded microprocessors, chipsets, graphics, video and multimedia products and supplies it to third-party foundries, as well as provides assembling, testing, and packaging services. AMD serves customers worldwide.

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Advanced Micro Devices (AMD US)

Episode 104: Earnings Thoughts (QCOM, AMD, Arm) and Hypersaler CapEx Steady

Overall, Qualcomm had a strong quarter with a big surprise on EPS, profitability, and guidance, despite a dip in after hours trading, due to...

The Circuit

Global Semiconductor Sales Hit Record High Of $627.6 Billion in 2024. Where To Now?

WSTS is forecasting 11.2% growth in 2025. Based on the planned ~40% increase in Mag7 CapEx, we think this is too low and needs to be revised upward...

William Keating

Japan's Semiconductor Gamble: Can Rapidus Challenge TSMC?

Japan's Rapidus aims to boost country's semiconductor industry, but faces significant challenges in catching up to TSMC's advanced nodes and cost...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Intel Q424. It's A Journey, Not A Destination

Transition to EUV abysmally slow, Falcon Shores cancelled, Clearwater Forest delayed, GMs will see some improvement or mixed improvement in 2026....

William Keating

Taiwan Tech Weekly: How Apple Helped TSMC Become #1; Also Morris Chang Comments on TSMC ADR Premium

Also: Performance of Snapdragon, AMD, and Intel in the PC monitor market; potential challenges for SK Hynix and Micron in the memory monitor...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Episode 104: Earnings Thoughts (QCOM, AMD, Arm) and Hypersaler CapEx Steady

Overall, Qualcomm had a strong quarter with a big surprise on EPS, profitability, and guidance, despite a dip in after hours trading, due to...

The Circuit

Global Semiconductor Sales Hit Record High Of $627.6 Billion in 2024. Where To Now?

WSTS is forecasting 11.2% growth in 2025. Based on the planned ~40% increase in Mag7 CapEx, we think this is too low and needs to be revised upward...

William Keating

Japan's Semiconductor Gamble: Can Rapidus Challenge TSMC?

​Japan's Rapidus aims to boost country's semiconductor industry, but faces significant challenges in catching up to TSMC's advanced nodes and cost...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Intel Q424. It's A Journey, Not A Destination

Transition to EUV abysmally slow, Falcon Shores cancelled, Clearwater Forest delayed, GMs will see some improvement or mixed improvement in 2026....

William Keating

Taiwan Tech Weekly: How Apple Helped TSMC Become #1; Also Morris Chang Comments on TSMC ADR Premium

Also: Performance of Snapdragon, AMD, and Intel in the PC monitor market; potential challenges for SK Hynix and Micron in the memory monitor...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Japan's Rapidus aims to boost country's semiconductor industry, but faces significant challenges in catching up to TSMC's advanced nodes and cost...