Technology / Semiconductor / Internet Research

Nicolas Baratte

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>April 2025, the US Gvt extended restrictions on Nvidia’s China-specific H20 chip. Restriction also apply to H20’s memory bandwidth. This means SK Hynix HBM and TSMC CoWoS.   </li>
<li>Nvidia new China-specific chip derive from this: a downgraded chip, half a Blackwell, without HBM-CoWoS packaging. Time to design, manufacture, could lead to ~15% downside risk to FY26 Consensus?   </li>
<li>FY26 revenues could land at US$175bn or  -12% below Consensus at 199bn. $175bn implies 35% growth YoY, Consensus expects 52%. The stock trades at “low” 30x FY26 and 24x FY27.</li>
</ul>


April 2025, the US Gvt extended restrictions on Nvidia’s China-specific H20 chip. Restriction also apply to H20’s memory bandwidth. This means SK Hynix HBM and TSMC CoWoS.   
Nvidia new China-specific chip derive from this: a downgraded chip, half a Blackwell, without HBM-CoWoS packaging. Time to design, manufacture, could lead to ~15% downside risk to FY26 Consensus?   
FY26 revenues could land at US$175bn or  -12% below Consensus at 199bn. $175bn implies 35% growth YoY, Consensus expects 52%. The stock trades at “low” 30x FY26 and 24x FY27.


Nvidia’s Jensen Complaining About Export Restrictions to China: How Much Is at Stake? Quite a Lot.

Fintech & EM-focused Analyst, KT Capital Group

Alec Tseung

Fintech & EM-focused Analyst

KT Capital Group

Principal investments and advisory firm that focuses on connecting the CIS countries with East Asia.

Principal investments and advisory firm

United Overseas Insurance / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>UOI received much media attention when a minority shareholder group attempted to push the company to distribute its Haw Par shares and appoint a financial advisor to unlock shareholder value.</li>
<li>Although the Board dismissed the request due to the failure to meet statutory requirements, the ownership structure between UOI, UOB, Haw Par, and Wee family remains a valid concern.</li>
<li>UOI has underperformed the broader market over the past 5 years; the key to management is how it can grow from a mid-sized local insurer to a leading regional one.</li>
</ul>


UOI received much media attention when a minority shareholder group attempted to push the company to distribute its Haw Par shares and appoint a financial advisor to unlock shareholder value.
Although the Board dismissed the request due to the failure to meet statutory requirements, the ownership structure between UOI, UOB, Haw Par, and Wee family remains a valid concern.
UOI has underperformed the broader market over the past 5 years; the key to management is how it can grow from a mid-sized local insurer to a leading regional one.


United Overseas Insurance: The Samsung Family of Singapore?

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Import tariff into the US: Korea 25%, Taiwan 32%. But the White house clarified: no Reciprocal Tariff on semiconductors.  </li>
<li>There are other exemption (pharmaceuticals, lumber, certain minerals not available in the US). But then Apple or Nvidia don’t import Semis from Taiwan or Korea. </li>
<li>They import iPhones from China / India or Servers made in Taiwan. Is it a little bug to be fixed? There’s an interesting loophole: 10% tariff on Singapore.  </li>
</ul>


Import tariff into the US: Korea 25%, Taiwan 32%. But the White house clarified: no Reciprocal Tariff on semiconductors.  
There are other exemption (pharmaceuticals, lumber, certain minerals not available in the US). But then Apple or Nvidia don’t import Semis from Taiwan or Korea. 
They import iPhones from China / India or Servers made in Taiwan. Is it a little bug to be fixed? There’s an interesting loophole: 10% tariff on Singapore.  


No Tariffs on Semiconductors – but Does It Matter?

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Douglas Research Advisory

<ul>
<li>In this insight, we highlight the recent pricing gap divergences of the major Korean holdcos and opcos which could provide trading opportunities in 2Q 2025.</li>
<li>Among the 38 holdcos/opcos, there have been several pairs that have resulted in significant price ratio divergence which could provide trading opportunities in terms of their pricing gaps closing reversal.</li>
<li>Given the resumption in short selling in Korea, there is going to be a lot more interest in pair trades in Korea, especially among the major Korean holdcos/opcos. </li>
</ul>


In this insight, we highlight the recent pricing gap divergences of the major Korean holdcos and opcos which could provide trading opportunities in 2Q 2025.
Among the 38 holdcos/opcos, there have been several pairs that have resulted in significant price ratio divergence which could provide trading opportunities in terms of their pricing gaps closing reversal.
Given the resumption in short selling in Korea, there is going to be a lot more interest in pair trades in Korea, especially among the major Korean holdcos/opcos. 


Korean Holdcos Vs Opcos Gap Trading Opportunities in 2Q 2025

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs Specialist, Objective Analysis

Jim Handy

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs Specialist

Objective Analysis

Objective Analysis offers third-party independent market research and data for the semiconductor industry and investors in the semiconductor industry.

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs

<ul>
<li>Hyperscaler CapEx could be slowing down, based on 4Q24 spending</li>
<li>Microsoft made a significant cut in Q4, but Amazon, Facebook, and Alibaba all made big increases</li>
<li>Industry CapEx as a percent of revenue has slowed its growth</li>
</ul>


Hyperscaler CapEx could be slowing down, based on 4Q24 spending
Microsoft made a significant cut in Q4, but Amazon, Facebook, and Alibaba all made big increases
Industry CapEx as a percent of revenue has slowed its growth


South Korea

Samsung Electronics Co., Ltd. manufactures a wide range of consumer and industrial electronic equipment and products such as semiconductors, personal computers, peripherals, monitors, televisions, and home appliances including air conditioners and microwave ovens. The Company also produces Internet access network systems and telecommunications equipment including mobile phones.

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Samsung Electronics (005930 KS)

Nvidia’s Jensen Complaining About Export Restrictions to China: How Much Is at Stake? Quite a Lot.

Nvidia new China-specific chip GPU will take time, leading to potential downside risk for FY26 revenues. But the stock is trading at low multiples

Nicolas Baratte

United Overseas Insurance: The Samsung Family of Singapore?

Recent media attention on UOI due to minority shareholders' activism attempt; concerns over ownership structure, which resembles that of Samsung...

Alec Tseung

No Tariffs on Semiconductors – but Does It Matter?

US import tariffs on Korea and Taiwan are high, but no reciprocal tariff on semiconductors. Apple and Nvidia don't import semis from these...

Nicolas Baratte

Korean Holdcos Vs Opcos Gap Trading Opportunities in 2Q 2025

In this insight, we highlight the recent pricing gap divergences of the major Korean holdcos and opcos which could provide trading opportunities in...

Douglas Kim

IS AI Spending Poised to Fall?

Hyperscaler CapEx growth may be slowing as Microsoft cuts spending in Q4 while Amazon, Facebook, and Alibaba increase theirs, leading to a...

Jim Handy

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Nvidia’s Jensen Complaining About Export Restrictions to China: How Much Is at Stake? Quite a Lot.

​Nvidia new China-specific chip GPU will take time, leading to potential downside risk for FY26 revenues. But the stock is trading at low multiples

Nicolas Baratte

United Overseas Insurance: The Samsung Family of Singapore?

​Recent media attention on UOI due to minority shareholders' activism attempt; concerns over ownership structure, which resembles that of Samsung...

Alec Tseung

No Tariffs on Semiconductors – but Does It Matter?

​US import tariffs on Korea and Taiwan are high, but no reciprocal tariff on semiconductors. Apple and Nvidia don't import semis from these...

Nicolas Baratte

Korean Holdcos Vs Opcos Gap Trading Opportunities in 2Q 2025

In this insight, we highlight the recent pricing gap divergences of the major Korean holdcos and opcos which could provide trading opportunities in...

Douglas Kim

IS AI Spending Poised to Fall?

​Hyperscaler CapEx growth may be slowing as Microsoft cuts spending in Q4 while Amazon, Facebook, and Alibaba increase theirs, leading to a...

Jim Handy

Nvidia new China-specific chip GPU will take time, leading to potential downside risk for FY26 revenues. But the stock is trading at low multiples

Recent media attention on UOI due to minority shareholders' activism attempt; concerns over ownership structure, which resembles that of Samsung...

US import tariffs on Korea and Taiwan are high, but no reciprocal tariff on semiconductors. Apple and Nvidia don't import semis from these...

Hyperscaler CapEx growth may be slowing as Microsoft cuts spending in Q4 while Amazon, Facebook, and Alibaba increase theirs, leading to a...