Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Snap-Back rallies have continued in the largest global equity markets (U.S., Japan, and Europe).</li>
<li>Japan's TOPIX is still below 2690-2700 and the EURO STOXX 50 is below 4884, and whether they roll over here or from marginally higher levels, lower highs remain likely.</li>
<li>It all fits with our ongoing belief (since our July 25, 2024 Int'l Compass) that MSCI ACWI is going through a 1- to 4-month pullback/consolidation (we are one month in).</li>
</ul>


Snap-Back rallies have continued in the largest global equity markets (U.S., Japan, and Europe).
Japan's TOPIX is still below 2690-2700 and the EURO STOXX 50 is below 4884, and whether they roll over here or from marginally higher levels, lower highs remain likely.
It all fits with our ongoing belief (since our July 25, 2024 Int'l Compass) that MSCI ACWI is going through a 1- to 4-month pullback/consolidation (we are one month in).


Shift Now to Defensives; Snap-Back Rally Testing Resistance $ACWI $SPX; Neutral Outlook Intact

TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We continue to believe a 1-4-month pullback/consolidation is ongoing. Important supports have been violated, including $110 on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) and $41 on MSCI EM (EEM-US).</li>
<li>We're shifting our outlook to neutral on $ACWI after being bullish since early-November 2023. Major price breakdowns combined with deteriorating market dynamics have increased the odds of a topping pattern.</li>
<li>Also downgrading Japan to market weight. 7/25/24 we said "Japan's TOPIX breaking below 2800-2815 is near-term bearish, suggests it could pull back to its long-term uptrend, or worse."</li>
</ul>


We continue to believe a 1-4-month pullback/consolidation is ongoing. Important supports have been violated, including $110 on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) and $41 on MSCI EM (EEM-US).
We're shifting our outlook to neutral on $ACWI after being bullish since early-November 2023. Major price breakdowns combined with deteriorating market dynamics have increased the odds of a topping pattern.
Also downgrading Japan to market weight. 7/25/24 we said "Japan's TOPIX breaking below 2800-2815 is near-term bearish, suggests it could pull back to its long-term uptrend, or worse."


Downgrading Japan; Stay Defensive; Downgrading Outlook on Global Equities $ACWI to Neutral

Equity Analyst - Asia Consumer Sector, Investory

Devi Subhakesan

Equity Analyst - Asia Consumer Sector

ASIA CONSUMER: INSIGHTS AND INVESTMENT IDEAS

Investory

Investory is a Singapore-based boutique independent equity research firm founded in January 2017 with a primary focus on consumption themes across Asia-Pacific.

We aim to generate investible ideas based on consumption trends and outlook. We screen our ideas on several parameters - product potential, long-term growth and management commitment being the most critical.  We follow a fundamental analysis approach in our stock selection process and are not restricted by market cap.

We aspire to grow into a leading source of unbiased research, free of conflict of interest, for investors yearning for independent and disciplined analysis. 

We also undertake bespoke research mandates to support our Institutional clients’ investment needs.

Our team comprises of professionals with extensive experience in the Asian equity markets, in areas ranging from research, servicing institutional clients and investment management.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/thai-beverage-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3656:1" rel="noopener">Thai Beverage(THBEVSP)</a>'s  proposed swap deal involves acquiring a 41.3% stake in F&amp;N from promoters, seemingly at book value than fair market value, expected in case of an arms length transaction.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fraser-and-neave-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:980:1" rel="noopener">Fraser And Neave (FNN SP)</a>  holds a 20.3% stake in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vietnam-dairy-products-jsc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19635:1" rel="noopener">Vietnam Dairy(VNM VN</a>), Vietnam's leading dairy player, which is now trading at nearly a 40% discount to the investment value.</li>
<li>Understanding TCC Assets' ownership history of F&amp;N may help clarify the deal's valuation rationale.</li>
</ul>



Thai Beverage(THBEVSP)'s  proposed swap deal involves acquiring a 41.3% stake in F&amp;N from promoters, seemingly at book value than fair market value, expected in case of an arms length transaction.

Fraser And Neave (FNN SP)  holds a 20.3% stake in Vietnam Dairy(VNM VN), Vietnam's leading dairy player, which is now trading at nearly a 40% discount to the investment value.
Understanding TCC Assets' ownership history of F&amp;N may help clarify the deal's valuation rationale.


Thai Bev to Get F&N Stake from Promoters At Book Value than Fair Market Value

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>Viettel Construction (CTR VN) and EVN Finance (EVF VN) will be added to the MarketVector Vietnam Local Index at the close on 21 June.</li>
<li>Estimated one-way turnover is 5.2% and that results in a one-way trade of US$27m. There are 3 stocks with more than 1x ADV to buy from passives.</li>
<li>There will be over US$1m to buy in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vinhomes-jsc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27079:1" rel="noopener">Vinhomes (VHM VN)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-for-foreign-trade-of-vietnam" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23054:1" rel="noopener">Bank for Foreign Trade of Vietnam (VCB VN)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vingroup-jsc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13213:1" rel="noopener">Vingroup Jsc (VIC VN)</a>. </li>
</ul>


Viettel Construction (CTR VN) and EVN Finance (EVF VN) will be added to the MarketVector Vietnam Local Index at the close on 21 June.
Estimated one-way turnover is 5.2% and that results in a one-way trade of US$27m. There are 3 stocks with more than 1x ADV to buy from passives.
There will be over US$1m to buy in Vinhomes (VHM VN), Bank for Foreign Trade of Vietnam (VCB VN) and Vingroup Jsc (VIC VN). 


MarketVector Vietnam Local Index Rebalance: Two Adds and Other Changes

Vietnam Dairy Products JSC / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>CEO Group JSC (CEO VN) will be added to the MarketVector Vietnam Local Index at the close on 15 December.</li>
<li>Estimated one-way turnover is 5.24% and that results in a one-way trade of US$30m. There are a couple of stocks with more than 1x ADV to buy from passives.</li>
<li>The largest passive inflows will be in Vingroup Jsc (VIC VN), Vietnam Dairy Products JSC (VNM VN), CEO Group JSC (CEO VN) and Vinhomes (VHM VN). </li>
</ul>


CEO Group JSC (CEO VN) will be added to the MarketVector Vietnam Local Index at the close on 15 December.
Estimated one-way turnover is 5.24% and that results in a one-way trade of US$30m. There are a couple of stocks with more than 1x ADV to buy from passives.
The largest passive inflows will be in Vingroup Jsc (VIC VN), Vietnam Dairy Products JSC (VNM VN), CEO Group JSC (CEO VN) and Vinhomes (VHM VN). 


MarketVector Vietnam Local Index Rebalance: One Add & Other Changes

Vietnam

Vietnam Dairy Products JSC produces dairy foods. The Company produces milk, condensed milk, milk powder, yoghurt, ice cream and cheese. Vietnam Dairy Products also produces cookies, coffee and tea and bottled water.

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Vietnam Dairy Products JSC (VNM VN)

Shift Now to Defensives; Snap-Back Rally Testing Resistance $ACWI $SPX; Neutral Outlook Intact

Shift Now to Defensives (Health Care, Telecommunications, Utilities, and Consumer Staples); Snap-Back Rally Testing Resistance $ACWI $SPX; Neutral...

Vermilion Research

Downgrading Japan; Stay Defensive; Downgrading Outlook on Global Equities $ACWI to Neutral

Downgrading Japan TOPIX, Nikkei; Stay Defensive; Downgrading Outlook on Global Equities $ACWI $EEM to Neutral; Many Risk-Off Signals increase odds...

Vermilion Research

Thai Bev to Get F&N Stake from Promoters At Book Value than Fair Market Value

Majority ownership in F&N will require Thai Bev to consolidate low-return businesses into its books. This stake acquisition offers limited...

Devi Subhakesan

MarketVector Vietnam Local Index Rebalance: Two Adds and Other Changes

Viettel Construction and EVN Finance will be added to the index at the close on 21 June. Estimated one-way turnover is 5.2% and that results in a...

Brian Freitas

MarketVector Vietnam Local Index Rebalance: One Add & Other Changes

CEO Group (CEO VN) is an add. Estimated one-way turnover is 5.24% and that results in a one-way trade of US$30m. There are a couple of stocks with...

Brian Freitas

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