Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Back in 2021, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jardine-matheson-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19718:1" rel="noopener">Jardine Matheson (JM SP)</a> took 84.89%-held <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jardine-strategic-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15081:1" rel="noopener">Jardine Strategic (JS SP)</a> private by way of an Amalgamation. As Matheson was permitted to vote, the outcome was assured. </li>
<li>Less clear are "fair value" appraisal rights afforded Strategic's dissentient shareholders, the outcome of which navigates the Bermuda/UK courts. To date, dissenters have mostly had their way.</li>
<li>Which may have precipitated Matheson opting for a (full value) Scheme for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mandarin-oriental-international-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4773:1" rel="noopener">Mandarin Oriental International (MAND SP)</a>, in which appraisal rights are not afforded.</li>
</ul>


Back in 2021, Jardine Matheson (JM SP) took 84.89%-held Jardine Strategic (JS SP) private by way of an Amalgamation. As Matheson was permitted to vote, the outcome was assured. 
Less clear are "fair value" appraisal rights afforded Strategic's dissentient shareholders, the outcome of which navigates the Bermuda/UK courts. To date, dissenters have mostly had their way.
Which may have precipitated Matheson opting for a (full value) Scheme for Mandarin Oriental International (MAND SP), in which appraisal rights are not afforded.


Matheson's Motive For Avoiding MAND's Dissentient Shareholders

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jardine-cycle-carriage-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:347:1" rel="noopener">Jardine Cycle &amp; Carriage (JCNC SP)</a>'s implied stub value is around its highest-ever level, dating back to 2004. </li>
<li>The simple ratio of JCNC/ <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/astra-international-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:46:1" rel="noopener">Astra International (ASII IJ)</a> is also the highest level outside the brief spikes post-Covid and during the 2008 GFC.</li>
<li>There is no apparent justification for the current valuation. And a takeover from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jardine-matheson-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19718:1" rel="noopener">Jardine Matheson Holdings (JM SP)</a> at these levels appears unrealistic. </li>
</ul>



Jardine Cycle &amp; Carriage (JCNC SP)'s implied stub value is around its highest-ever level, dating back to 2004. 
The simple ratio of JCNC/ Astra International (ASII IJ) is also the highest level outside the brief spikes post-Covid and during the 2008 GFC.
There is no apparent justification for the current valuation. And a takeover from Jardine Matheson Holdings (JM SP) at these levels appears unrealistic. 


<ul>
<li>On the 27th October, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jardine-matheson-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19718:1" rel="noopener">Jardine Matheson Holdings (JM SP)</a> announced an Offer for 88.04%-held <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mandarin-oriental-international-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4773:1" rel="noopener">Mandarin Oriental International (MAND SP)</a>, after MAND concurrently announced the partial sale of OCB to Alibaba.  </li>
<li>MAND will pocket US$925mn from the sale. The privatisation will set Matheson back ~US$500mn. Alibaba is ostensibly funding MAND's privatisation. And then some.  </li>
<li>Last week Matheson announced it will undertake a US$250mn buyback, which is expected to  complete in 2026.</li>
</ul>


On the 27th October, Jardine Matheson Holdings (JM SP) announced an Offer for 88.04%-held Mandarin Oriental International (MAND SP), after MAND concurrently announced the partial sale of OCB to Alibaba.  
MAND will pocket US$925mn from the sale. The privatisation will set Matheson back ~US$500mn. Alibaba is ostensibly funding MAND's privatisation. And then some.  
Last week Matheson announced it will undertake a US$250mn buyback, which is expected to  complete in 2026.


Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>After years of being on the watchlist, Vietnam will be added to a global index in September 2026 as long as progress is made on one key issue.</li>
<li>The final decision will be made in March 2026, and the implementation of the inclusion will take place in phases.</li>
<li>We currently see 21 stocks meeting the inclusion criteria. There are others that are close to the inclusion thresholds, and the list will change over the next few months.</li>
</ul>


After years of being on the watchlist, Vietnam will be added to a global index in September 2026 as long as progress is made on one key issue.
The final decision will be made in March 2026, and the implementation of the inclusion will take place in phases.
We currently see 21 stocks meeting the inclusion criteria. There are others that are close to the inclusion thresholds, and the list will change over the next few months.


Vietnam: Global Index Inclusion & Passive Flows

Consumer Analyst / Channel Surveillance Specialist, Trudence Capital Advisors

Pranav Bhavsar

Consumer Analyst / Channel Surveillance Specialist

Trudence Capital Advisors

Trudence Capital Advisors Private Limited is a SEBI-registered Research Analyst, holding SEBI registration number INH000015747. Our firm is dedicated to providing independent and unbiased research on Indian mid to large-cap companies. Trudence Capital is known for its counter-consensus views, with a focus on forensic research and on-ground primary investigations. Our research approach is thorough, involving detailed analysis of accounting practices and governance, alongside extensive channel checks.

Independent & Unbiased Research

Equity Bottom-Up

Market Vectors Vietnam ETF / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>In this Postcard Edition, we detour and go international—to the streets, shops, and supermarkets of Vietnam. Choosing Vietnam as a country to explore and begin building our Asian Coverage.</li>
<li>Despite strong manufacturing fundamentals, capital markets remain narrow, with limited institutional participation and underrepresentation of export-led sectors.</li>
<li>Vietnam is on our watchlist for its evolving opportunity set, and we will continue tracking IPO activity, MSCI inclusion efforts, and policy reforms.</li>
</ul>


In this Postcard Edition, we detour and go international—to the streets, shops, and supermarkets of Vietnam. Choosing Vietnam as a country to explore and begin building our Asian Coverage.
Despite strong manufacturing fundamentals, capital markets remain narrow, with limited institutional participation and underrepresentation of export-led sectors.
Vietnam is on our watchlist for its evolving opportunity set, and we will continue tracking IPO activity, MSCI inclusion efforts, and policy reforms.


Postcard from Hanoi | Xin Chào Việt Nam

Vietnam

Vietnam Dairy Products JSC produces dairy foods. The Company produces milk, condensed milk, milk powder, yoghurt, ice cream and cheese. Vietnam Dairy Products also produces cookies, coffee and tea and bottled water.

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Vietnam Dairy Products JSC (VNM VN)

Matheson's Motive For Avoiding MAND's Dissentient Shareholders

I see MAND trading at 2.1%/6.9% gross/annualised - assuming late Feb 2026 payment. That's not exciting. I prefer Matheson here.

David Blennerhassett

JCNC's Logic-Defying Valuation

There is no apparent justification for the current level. Expect Matheson to chip away at minorities. But a full-blown Offer appears unrealistic....

David Blennerhassett

On Jardine Matheson's Latest Buyback

Matheson has recovered since my last note. I'd still be setting up the stub here. Or buying outright. Management have proactive with HKL and now...

David Blennerhassett

Vietnam: Global Index Inclusion & Passive Flows

Vietnam could be added to a global index in Sep 2026. The final decision will be made in March. We see 21 stocks currently meeting index inclusion...

Brian Freitas

Postcard from Hanoi | Xin Chào Việt Nam

Exploring Vietnam's potential for growth and investment opportunities, despite challenges in capital markets and institutional participation....

Pranav Bhavsar

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Matheson's Motive For Avoiding MAND's Dissentient Shareholders

I see MAND trading at 2.1%/6.9% gross/annualised - assuming late Feb 2026 payment. That's not exciting. I prefer Matheson here.

David Blennerhassett

JCNC's Logic-Defying Valuation

There is no apparent justification for the current level. Expect Matheson to chip away at minorities. But a full-blown Offer appears unrealistic....

David Blennerhassett

On Jardine Matheson's Latest Buyback

Matheson has recovered since my last note. I'd still be setting up the stub here. Or buying outright. Management have proactive with HKL and now...

David Blennerhassett

Vietnam: Global Index Inclusion & Passive Flows

Vietnam could be added to a global index in Sep 2026. The final decision will be made in March. We see 21 stocks currently meeting index inclusion...

Brian Freitas

Postcard from Hanoi | Xin Chào Việt Nam

​Exploring Vietnam's potential for growth and investment opportunities, despite challenges in capital markets and institutional participation....

Pranav Bhavsar

Exploring Vietnam's potential for growth and investment opportunities, despite challenges in capital markets and institutional participation....