Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jardine-cycle-carriage-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:347:1" rel="noopener">Jardine Cycle &amp; Carriage (JCNC SP)</a>'s implied stub value is around its highest-ever level, dating back to 2004. </li>
<li>The simple ratio of JCNC/ <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/astra-international-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:46:1" rel="noopener">Astra International (ASII IJ)</a> is also the highest level outside the brief spikes post-Covid and during the 2008 GFC.</li>
<li>There is no apparent justification for the current valuation. And a takeover from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jardine-matheson-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19718:1" rel="noopener">Jardine Matheson Holdings (JM SP)</a> at these levels appears unrealistic. </li>
</ul>



Jardine Cycle &amp; Carriage (JCNC SP)'s implied stub value is around its highest-ever level, dating back to 2004. 
The simple ratio of JCNC/ Astra International (ASII IJ) is also the highest level outside the brief spikes post-Covid and during the 2008 GFC.
There is no apparent justification for the current valuation. And a takeover from Jardine Matheson Holdings (JM SP) at these levels appears unrealistic. 


Equity Bottom-Up

Mandarin Oriental International / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Hong Kong is - very gradually - rolling back Covid restrictions</li>
<li>That's a welcome relief for tourists, and for hospitality companies dependent on tourism. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mandarin-oriental-international-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4773:1" rel="noopener">Mandarin Oriental International (MAND SP)</a> is trading cheap at 0.7x P/B against 1.8x on average (five years) pre-Covid.</li>
</ul>


Hong Kong is - very gradually - rolling back Covid restrictions
That's a welcome relief for tourists, and for hospitality companies dependent on tourism. 

Mandarin Oriental International (MAND SP) is trading cheap at 0.7x P/B against 1.8x on average (five years) pre-Covid.


Mandarin Oriental (MAND SP): Life Is Suite

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jardine-matheson-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19718:1" rel="noopener">Jardine Matheson Holdings (JM SP)</a> (JMH) has shed ~8% since MSCI said it was cutting the conglomerate's weighing in two indices.</li>
<li>The reweighting follows the cancellation of the 59% shareholding in JMH held by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jardine-strategic-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15081:1" rel="noopener">Jardine Strategic Holdings (JS SP)</a>, which was privatised last year.</li>
<li>I see the discount to NAV at ~40%, right at the 12-month -2 STD level. JMH bought back ~149mn shares in the 1Q22, paying ~US$59/share, 17% above the current price.</li>
</ul>



Jardine Matheson Holdings (JM SP) (JMH) has shed ~8% since MSCI said it was cutting the conglomerate's weighing in two indices.
The reweighting follows the cancellation of the 59% shareholding in JMH held by Jardine Strategic Holdings (JS SP), which was privatised last year.
I see the discount to NAV at ~40%, right at the 12-month -2 STD level. JMH bought back ~149mn shares in the 1Q22, paying ~US$59/share, 17% above the current price.


Travis Lundy

<ul>
<li>Yesterday, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/united-tractors-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:698:1" rel="noopener">United Tractors (UNTR IJ)</a> announced a large share buyback. It's a big buyback but perhaps not as big as the headlines (which say "up to 20%"). </li>
<li>The buyback is for 5 trillion rupiah which is about 5% of market cap, and will be conducted on-market over the next three months.</li>
<li>Looking at the early market reaction, my opinion is that the market does not seem to understand the consequences.</li>
</ul>


Yesterday, United Tractors (UNTR IJ) announced a large share buyback. It's a big buyback but perhaps not as big as the headlines (which say "up to 20%"). 
The buyback is for 5 trillion rupiah which is about 5% of market cap, and will be conducted on-market over the next three months.
Looking at the early market reaction, my opinion is that the market does not seem to understand the consequences.


United Tractors (UNTR IJ) Buyback - Sure to Be Impactful

Greatview Aseptic Packaging / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>China's State Administration for Market Regulation has <a href="https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2024/0917/2024091700839.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">formally accepted</a>  <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shandong-xinjufeng-technology-packaging-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36744:1" rel="noopener">Shandong Xinjufeng Technology  (301296 CH)</a> (XJF)'s filing. That's positive. SAMR previously okayed XJF's initial 28.22% stake from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jardine-matheson-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19718:1" rel="noopener">Jardine Matheson (JM SP)</a>.</li>
<li>No new update on co-founders Jeff Bi and Gang Hong's <a href="https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2024/0806/2024080601644.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">non-binding Offer</a>. </li>
<li>Separately, the EGM requisitioned by XJF to appoint two XJF-friendly directors progresses.</li>
</ul>


China's State Administration for Market Regulation has formally accepted  Shandong Xinjufeng Technology  (301296 CH) (XJF)'s filing. That's positive. SAMR previously okayed XJF's initial 28.22% stake from Jardine Matheson (JM SP).
No new update on co-founders Jeff Bi and Gang Hong's non-binding Offer. 
Separately, the EGM requisitioned by XJF to appoint two XJF-friendly directors progresses.


GAPack (468 HK): SAMR Rests On XJF's Filing

Singapore

Jardine Matheson Holdings Limited is a multinational enterprise with a portfolio of businesses focused on the Asia-Pacific region. The Group's activities include financial services, supermarkets, consumer marketing, engineering and construction, automobile trading, insurance broking, property investment, and hotels.

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Jardine Matheson Holdings (JM SP)

JCNC's Logic-Defying Valuation

There is no apparent justification for the current level. Expect Matheson to chip away at minorities. But a full-blown Offer appears unrealistic....

David Blennerhassett

Mandarin Oriental (MAND SP): Life Is Suite

Mandarin Oriental is trading cheap at 0.7x P/B against 1.8x on average (5 years) pre-Covid. Business will continue to improve from here. The...

David Blennerhassett

Jardine Matheson (JM SP): MSCI Blues

Given JMH's strong underlying operating performance, the 40% discount to NAV - one in which there are discounts of discounts, JMH is attractive...

David Blennerhassett

United Tractors (UNTR IJ) Buyback - Sure to Be Impactful

United Tractors - Indonesia's largest heavy equipment dealer and a subsidiary of Astra International - has announced a large buyback to be...

Travis Lundy

GAPack (468 HK): SAMR Rests On XJF's Filing

Trading at a 6.8% gross spread. Bi/Hong may still come through with a firm counter. But I think XJF's Offer still scrapes in irrespectively....

David Blennerhassett

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